My weekly ranking of who I think Kerry is most likely to choose.
- John Edwards. Not much movement either way. To the extent that Bush is hurt by Clarke, this helps him because it lessens the "stature gap" between Kerry and Bush. Which, in turn, makes Edwards' relative lack of foreign policy experience less important. Faux poll showing that a Kerry-Edwards ticket runs five points better than Kerry alone can't hurt his chances.
- Dick Gephardt. Continues his slow but steady climb. Polls showing that Pennslvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia are close just enhance his chances.
- Bob Graham. The week's big winner. Clarke's revelations play to one of his strengths, intelligence. Stood up for Clarke, and to Frist, and looked good doing so. And, of course, there's always Florida.
- Wesley Clark. The week's big loser. Anything that lessens Bush's advantage on national security and foreign policy, lessens Clark's chances of being chosen. Plus, would there by any Clark/Clarke confusion? Just a thought.
- Bill Richardson. Not much movement. Interview he gave during the week makes it pretty clear that he hasn't totally ruled it out. But insiders still say he's not very enthusiastic about it. Obvious weight gain may also be a sign he's not anticipating leaving Santa Fe any time soon.
- Evan Bayh. Needs to come up with an independent poll showing that he adds points in Ohio to have any chance.
- Bill Nelson. Graham rising means Nelson falling. While he's got the qualifications, and the geography, the loss of his seat to the republicans should the ticket win is probably too great a hurdle to overcome.
Timing prediction: Still say in about 5 or 6 weeks.