In our national poll last week, we asked respondents to name their top issue, from a list of nine. We had to pre-select which issues would appear on the list, but we also left open a tenth possibility: "something else." This is how voters answered:
Q: I’m going to name nine issues. Which of these is most important to you right now: education, Social Security, Medicare, jobs, national security, gas prices, taxes, immigration, or the federal budget deficit?
Jobs: 26
Federal budget deficit: 18
Education: 15
Social Security: 13
Gas prices: 10
Medicare: 5
National security: 5
Immigration: 3
Taxes: 3
Something else: 2
Jobs is the clear winner - and interestingly, one which Democrats (31%) cited much more frequently than Republicans (21%). The situation was even starker on deficit, which was the top issue for Republicans at 29%. (Just 8% of Democrats agreed.) Education also saw a big split, at 22-7 for the Dems. The least partisan issue seems to be gas prices, with essentially equal numbers of Democrats, Republicans an independents calling it their biggest concern.
Given how hot Medicare is these days, it might seem surprising to see the issue so low on the list. But this just shows how much actual campaigns matter. In Siena College's recent poll (PDF) of the special election in western New York, they asked a similar question, and the results are instructive:
Q: What was the single most important issue for you in deciding which candidate to support?
Medicare: 21
Jobs: 20
The federal budget deficit: 19
Taxes: 12
Health care: 12
The candidate's political party: 1
Other: 7
Don't know/No opinion: 7
Medicare has been front-and-center in this race for weeks, and Democrat Kathy Hochul has been hitting the issue relentlessly — forcing Republican Jane Corwin into an unsightly flip-flop. Thanks to those efforts (especially TV ads), Medicare has soared to the top of the issue list. Jobs still remains a poweful issue, and Democrats need to heed that as well. But as long as we make it important, Medicare will be important — as well it should be, because Medicare is important.
