There have been numerous attempts to draw a Hispanic opportunity congressional district in Dallas-Fort Worth. Unfortunately, Republicans have rebuffed these attempts with the argument that the Hispanic population is too diffuse within DFW. Any attempt to draw such a district would either include a citizen voting age population (CVAP) of under 50%, which may violate Lulac v. Perry, or be racial gerrymander, which violates Shaw v. Reno. While I wish there were no merit to these claims, they should certainly be considered in developing a legal argument against the current congressional map drawn by Seliger and supported by the State Senate Redistricting Committee (map, stats).
For example, District 34 drawn by State Rep. Marc Veasey and shown below is an example one that may violate Shaw v. Reno because it is not particularly compact.
Furthermore, according to Greg Wythe, the Hispanic CVAP rate in Dallas is a lowly 41%. Previously, I had drawn the following green compact district that is 64% Hispanic.
Unfortunately, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the Hispanic CVAP percentage is in the mid-low 40s, which is lower than the 46% that SCOTUS ruled out in a replacement district in Lulac v. Perry. Consequently, the GOP has at least an argument against creating a Hispanic DFW seat.
Fortunately, I think there is a good back up Gingles argument to throw out the Seliger map. Simply put, it is possible to draw two compact African American districts in DFW.
I arrived upon this idea by observing Veasey’s District 35 and realizing that one could increase the African American CVAP using Dallas Hispanic precincts.
District 1 (Blue)
Pop/Wh/Bl/Hisp/Asn/Nat/Oth
All/24.0/40.6/28.4/4.9/0.3/1.8
18+/28.2/40.4/24.7/5.2/0.3/1.3
Obama 70.8/McCain 29.2
Dem 64.7/Rep 35.3
District 2 (Green)
Pop/Wh/Bl/Hisp/Asn/Nat/Oth
All/15.3/36.4/44.9/2.1/0.3/1.1
18+/19.0/37.6/39.8/2.3/0.3/0.9
Obama 78.3/McCain 21.7
Dem 74.3/Rep 25.7
Texas has commonly used 40% Black VAP for African American Districts, and actually going under 40% is not uncommon. For example, Houston Districts 9 and 18 in the Seliger map have Black VAP at 37.6% and 39.5%, respectively. In fact by the numbers, Seliger’s District 18 (VAP: 22.1% Wh/39.5% Bl/33.0% Hisp/6.1% Asn+Nat+Oth) represented by Sheila Jackson Lee looks very similar to District 1 and is more crazy and gerrymandered. Furthermore, African American State Sen. Royce West has represented both the Dallas and Fort Worth precincts in District 1, and the Arlington precincts are near UT-Arlington where he went to college. He would be a huge favorite to win this district, and the next two most likely candidates are State Rep. Marc Veasey or State Rep. Helen Giddings, both of whom are African Americans. There should be no doubt that District 1 is an African American opportunity district.
District 2 by contrast is more like Seliger’s District 9 (VAP: 13.2% Wh/37.6% Bl/35.8% Hisp/14.5% Asn+Nat+Oth) represented by Al Green. The big difference is that Seliger’s District 9 has many more Asians, while District 2 has more Hispanics. However, with the CVAP rate of Hisapnics being 47% in Houston, which is substantially higher than the 41% in Dallas, it’s likely that the Black CVAP of District 2 is actually a bit higher in than that of Seliger’s District 9. In fact, assuming a Hisapnic CVAP rate of 41% and a non-Hispanic CVAP of 100%, District 2 has a Black CVAP of 49%. Using a CVAP rate of 41% for Asians and Others as well, the Black CVAP increases to 50%. (Making the same assumptions about District 1 puts its Black CVAP at 49%.) Furthermore, African American Congresswoman Eddie Bernice Johnson represents nearly all of the precincts in District 2, and she would win this district as well. Although I am not quite sure whether she lives in District 2, Texas does not actually require congressional representatives to live in their district. Like District 1, there should be no doubt that District 2 is an African American opportunity district.
To repeat, most arguments against the Seliger map have focused on drawing a Hispanic DFW district. While I do think there should be Hispanic DFW district (preferably one that includes both my house and State Rep. Rafael Anchia’s house), drawing two compact African American DFW districts may be a stronger legal argument.
UPDATE I: I slightly changed the language concerning Lulac v Perry to reflect that the 46% Hispanic CVAP was for a replacement district. Thanks for the reminder roguemapper.
UPDATE II: Thanks for the link Greg!