According to
Nola.com there are expected to be in excess of 373,000 evacuees from New Orleans to Texas in the wake of Katrina. As we know, New Orleans was pretty much the only Blue part of Louisiana, and it was so populus and so blue, that it was primarily responsible for an otherwise red state having a Democrat governor.
With New Orleans evacuated, most of the evacuees finding shelter in Texas, and most of them being too poor to move back to New Orleans, this could result in a major electoral shift in Texas.
More after the flip
According to
Wikkipedia's 2004 election, Bush won Texas with more than 1.5 million votes. A little more than a third of a million new democratic voters won't change Texas all at once. But with the results of Hurricane Katrina being felt very close to home by the citizens of Texas, and the impact of Rita looming as we speak, this could be the best opportunity we may see to shift Texas to the Democrat column.
I would be ironic if the Republican leadership, through punishing a Southern Democratic stronghold with willful neglect and smearing a Democrat Governor turning Louisiana completely red, managed to shoot themselves in the foot and loose the most populus red state in the country. It would serve them right, too.
I'm interested in what Texas Kossaks think about this. It seems to be a given that most of these evacuees will settle down in Texas. Realistically, do you think this will have a big enough impact on local Texas politics to forcast a general Texas turn?
P.S. I'm having a really hard time remembering to call these folks evacuees and not refugees. Every time I start typing, "refu" and then catch myself saying "no they're not refugees, they're evacuees".
P.P.S. I know this topic might seem ghoulish, but it would be naiive to ignore the fact that a large influx of Democratically voting evacuees has the potential to change electoral politics. Even if it doesn't complete change Texas blue, it might make it a swing state. You can be that Karl is wondering about this question right now.