This is a short diary to emphasize a point I hope gets made by Chuck Todd and by Obama surrogates on the night of May 6 about pledged delegates.
Though Barack Obama will not be at 1627 to get the majority of pledged delegates and thereby kick in the Pelosi Club (including Sen. Maria Cantwell's flip from Clinton to Obama), he will have clinched it anyway.
Why?
Viability.
Consider: the only contest in which one candidate was not viable in a two-way race was the Virgin Islands, where Obama won 3-0 in the delegate count. (Pointed out by NMLib and IHateBush in comments, Clinton failed viability in Illinois CDs 1 and 2). Obama has been viable in every CD and every state and every contest in this entire nomination.
Remember, viability is 15%. Get 15% and you automatically get are eligible for 1 delegate in every contest. [Although, Obama would need 25% statewide in South Dakota and Montana to get his 1 PLEO (there are 2 to split). Would need 16.7% in West Virginia statewide to get 1 of the 3 PLEOs.]
After May 6, there are essentially 37 races left in the 6 contests. There are two contests each statewide (one for at-large delegates and one for PLEO delegates), and of course there are the individual CDs or districts (in Puerto Rico's case).
West Virginia - 3 CDs, 5 races
Kentucky - 6 CDs, 8 races
Oregon - 5 CDs, 7 races
Puerto Rico - 8 districts, 10 races
South Dakota - 1 CD, 3 races
Montana - 1 CD that is split into eastern and western blocs of 5 dels, 4 races
That is a minimum of Obama 37, Clinton 37 in pledged delegates. I want to see this specific point made on Tuesday night, above and beyond the "Clinton would need 80% of pledged delegates" or whatever we usually hear.
If you use the lowest number everyone is using for Obama's current pledged delegate total, 1490, he needs 137 to clinch the pledged delegate count and trigger the Pelosi Club.
So, in a sense he needs 100 out of Guam, Indiana and North Carolina, because, again, he has been viable in every single district in every single contest in the continental US and around the world.
2 out of Guam, 36 out of Indiana and 62 out of North Carolina would do the trick. Or other combos. It might not quite happen. But I want to see some people making the point that he needs the minimum threshold in every remaining district plus 1 or 2 pledged or whatever it is.
Fair enough?
Updated - dumb omission - Montana splits its 10 into two blocs of 5 (east and west).
PS - After June 3, someone is endorsing. I will neither confirm nor deny. How the hell did these pictures get in here?