This entry comes from the Democratic Underground
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Edited on Mon May-02-05 01:50 AM by TruthIsAll
To quote Febble:
"E-M made the hypothesis that Bush voters were more reluctant to respond. A prediction flowing from this is that where there was more opportunity to avoid being polled, the error should be greater. This was so, and thus their hypothesis was supported".
This hypothesis was contradicted by E-M in their FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL.
More in extended entry ....
This hypothesis was contradicted by E-M in their FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL.
Fact 1
Gore won the popular vote with 50.999 million to Bush's 50.456.
Fact 2
The FINAL 13660 National Exit Poll states that Bush 2000 voters comprised 52.57 million (43%) of the total 122.26 million who voted in 2004. That is 2.11 million more than the 50.456 million who actually voted for him.
Fact 3
Gore voters comprised just 37% (45.23 million) of the 2004 vote.
Question 1
If Bush voters were reluctant to respond, how come the Final 13660 National Exit Poll indicates that 104% of Bush 2000 voters came to the polls while only 89% of Gore voters did?
Fact 4
The National Exit Poll at 13047 respondents had the split at 41%/39%.
Fact 5
The Bush 2000 weight could not have been 41% at 13047 respondents, much less 43% at 13660.
Fact 6
The maximum possible Bush 2000 voter turnout/2004 vote was 39.82%, after reducing his turnout by the approximate 1.77 million Bush voters who have died since 2000.
Fact 7
Even 39.82% is too high, since at least some Bush 2000 voters stayed home this time.
Fact 8
The 52.57 million Bush turnout is overstated by 3.88 million, when you add the 1.77 million resurrected Bush 2000 voters to the 2.11 million phantoms.
Hypothesis 1
These 3.88 million Bush voters must have been very motivated, indeed.
Fact 9
According to the NEP, only 45.23 million of Gore's 2004 voters participated in 2004, since .37*122.26 = 45.23 million.
Fact 10
If the 37% Gore weight is accurate, then you must believe that 5.77 million Gore voters (11.31%) were reluctant to vote in 2004 and stayed home.
Fact 11
To accept as accurate the 37% Gore weight, you must also accept that the 43% Bush weight is also accurate.
Fact 12
But the 43% Bush weight is impossible - at least 3.2% too high. Therefore, the 37% Gore weight must be impossible - and at least 3.2% too low.
Question 2
Was there a RGR (Reluctant Gore Responder)?
Fact 13
Kerry was the 51-48% winner at 13047 respondents.
Question 3
What happened to change the 41/39% to 43%/37% over the final 613 respondents? Bush won the FINAL by 51-48%.
Fact 14
The IMPOSSIBLE 43% Exuberant Bush Responder invalidates the FINAL EXIT POLL, which matched to the recorded the vote for a Bush 51-48% win.
Fact 15
The IMPOSSIBLE 43% weight indicates an Exuberant Bush 2000 Responder (at least in the Exit Poll) which is at variance with the Reluctant Bush Responder hypothesis.
Fact 16
The IMPOSSIBLE 43% weight is a necessary condition for Bush to win.
Fact 17
The 41% Bush 2000 voter weight, though EXTREMELY IMPLAUSIBLE, still showed that Kerry won the first 13047 repondents by 51-48%.
Fact 18
If the weights were a more realistic 40% Gore/39% Bush, then Kerry wins in a landslide - by at least 7 million votes.
Fact 19
The final 613 respondents in the National Exit Poll had to have voted 100% for Bush to overcome Kerry's lead among the first 13047.
Hypothesis 2
Bush voters must have been EXTREMELY EXUBERANT to do that.