Like most of you, I just watched the first 2008 Democratic Candidates' debate on MSNBC from South Carlina. One candidate missing from the debate was Al Gore - who may yet join this list of candidates in coming months.
Even as an unannounced candidate, Al Gore is showing remarkable political strength. According to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today, Al Gore does the best against the Republican candidates in the key swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania
[F]ormer Vice President, Al Gore, runs better against Republican challengers in most swing state matchups than Sen. Clinton or Illinois Senator Barack Obama.
"Mayor Rudolph Giuliani remains the front-runner, but he and the entire Democratic Field should wonder if Al Gore will become an inconvenient truth in the 2008 presidential race and go for the biggest Oscar of them all," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
While Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic pack in all three states, surprisingly it is Gore who fares best against the Republicans, says Brown.
"Voters can either love Sen. Clinton or leave her. Her support is very deep, but narrow. Democrats view her favorably 8 - 1, but she turns off independents. So she leads the Democratic primary field, but struggles against Republicans.
"Sen. Obama may have matched Sen. Clinton in fundraising, but he hasn't been able to close the gap among primary voters, where she leads by more than 2 - 1 in all three states. He is still an unknown to more than a third of voters - which gives him an opportunity to move up."
"Perhaps absence does make the heart grow fonder. Vice President Gore generally runs best against any of the Republican candidates. Whatever the reason, should Gore get in, he could reshape the race for the Democratic presidential nomination."
Methodology - From April 17 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
- 987 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 388 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent, and 371 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent;
- 1,083 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, including 350 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent, and 409 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent;
- 988 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent, including 425 Republicans and 425 Democrats, each with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.
Here are the matchups polled in each of the three states
* Ohio
- McCain beats Gore 46 - 39 percent;
- Gore beats Thompson 44 - 35 percent;
- McCain edges Clinton 44 - 42 percent;
- Clinton tops Thompson 45 - 35 percent;
- Giuliani bests Obama 45 - 37 percent;
- McCain tops Obama 42 - 36 percent;
- Obama beats Thompson 44 - 31 percent.
The fav/unfav ratings in Ohio are
- 47 - 43 percent for Clinton;
- 44 - 41 percent for Gore;
- 41 - 21 percent for Obama;
- 47 - 24 percent for Edwards.
* Florida
- Gore tops Arizona Sen. John McCain 46 - 43 percent;
- Gore beats Thompson 48 - 36 percent;
- Clinton and McCain are tied at 45 - 45 percent;
- Clinton bests Thompson 48 - 38 percent;
- Giuliani beats Obama 49 - 38 percent;
- Obama and McCain are tied at 41 - 41 percent;
- Obama tops Thompson 42 - 35 percent.
The fav/unfav ratings in Florida are
- 47 - 44 percent for Clinton;
- 42 - 17 percent for Obama;
- 50 - 38 percent for Gore;
- 44 - 24 percent for Edwards.
* Pennsylvania
- Gore tops McCain 45 - 42 percent;
- Gore leads Thompson 48 - 34 percent;
- McCain edges Clinton 45 - 43 percent;
- Clinton tops Thompson 47 - 36 percent;
- Giuliani beats Obama 45 - 41 percent;
- Obama edges McCain 43 - 41 percent;
- Obama beats Thompson 45 - 33 percent.
The fav/unfav ratings in Pennsylvania are
- 48 - 42 percent for Clinton;
- 51 - 38 percent for Gore;
- 46 - 17 percent for Obama;
- 49 - 22 percent for Edwards.
* Summary
In summary, the poll matched three Democratic candidates (Clinton, Gore, and Obama) against the three Republican candidates (Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson) in OH/FL/PA. (Update - The reason they selected these three (excluding Edwards and Romney) was that each of the three were the top candidates amongst the Democratic and Republican respondents). The results showed the following:
- Clinton - loses to Giuliani in all three states; ties McCain in FL but loses to him in OH and PA; and defeats Thompson in all three states.
- Gore - ties Giuliani in PA and loses to him in OH and FL; defeats McCain in FL and PA but loses to him in OH; defeats Thompson in all three states.
- Obama - loses to Giuliani in all three states; ties McCain in FL but loses to him in OH and PA; and defeats Thompson in all three states.
I have been writing diaries for several months now about Al Gore possibly entering this race later on this year. Yesterday, he set a deadline of sorts for the other Democratic candidates.
Given widespread dissatisfaction amongst Republicans and with fears of a meltdown in 2008, if I were Al Gore looking at this poll, I'd be very encouraged.