Mainline Christianity is dying worldwide. Only
8% of the English attend Christian church services weekly. The decline took place largely in a single generation. It has been mirrored across much of Europe and Canada (Ireland is probably the most notable exception), although Eastern Europe is seeing Christianity grow from a baseline of near zero to a real presences. A parallel slide has taken place in the "mainline" Christian denominations. The United States is a nation whose religious extremes are growing.
One measure of that is
net conversions in and out of different religious identities. On one hand the are big gains (in order of percentage net conversions) in those who identify as Evangelical Christians, Non-Denominational Christians, Pentecostals, Jehovah's Witnesses, 7th Day Adventists, those who simply identify as "Christians", those who view their identity as part of the Assemblies of God and the Church of God (all conservative leaning religious identifications). On the other hand there are big gains (in order of percentage net conversion) in those who view themselves as having no religion, Buddhist, Muslim and Episcopalian. Net conversions are away from (in order of percentages): a general identity as a Protestant, Catholicism, the Methodists, the United Church of Christ, the Presybeterians, religious Judaism, and Lutheranism (the "religious middle"). Similar trends are present in overall total identification trends (with immigration and birth rates compensating for conversions away from the faith in Catholicism).
The changes aren't just in numbers. The religious right has a growing political influence. Mainline Christian denominations are all but irrelevant politically. The politics of the left is growing increasingly secular.
We are seeing trends towards schism. After decades where the big stories at annual meetings of religious organizations were displays of artwork collected from member congregations and mass choir performances, the meetings of Episcopalians, Roman Catholics, Presybertians and Methodists have become swirling pools of political intrigue rift with talks of schism, reform, and preserving tradition as it is threatened.
The Episcopal example points to a particularly interesting trend that we will see again. The conservatives in the Church are allying with the churches African wing. Evangelical and Catholic Christianity are also on the rise in Africa. The most vibrant part of the Christian scene today in Britain is in its immigrant communities. American Catholicism and the American Evangelical movements are both being fueld by Christian immigration from Latin America.
Places like North Dakota and rural Nebraska have seen Evangelical churches that scarcely had a presence in these regions before, replace declining Lutheran and Catholic churches. The Mormons are well on their way to becoming the leading religious group of the American West.
What could happen?
- Mainline Christianity could wither. This is the straightline projection. The candle burns at both ends and American mainline Christians follow the example of their European cousins. Congregations grow empty and fewer and fewer young voices fill their churches. Some seek the excitement of more Evangelical Churches, some leave religion all together.
- Evangelical Christianity could moderate
Lutherans, Presybeterians, the early reformed Churches that gave rise to the United Church of Christ and Methodists were all at the cutting edge of religious fervor in their days and moderated over decades and centuries. Big institutions have a natural tendency in that direction. Growth leads to moderation. Today's Pentecostals could be tomorrows Methodists (in the religious ecology). Churches that once preached against evolution and homosexuality, could start getting concerned about social justice and nurturing health marriages.
3. Schism and declining numbers could reinvigorate old denominations
The departure of conservatives from mainline churches should leave behind those who have a more inclusive and historical worldview. As smaller organizations, they would also be more able to change. Nature abhores a vacuum. The rise of a strongly conservative Christian movement could trigger a strongly liberal one in reaction. Empty pews could fill with middle class young people who want to make a difference.
4. New immigrant churches could replace old ones.
Hidden in the history of most moderate American Christian denominations today are hordes of immigrant churches whose members had different languages, but which evolved and merged as language and assimilation took hold. The immigrant churches of today could be the backbone of tommorrow's religious middle.
The Conseqeuences
If the middle fades away and nothing replaces it, our nation will become even more polarized along red blue lines.
If the religious right moderates, the religious scene in 2060 might look a lot like that in 1960, bland, institutional, and a seemingly unlikely font for future political and cultural activism.
If the religious left revives, the nation might look more like it did in the late 18th century and early 19th century, alive with religious driven social reforms in the direction of modernity, instead of away from it.
And, if immigrant churches come to fill the gap, our nation might look again as it did a couple of decades ago, with a left, middle and right wing, replacing today's center which seems pressed to hold.
I don't know what is coming, but suspect that the straight line prediction is not the right one. Social forces do not exist in a vacuum. They respond to each other and twist and change in unpredictable ways. If I've entirely missed a likely direction, I'd like to know.