Whether it is Bush or Kerry that is leading in all the popular vote polling, as we all know from the 2000 election it is the Electoral College that choses our next president. Thus, with only 44 days to go until Americans in each of the 50 states cast their ballots, it is the state-by-state polling that becomes important.
As of this date, the news is getting grim for John Kerry. Blue states from the 2000 map are beginning to see signs of Bush red. Unfortunately for the Senator, the 2000 electoral vote margin was paper thin and he has no room to lose one state, let alone a few.
Based on a average of current state polling, mixed with a gut hunch on where things are in each state (based on state voting history, etc), this is where I think things stand as of today, Sunday, the 19th of September:
Bush 309
Kerry 229
Leaving the blue column and going red...Pennsylvania (Bush up an average of 3 points); Wisconsin (Bush up an average of five points). In other "battleground" states, Bush is leading comfortably. In Ohio he is up 8, in Missouri hs is up over 7, in New Hampshire (Kerry's own backyard) he is up NINE in a recent poll, and in the "grand prize" state of Florida he is leading by a comfortable margin.
The problem? Iraq. John Kerry seems to be twisted and tormented over how to approach Iraq while Bush continues to lie and lie and lie about our successes over there, when a reality check would show that he has failed miserably. As former Clinton speech writer Paul Glastris points out on todays NY Times op-ed page, Kerry needs to take the battle over Iraq directly to Mr. Bush. If Glastris were writing a speech for Kerry, this is what the Democratic candidate would say: "I voted to give the authority he needed to unite the world in confronting Iraq. He abused that authority. But I trusted him, and now I share responsibility for the failing situation in Iraq. As president, I will take reponsibility for fixing it - and that, Mr. President, makes one of us."
Heavy words. Heavy words that Kerry ought to take to heart. For fighting Bush on his own turf is the only way Kerry will win this race.
As to the polls...the only explanation I have is that the people of the United States are in denial. They'd rather not hear about the enormous problems this administration has caused - problems that our children will pay dearly for. Americans would rather stick their fingers in their ears and walk away blurting "la-la-la-la-la."
They'd rather turn on the news and hear about Scott Petersen and Michael Jackson and Martha Stewart.
If the current trend continues, and Bush coasts to victory on Election Day, I suspect many Americans will wake up November 3rd with the biggest case of buyers' remorse in the history of American presidential elections.
Cross posted at WayneMattson.blospot.com
Polling at http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html