As some of you may have noticed, this past week House Speaker In Waiting John Boehner gave a "major economic address", claiming that President Obama is "doing everything possible to prevent jobs from being created" while refusing to do anything at all "about bringing down the deficits that threaten our economy." "Elect Republicans in November", Boehner assured the audience, "and we will put an end to this insanity".
There's just one problem with Boehner's claim - the facts. The things that Republicans have said they want to do won't actually boost employment or reduce deficits. In fact, they would actually increase the deficit and add to the numbers of the unemployed.
Those known Communist sympathizers over at Newsweekhave put together some pretty interesting research. They came to the conclusion that if Republicans win control of Congress in November and enact every last on of the proposals they want, the projected 2010–2020 deficits would be larger than they are under Obama, and fewer people would be employed.
They start with the deficit. According to the Congressional Budget Office, Obama's stimulus plan is projected to increase budget deficits over the next decade by $814 billion. Republicans opposed the legislation refused to provide an alternative, and now insist that it's been a total failure. So we'll be generous and and start with Obama having a deficit $814 billion, and the GOP with $0 deficit.
Next, the consider the President's Big Fucking Deal, aka Health Care Reform. The Republicans have made a big fucking deal out of wanting to repeal it. This Tuesday the bi-partisan CBO released a letter saying the health-care-reform legislation would "<st>reduce the projected budget deficit by $30 billion over the next 10 years</st>," while repealing the law would generate "an increase in deficits ... of $455 billion ... over that [same] period."
EDIT: I was following the Newsweek article for the HCR estimates. They're wrong. Thanks to a comment & link posted by billybush, the CBO letter actually says "the two laws’ health care and revenue provisions are estimated to reduce the projected deficit in 2020 by $28 billion, and the education provisions of the Reconciliation Act are estimated to reduce the projected deficit in 2020 by $2 billion. That's 30 billion in deficit reduction in the year 2020 alone. They actually estimate the HCR will produce "$143 billion in net budgetary savings over the 2010-2019 period
So now we subtract the $173 billion HCR reduces the deficit and add in the $455 billion repealing it would add to the deficit, and the new score is:
Obama deficit: $641 billion
GOP deficit: $455 billion.
Next up: The Bush tax cuts. Obama wants to extend them for the 95 percent of taxpayers making less than $250,000 a year; Republicans want to extend them for everybody. According to The Washington Post, "the Democratic proposal would add about $3 trillion to the deficit during the next decade, while the GOP plan would cost $3.7 trillion."
The new score is:
Obama deficit: $3.641 trillion
GOP deficit: $4.155 trillion.
One last piece of the puzzle: Boehner, in his bold "major economic address", also said if they get put in charge, the Republican controlled Congress would freeze non-defense discretionary spending at 2008 levels, which would save a grand total of $36 billion over 10 years. Although it's highly unlikely the could/would do this, since the last time they controlled Congress, 2002-2006, they never froze any spending, actually increased it quite a bit. But, let's be really, really generous and give it to them.
Final score:
Obama deficit: $3.641 trillion
GOP deficit: $4.119 trillion.
Yes, if the Republicans ram through every single one of their proposals, they will increase the federal deficit $478 billion more than Obama over the next 10 years. Insanity indeed.
But, let's take a look at unemployment. The CBO estimates that between 1.4 million and 3.3 million jobs were saved or created by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, aka "Stimulus Bill". Take the middle of their estimate, and the pro-stimulus Obama has 2.35 million more people employed that the anti-stimulus GOP.
The effect of extending the Bush tax cuts on job creation is harder to calculate. The CBO estimates that extending all of the Bush tax cuts would lower unemployment by 0.3 to 0.8 percent over the next year or so. It estimates that extending them only for people making less than $250,000 would produce a somewhat smaller effect. But, again, let's be really, really generous and say that somehow not extending the 3% tax cut for the wealthiest 5% of taxpayers adds 350,000 to unemployment. President Obama still has 2 million more people employed than the anti-stimulus Republicans, who said they would have done nothing.
Summary: If we allow the Democrats to retain control of Congress and empower President Obama to continue his "job killing, out of control spending", 2 million more people will be employed and the deficit will be $478 billion dollars less than under the Republicans.
Elect Republicans in November, and put an end to this insanity! We need bigger deficits and more people unemployed!