Here is the latest compilation of primary poll results. Amazingly, the final NH polls did a good job of predicting the outcome. This week, there are new polls shown in
bold out of AZ, CT, DE, FL, MO, ND, OK, SC, and VA.
Our Campaigns and
DC Political Report are the best sources I've found. The calendar comes from
Politics1.
Kerry hopes to ride his momentum to several victories on February 3rd, although Clark and Edwards seem secure in winning at least one state each.
If John Kerry maintains his momentum, he can ride the wave of soft support to the nomination. If he hits a roadblock, however, his soft support could collapse in favor of another candidate (just ask Howard Dean how this works).
January 13
DC: Dean 42.7, Sharpton 34.3, Braun 11.6, Kucinich 8.3
11/21-11/23: Dean 45, Sharpton 11, Braun 8, Kucinich 4 (PSR)
January 19
IA: Kerry 37.7, Edwards 31.9, Dean 18.0, Gephardt 10.5, Kucinich 1.3, Uncommitted 0.5, Clark 0.1, Lieberman 0, Sharpton 0
01/14-01/16: Kerry 25 (+2), Dean 22 (0), Edwards 21 (+3), Gephardt 18 (-1), Clark 2 (-1), Kucinich 2 (0), Lieberman 1 (0), Sharpton 0.1 (-0.1) (ZI)
01/13-01/16: Kerry 26, Edwards 23, Dean 22, Gephardt 18, Kucinich 3, Clark 2, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (DMR)
01/13-01/15: Dean 24 (-5), Edwards 22 (+5), Kerry 21 (0), Gephardt 20 (-2) (SUSA)
01/12-01/14: Dean 22 (-7), Kerry 21 (+3), Edwards 18 (+10), Gephardt 18 (-7), Kucinich 5 (+3), Clark 2 (-1), Lieberman 1 (-1), Sharpton 0 (R2K)
01/05-01/08: Dean 30, Gephardt 23, Kerry 18, Edwards 11, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Lieberman 2, Braun 0, Sharpton 0 (LAT)
12/??-12/??: Dean 28 (+4), Gephardt 23 (+2), Kerry 21 (0) (MG)
11/18-12/04: Dean 29, Gephardt 21, Kerry 18, Edwards 5, Kucinich 4, Clark 3, Braun 1, Lieberman 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
11/02-11/05: Gephardt 27, Dean 20, Kerry 15, Edwards 5, Lieberman 5, Clark 4, Kucinich 3, Braun 1, Sharpton 1 (IP)
January 27
NH: Kerry 38.4, Dean 26.4, Clark 12.4, Edwards 12.1, Lieberman 8.6, Kucinich 1.4, Sharpton 0.2
01/25-01/26: Kerry 37 (+6), Dean 24 (+2), Edwards 12 (+4), Clark 9 (-5), Lieberman 9 (+2), Kucinich 3 (+1), Sharpton 0.1 (-0.9) (ZI)
01/24-01/26: Kerry 35 (-1), Dean 25 (+10), Edwards 15 (+2), Clark 13 (-6), Lieberman 6 (0), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 0 (0) (ARG)
01/23-01/26: Kerry 33 (+20), Dean 28 (-7), Edwards 15 (+9), Clark 12 (-14), Lieberman 7 (-2) (SUSA)
01/24-01/25: Kerry 37 (+3), Dean 17 (-2), Edwards 12 (+1), Clark 11 (-3), Lieberman 7 (+3), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 0 (BG)
01/23-01/25: Kerry 37, Dean 22, Edwards 12, Clark 11, Lieberman 8, Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (FN)
01/22-01/24: Kerry 38 (+8), Dean 25 (0), Lieberman 12 (+4), Clark 10 (-8), Edwards 9 (-2), Kucinich 2 (-2), Sharpton 0 (0) (U/C/G)
01/22-01/23: Kerry 29 (+17), Dean 20 (-12), Clark 14 (-3), Edwards 8 (+1), Lieberman 6 (-5), Kucinich 1 (SU)
01/20-01/23: Kerry 32, Dean 19, Clark 17, Edwards 14, Lieberman 6, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 0 (LAT)
01/21-01/22: Kerry 34, Dean 19, Clark 14, Edwards 11, Lieberman 4 (BH)
01/18-01/20: Dean 29 (-17), Kerry 24 (+7), Clark 18 (+8), Edwards 8 (+4), Lieberman 5 (-2), Kucinich 3 (+2), Sharpton 0 (-1) (UNH)
01/05-01/08: Dean 34 (-7), Clark 14 (+1), Kerry 13 (-4), Gephardt 7 (+3), Lieberman 7 (+1), Edwards 4 (-2), Kucinich 2 (+1), Sharpton 1 (+1), Braun 0 (0) (CM)
12/06-12/08: Dean 41, Kerry 15, Clark 14, Lieberman 9, Edwards 6, Gephardt 4 (RR)
12/01-12/04: Dean 39 (+6), Kerry 14 (-5), Clark 5 (-2), Edwards 5 (+1), Lieberman 4 (+1), Gephardt 3 (-1), Braun 1 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (+1) (FPC)
11/17-12/01: Dean 34, Kerry 20, Clark 8, Lieberman 8, Gephardt 5, Edwards 4, Braun 1, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (PR)
11/11-11/13: Dean 44, Kerry 23, Edwards 7, Gephardt 6, Lieberman 6, Clark 3, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (MI)
10/16-10/20: Dean 33, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 5 (R2K)
February 3
AZ: 01/28-01/29: Kerry 27 (+24), Clark 18 (-1), Dean 13 (-9), Lieberman 10 (+3), Edwards 8 (+4) (AR)
01/27-01/29: Kerry 38, Clark 17, Dean 12, Edwards 6, Lieberman 6, Kucinich 2, Sharpton 1 (ZI)
01/24-01/26: Kerry 30 (+25), Clark 24 (-15), Dean 23 (-9), Lieberman 10 (+2), Edwards 7, Gephardt 4 (-6) (SUSA)
01/23-01/25: Kerry 24 (+18), Clark 21 (+6), Edwards 15 (+14), Dean 10 (-16), Lieberman 7 (-2), Kucinich 0 (-1), Sharpton 0 (0) (ARG)
01/06-01/12: Dean 29 (+10), Clark 26 (+12), Lieberman 6 (-3), Gephardt 4 (-1), Kerry 3 (-6), Edwards 3 (+2), Sharpton 2 (0), Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (BRC)
11/14-12/09: Dean 22, Clark 12, Lieberman 9, Kerry 8, Gephardt 7, Braun 2, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (NAU)
DE: 01/28-01/29: Kerry 27, Lieberman 16, Dean 14, Edwards 9, Clark 8, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
01/12-01/14: Dean 27, Clark 18, Sharpton 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 10, Kerry 7, Edwards 6 (SUSA)
11/??-11/??: Lieberman 19, Dean 15, Gephardt 12, Clark 10, Kerry 8, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 0, Kucinich 0 (MD)
MO: 01/28-01/29: Kerry 46, Edwards 15, Dean 7, Clark 6, Lieberman 3, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
01/27-01/29: Kerry 45, Edwards 11, Dean 9, Lieberman 4, Clark 3, Sharpton 2, Kucinich 1 (ZI)
01/26-01/28: Kerry 41 (+35), Edwards 17 (+12), Dean 16 (-3), Clark 8 (-7) (SUSA)
01/??-01/??: Kerry 25, Edwards 9, Dean 6, Clark 3, Gephardt 3, Lieberman 2, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (KCS)
09/08-09/09: Gephardt 36, Dean 22, Kerry 14, Lieberman 10, Edwards 5, Clark 2, Braun 0, Kucinich 0, Sharpton 0 (R2K)
NM: 01/12-01/15: Dean 18 (0), Clark 16, Kerry 8 (-2), Lieberman 8 (-6), Gephardt 7 (0), Kucinich 6 (+3), Edwards 4 (+3), Penna 0 (AJ)
ND: 01/26-01/28: Kerry 31, Clark 15, Edwards 6, Dean 5, Lieberman 2, Kucinich 1 (TFW)
OK: 01/27-01/29: Clark 27, Kerry 19, Edwards 17, Dean 9, Lieberman 5, Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ZI)
01/23-01/25: Clark 23 (+2), Edwards 18 (+15), Kerry 17 (+15), Lieberman 10 (+1), Dean 8 (-16), Kucinich 1, Sharpton 1 (ARG)
01/21-01/22: Clark 32 (0), Edwards 23 (+16), Kerry 17 (+12), Dean 10 (-11), Lieberman 8 (-3) (SUSA)
12/??-12/??: Lieberman 10, Clark 9, Dean 9, Gephardt 8, Kerry 5, Edwards 3, Sharpton 2, Kucinich 1 (OKP)
09/22-09/30: Clark 16.5, Dean 12.7, Lieberman 11.6, Edwards 11, Gephardt 10.5, Kerry 3.5 (TW)
SC: 01/27-01/29: Edwards 25 (+18), Kerry 24 (+20), Dean 9 (-2), Clark 8 (-1), Lieberman 5 (-4), Sharpton 5 (-2), Kucinich 0 (-0.3) (ZI)
01/24-01/26: Edwards 32 (+15), Clark 17 (-6), Dean 16 (-9), Kerry 13 (+11), Sharpton 10 (-2), Lieberman 5 (0), Kucinich 1 (0) (SUSA)
01/21-01/23: Edwards 21 (+10), Kerry 17 (+15), Sharpton 15 (+3), Clark 14 (+2), Dean 9 (-7), Lieberman 5 (-2) (ARG)
11/18-12/01: Edwards 16, Clark 10, Gephardt 10, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 8, Dean 7, Kerry 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0 (PR)
11/20-11/23: Edwards 17, Sharpton 12, Dean 11, Clark 10, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Braun 6, Kerry 5, Kucinich 1 (FG)
10/02-10/13: Edwards 14, Gephardt 13, Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Dean 10, Sharpton 10, Kerry 8 (DC)
10??-10/??: Edwards 23, Dean 12, Lieberman 12, Clark 9, Gephardt 7, Sharpton 6, Kerry 5, Braun 4, Kucinich 1 (GSG)
February 7
MI: 01/??-01/??: Dean 32, Gephardt 16, Kerry 7, Lieberman 6, Clark 5, Sharpton 5 (DN)
10/06-10/09: Dean 21, Clark 15, Gephardt 13, Kerry 13, Lieberman 12, Braun 4, Sharpton 4, Kucinich 2, Edwards 1 (E/M)
WA: 12/??-12/??: Dean, Clark (EP)
February 8
ME: 09/13-09/26: Dean 18, Kerry 18, Clark 14, Gephardt 12, Lieberman 11, Braun 3, Kucinich 1, Edwards 0, Sharpton 0 (CI)
February 10
DC:
TN: 01/05-01/07: Dean 26, Clark 25, Lieberman 9, Gephardt 8, Edwards 7, Kerry 5 (SUSA)
10/20-11/08: Clark 10.6, Lieberman 10.6, Dean 6.3, Edwards 5.9, Gephardt 5.7, Kerry 4.1, Braun 2.3, Sharpton 1.3, Kucinich 0.4 (MTSU)
VA: 01/27-01/29: Kerry 32, Clark 17, Edwards 17, Dean 14, Sharpton 9 (SUSA)
12/03-12/05: Dean 21, Lieberman 13, Clark 11, Gephardt 8, Kerry 7, Sharpton 6, Edwards 5, Kucinich 1, Braun 0 (MD)
February 14
NV:
February 17
WI: 12/13-12/16: Dean 33 (+20), Lieberman 12 (-2), Clark 11 (-7), Gephardt 9 (-2), Kerry 6 (-1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Edwards 2 (+1), Braun 1 (-2), Sharpton 0 (0) (WP)
10/27-11/06: Dean 21, Lieberman 16, Clark 13 (SNC)
February 24
HI:
ID:
UT:
March 2
CA: 01/20-01/22: Kerry 31, Dean 26, Clark 14, Edwards 12 (SUSA)
01/02-01/15: Dean 30, Clark 13, Gephardt 9, Kerry 9, Lieberman 9, Braun 2, Kucinich 2, Sharpton 1 (RR)
01/05-01/13: Dean 25 (+11), Clark 20 (+3), Lieberman 12 (-2), Kerry 7 (-2), Gephardt 6 (+1), Kucinich 3 (+2), Sharpton 3 (-1), Edwards 3 (+2) (FP)
01/03-01/11: Dean 31, Clark 14, Lieberman 8, Kerry 6, Gephardt 5 (PPI)
09/25-09/27: Clark 19, Dean 15, Lieberman 14, Kerry 8, Gephardt 5, Braun 4, Edwards 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 3, Graham 0 (U/C/G)
CT: 01/27-01/28: Kerry 43, Lieberman 18, Dean 8, Edwards 6, Clark 4 (UConn)
11/12-11/18: Lieberman 28 (-5), Dean 23 (+6), Kerry 14 (0), Clark 9 (-5), Gephardt 8 (+3), Braun 3 (+2), Edwards 3 (0), Kucinich 1 (+1), Sharpton 1 (-1) (QU)
GA: 12/15-12/16: Dean 18.8 (+11.4), Gephardt 7.5 (-4.0), Clark 6.5 (-6.6), Sharpton 5.6 (+2.3), Lieberman 5.5 (-3.5), Kerry 2.7 (-2.2), Braun 2.6 (-2.8), Edwards 1.9 (-1.9), Kucinich 0.2 (-0.6) (AJC)
10??-10/??: Clark 12, Lieberman 11, Gephardt 10, Dean 9, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kerry 2, Kucinich 0 (SRG)
MD: 01/02-01/12: Dean 25, Clark 12, Lieberman 10, Gephardt 8, Kerry 6, Braun 3, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2 (PSR)
10/20-10/26: Dean 23 (-2), Lieberman 20 (-3), Clark 11 (), Gephardt 9 (-1), Edwards 7 (+) Kerry 7 (-4), Sharpton 6 (+1), Braun 2 (?), Kucinich 1 (?) (GA)
MA: 11/19-11/22: Dean 27, Kerry 24, Clark 6 (BG)
11/19-11/21: Dean 33, Kerry 24, Clark 7, Lieberman 4, Gephardt 3 (BH)
MN:
NY: 01/06-01/08: Dean 26 (+8), Lieberman 12 (-4), Clark 10 (-4), Sharpton 8 (+3), Gephardt 6 (-4), Kerry 6 (-3), Braun 2 (0), Edwards 2 (0), Kucinich 2 (0) (MI)
11/12-11/15: Dean 21, Clark 10, Gephardt 7, Kerry 7, Lieberman 6, Sharpton 6, Braun 1, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (ZI)
10/29-11/03: Lieberman 17 (+4), Dean 15 (-2), Clark 12 (-6), Kerry 11 (-1), Sharpton 11 (+5), Gephardt 9 (+4) (QU)
OH: 12/31-01/09: Dean 29 (+20), Clark 17 (+11), Gephardt 16 (+2), Kucinich 11 (-1), Lieberman 11 (-7), Kerry 7 (-2), Edwards 5 (+4), Sharpton 0 (-6), Braun 0 (-4) (0) (OHP)
RI: 09/13-09/15: Dean 17, Kerry 17, Lieberman 17, Gephardt 7, Braun 3, Sharpton 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 1 (BU)
VT: 10/28-10/30: Dean 47, Kerry 18, Clark 8, Lieberman 6, Edwards 5, Gephardt 4, Kucinich 3, Sharpton 1, Braun 0 (R2K)
March 9
FL: 01/24-01/26: Kerry 38, Dean 16, Edwards 14, Clark 10, Lieberman 8, Sharpton 6 (SUSA)
12/01-12/03: Dean 16, Clark 15, Lieberman 15, Gephardt 8.5, Kerry 6, Edwards 3, Sharpton 3, Braun 2, Kucinich 0.5 (SA)
11/17-11/21: Lieberman 21, Dean 17, Clark 14, Gephardt 11, Kerry 6, Sharpton 4, Edwards 3, Braun 1, Kucinich 1 (MD)
LA:
MS:
TX: 11/14-12/06: Dean 16, Clark 14, Lieberman 14 (SH)
March 13
KS:
March 16
IL: 01/12-01/14: Dean 29 (+18), Gephardt 16 (0), Braun 14 (-8), Clark 13, Kerry 7 (-1), Edwards 6 (+2), Lieberman 5 (-10), Sharpton 4 (+1), Kucinich 1 (SUSA)
01/06-01/11: Dean 24 (+14), Gephardt 12 (-1), Clark 10 (-1), Braun 9 (0), Kerry 5 (-3), Lieberman 5 (-3), Edwards 2 (+1), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (-1) (CT)
March 20
AK:
WY:
April 13
CO:
April 27
PA: 12/11-12/14: Dean 28 (+23), Lieberman 17 (+2), Gephardt 10 (0), Clark 9 (-8), Kerry 7 (-11), Edwards 4 (-3), Braun 3 (0), Sharpton 3 (-1), Kucinich 1 (-1) (QU)
11/23-12/08: Dean 19, Lieberman 12, Clark 10, Kerry 10, Gephardt 6, Braun 3, Sharpton 3, Kucinich 2, Edwards 0 (MC)
10/27-11/16: Lieberman 12, Dean 11, Sharpton 10, Gephardt 7, Clark 6, Kerry 6, Braun 2, Edwards 1, Kucinich 0 (KP)
May 4
IN:
NC: 01/05-01/08: Edwards 40 (-3), Dean 26 (+1), Clark 7 (+1), Kerry 6 (-3), Gephardt 5 (-2), Lieberman 3 (-2), Kucinich 1 (0), Sharpton 1 (0), Braun 0 (0) (R2K)
May 11
NE:
WV:
May 18
AR:
KY:
OR:
June 1
AL: 11/17-12/09: Dean 11, Lieberman 11, Clark 9, Gephardt 9, Sharpton 9, Braun 7, Kerry 4, Edwards 3 (unknown)
09/29-10/02: Clark 13, Gephardt 11, Lieberman 9, Sharpton 9, Dean 5, Edwards 4 (MR)
SD:
June 8
MT:
NJ: 11/16-11/19: Dean 19, Lieberman 15, Kerry 14, Clark 13, Gephardt 8, Sharpton 7, Braun 6, Edwards 3, Kucinich 1 (R2K)
11/06-11/10: Dean 16 (+4), Lieberman 16 (-1), Kerry 15 (+1), Clark 11 (-5), Gephardt 9 (-4), Braun 6 (+4), Sharpton 5 (-4), Edwards 2 (-2), Kucinich 0 (0) (QU)
Pollsters:
AJ = Albuquerque Journal
AJC = Atlanta Journal-Constitution
AR = Arizona Republic
ARG = American Research Group
BG = Boston Globe
BH = Boston Herald
BRC = Behavior Research Group
BU = Brown University
CI = Critical Insights
CM = Concord Monitor
DC = Democracy Corps
DMR = Des Moines Register
E/M = EPIC / MRA
EP = Elway Poll
FG = Feldman Group (D)
FN = Fox News
FP = Field Poll
FPC = Franklin Pierce College
GA = Gonzales / Arscott Research
GSG = Global Stragegy Group (Edwards)
IP = Iowa Poll
KCS = Kansas City Star
LAT = Los Angeles Times
MC = Muhlenberg College
MD = Mason-Dixon
MG = Mellman Group (Kerry)
MI - Marist Institute
MR = Mobile Register
MTSU = Middle Tennessee State University
NAU = Northern Arizona University
OHP = Ohio Poll
OKP = Oklahoma Poll
PPI = Public Policy Institute
PR = Pew Research
PSR = Potomac Survey Research
QU = Quinnipiac University
R2K = Research 2000
RR = Rasmussen Reports
SA = Schroth & Associates
SH = Scripps-Howard
SNC = Saint Norbert College
SRG = Shapiro Research Group (D)
SU = Suffolk University
SUSA = Survey USA
TFW = The Forum and WDAY
TW = Tulsa World
U/C/G = USA Today / CNN / Gallup
UConn = University of Connecticut
WP = WisPolitics.com
ZI = Zogby International