From Congress Daily AM (subscription only).
Senate Majority Leader Frist is expected to take an open-ended approach to the looming floor fight over eliminating the ability to filibuster judicial nominations, opting to allow members from both parties to fully air their concerns and beliefs before forcing a floor vote on the rule changes, a senior GOP aide said Wednesday.
Barring an emergency, Frist is expected to essentially suspend all legislative activity on the floor until the judicial nomination fight is resolved, the aide explained.
As a result, the debate will likely dominate the remaining legislative days on the calendar before the Memorial Day recess and involve long days of lengthy, back-to-back floor speeches.
Frist is not expected to announce until shortly before the fight begins which of the four judicial nominees on the Senate calendar will be used to trigger the debate.
Up until now, most of the filibuster dispute has played out in the media and off the Senate floor in dueling news conferences, rallies, reports and other events designed to raise the profile of the fight.
But with the dispute now in the final lap, the battle shifts to the Senate floor. The GOP aide explained that Frist will not go into the debate with a fixed time limit in mind so as to allow a full debate.
The aide also said that despite the often heated political rhetoric, lawmakers are fully aware of the gravity of the potentially precedent-setting rule change and most are expected to want to talk on the issue at length.
Noting that former Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, this week gave a 30-minute speech on the issue, the GOP aide quipped, "That's the condensed version of a three-hour speech."
The floor fight will follow a last-minute push by both sides to bring the public and a handful of fence-sitting Republicans into their respective folds.
On the Republican side, Frist will continue to use his ramped-up message operation to make the case for invoking the so-called nuclear option to ensure nominees get an up-or-down vote in the Senate.
Frist will also dispatch members of his Conference to their home states armed with sample opinion pieces, talking points and study materials.
Lawmakers have been booked on talk radio and television programs across the country to make the GOP case.
Open-ended debate? Frist doesn't have the votes and hopes that having the issue on the floor of the Senate for several days will be enough to bear pressure on the wayward members of his caucus.
Some people have been frustrated at efforts within the Democratic caucus (including Reid) to craft a compromise with the other side. However, that is a necessary component to stopping this thing in its tracks.
Remember, the end game isn't seven judges nominated to the appelate court. It's the Supreme Court. Therefore, letting some of these judges through to have the filibuster handy for the next Supreme Court battle is a legit tradeoff.
And from a strategic standpoint, keep in mind that the GOP will suffer a serious bloody nose if Frist loses. However, the only way he loses is if he suffers six defections within his ranks. So how does Reid ensure he gets those six votes? Well, not by being an unbending, uncompromising ass.
Those Republicans that vote with Democrats are going to need a great deal of political cover, lest they get hit hard by their base and the GOP leadership. The easiest way to give them that cover is to point to repeated efforts by Democrats to compromise, including deals that would've essentially given most of these judges an up or down vote.
Talking to my sources on the Hill, no one has any clue how this will turn out. Reid is playing his cards close to his chest. But Frist's actions speak louder than words. If he had the votes, this thing would've happened by now. Instead, he'll hold an open-ended "debate" to try and twist as many arms as he can. It's up to Reid and his GOP allies, whoever they may be, to run out the clock.