It seems increasingly obvious that Iraqi re-construction, under the guidance and occupation of America, is destined for failure. We are now relegated to empty phrases such as "stay the course" and "finish what we started". The harsh reality is the present situation is a clear no-win proposition, whether the measure is short or long term. The negative ramifications for the United States, in terms of lives, cost and perception clearly outweigh any practical progress as we move forward. The arguments for staying, some of which appear superfically noble, will never achieve the desired result. What is the point then?
The threat of civil war and instability
Everyone knew full well, before this exercise, that Iraq was a country in name only, held together through repression and fear. It seems dangerously arrogant to assume the United States has the ability to unite these ethnic divisions in any substantive way. There is little trust between Kurd, Sunni and Shia and putting our faith in scumbags like Chalabi will hardly foster unity. Sure we can keep Iraq together, but we will mirror Saddam, in using force as the primary tool. The current framework laid out is destined to fail. How long will the Shi'ites accept a lesser role than their population dictates? Does anyone believe the Kurds will not align with their Turkish brethren and move towards a Kurdish state? Are the Sunni's prepared to accept minority status and marginal influence? The fact that Iran has already involved itself with the Sadr fiasco is an excellent indicator of how Iraq's future may look.
Not only should we cut and run with regard to the occupation, so too should we cut and run on the idea of a united Iraq. Realistically, and probably least bloody, would be an Iraq divided into three distinct and autonomous parts, loosely affiliated with things such as a common currency, migration and trade, etc. We will not keep Iraq together unless force and puppet governments are used, hardly a workable template.
We must show the world we are commited
Sounds great, but the reality is all we are showing the world is how refined we are at the art of killing. This war has only furthered Arab perception that America is anti-Islam and further occupation only perpetuates the idea of America as an oil hungry colonialist. The idea that liberating and re-constructing Iraq will be seen positively in the Arab world is increasingly laughable, the reality is perception of America has never been so negative. Given that future violence is assured, ebbing and re-emerging, how can America win the battle of perception with Al Jazeera constantly documentating the blood and aggression, justified or not. Staying in Iraq has no chance of changing the perception of America, certainly it will only continue to fuel old hatreds and act as fodder for extremists.
The soldiers will have died in vain
Tough pill to swallow, but continued occupation can't be predicated on maintaining a brave face that Iraq was a noble cause. Vietnam was a misadventure, that doesn't detract from viewing the veterans as anything less than patriotic. History will rip this war, and its reasoning, to shreds, that remains clear. If leaving minimizes the death toll, on both sides, then maybe nobility finds a footing. Saving face should not be a consideration if we are truly interested in the best outcome. No disgrace in tipping your king, faced with the inevitable outcome.
I remember, months ago, listening to Kucinich advocate the "cut and run" stand. I shook my head, adopting the, "see it through", version because it seemed right under the circumstances. However, it now seems clear that we have passed the tipping point and no good will come out of continued American occupation. The best we can hope for is too keep a temporary lid on an inevitable reality, while casualities mount on both sides. Continuing the occupation will only help extremists, hurt American prestige in the world community and only delay the forces of self-destiny. Enough is enough, no good will come of this continued mis-adventure.
