This shouldn't happen. Former Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber should be running away with this race against not-even-very-good former NBA player Chris Dudley. No way should this one be a "tossup."
Carla Axtman at BlueOregon reacts.
I bumped into DavidNYC, JamesL and Crisitunity during last week's Netroots Nation convention in Las Vegas. Crisitunity is the blogger who generally covers the Pacific Northwest. He talked with me about the team's decision to bump the race over.
"Swing State Project moved OR-Gov to Tossup largely on the basis of polling showing, almost without exception, a race within a point or two either direction," said Crisitunity. "That's primarily the prolific Rasmussen (whose reputation precedes them), and a few other pollsters we're leery of (openly Republican pollster Magellan, and SurveyUSA), but also Tim Hibbitts, who has a sterling reputation in Oregon. Even if the intangibles seem to support a Kitzhaber victory -- Oregon's Democratic lean, its long track record of electing Democratic governors, and the difference in candidate quality and gravitas -- the difficult nature of the year and the potential for Dudley to outspend Kitzhaber mean it can't be taken for granted and Kitzhaber could just as easily lose as win."
Crisitunity went on to say that they're "alarmed" by chatter they're hearing that Kitzhaber seems to be coasting on his well-earned reputation. They believe Kitz may also be viewing the race through an "outdated prism of bipartisanship and amicable problem-solving". Swing State is concerned that the former Governor is waiting for the inevitable need to throw some punches and define Dudley instead of trying to somehow "transcend politicking as usual."
Of primary concern for a lot of Oregon Dems is Dudley's fundraising lead.
Since the May 18 primary, Dudley has raised nearly $850,000 -- more than three times the $269,000 raised by Kitzhaber. Overall, Dudley has raised $2.6 million, nearly 50 percent more than the $1.76 million raised by his Democratic rival.
Veteran political reporter Jeff Mapes digs deeper into that fundraising. Dudley, since retiring from the NBA, has worked as an "investment manager," giving him plenty of access to very wealthy people, like his fellow NBA pros. But he's raising a ton, "45 percent of his money, about $744,000" in very blue Portland and that's a problem.
Labor endorsements, and the money that comes with them, are going to start coming in and Kitzhaber will certainly get those. But he's certainly going to have to do more than rely on that to catch up with Dudley in fundraising, and to remind Oregonians that he's the one that's got the experience to lead the state and that his opponent is just another Republican looking out for his rich buddies.
