Today on the news, the Southern primaries will get prime attention, at least they should. They are important.
Some people are pointing to the polls and saying "Oh Kerry is way ahead, this means nothing." WRONG!! It means a lot.
Kerry winning in Tennessee and Virginia pretty much destroys the arguments of John Edwards that he is the only Democrat that can compete in the South.
Let's not kid ourselves. These are Democratic primaries, and independents vote in some. A win by Kerry in Tennessee, doesn't mean he has a great shot at winning TN this fall. But it casts a huge shadow on the Edwards campaign. How can a man be competitive in the South against a Republican, when he cannot even win "in his backyard" amongst his own voters?
A Kerry victory in both states tonite will finish, in my opinion, the Edwards and Clark candidacies. Edwards had a good run, and I hope will re-consider the VP slot, assuming Kerry wants him for that. But the problem is unavoidable. If you can't win amongst Democrats, how on Earth can we expect you to be competitive against President Bush in the South?
The South is not fertile ground for Democrats these days. THey can be, and will be again someday. But right now, it's not. The Democrats have a clear shot in only 3 of the 11 former Confederate states as of right now. LA, AR, and FL. They have an outside chance in TN and VA as of right now.
The advantage to this is, win 2 of those, and minimum you get is 15 electoral votes. The argument is often made that the Dems can't win without some Southern States. It's true when you reverse it too. Bush cannot win without sweeping the South, (according to 2000 trends and current poll #'s).
To take the Southern states, and any swing state, we need the strongest candidate possible. To me, it will be unmistakably clear that if Edwards does not win tonight, at least one, he has no clear shot at the nomination. His whole argument as the "Kerry Alternative" is that he can win in the South. If he can't win Southern Primaries, expecting him to win in the general election is a bit far-reaching.
I'll be watching, with Papa John's Pizza and beer. Kerry I think tonite can lock up the nomination with a sweep. Clark and Edwards will disappear. Dean right now is like a one legged man in an ass kickin contest. If he is the only alternative to Kerry, this nomination is locked.
