Yesterday, I posted a diary saying that things look "bleak" for us in the Senate. I didn't mean that we were going to lose 10 seats, I meant that the prospects of taking the Senate back had dimmed considerably.
I am trying to look at these races as objectively as possible. A lot of people on this site tend to look at ever race with extreme rose colored glasses.
Well, unsurprisingly, I was pounced upon by several people who claimed I didn't have a clue...
Today's Hotline Senate Rankings seem to show that I did...
"Last week, we indicated that Senate Democrats had the momentum. This week, the exact opposite is true. Republicans have the drive in a majority of the nine most competitive races, even ones they still may lose (like Alaska). Instinct suggests the party will net a seat and possibly two even if Kerry wins the White House. Bush's standing in states with Senate races is holding up very well and Democrats needed a bit of depression among the Bush base, particularly in these states, to pull this off. Bush's numbers just aren't falling into place in states like Oklahoma, South Carolina and even Kentucky to assist the Democratic Senate candidates. And while the political breezes could blow in the opposite direction, we feel better about Senate Republicans than about the president."
PS - for the Chris John fanatic who knows ohhh so much about LA politics, here is what they say about the LA race:
"Vitter seems to have a legitimate shot at pulling this off without the runoff. He has to win it now because it will be that much more difficult to do so in December. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Democrat Chris John's campaign are now 100 percent focused on keeping Vitter under 50 percent. There's a 50-50 proposition that Vitter is kept under 50."
PS 2 - And for everyone who told me I was nuts to suggest Carson is losing, they now rank KY and a more likely pickup than OK. Her is what they say about OK:
"Republican Tom Coburn feels he's on his way to victory as Democrat Brad Carson has stalled. It could be that Oklahoma is just too Republican"