We wanted to see if Newt Gingrich's skyrocketing fortunes in the Republican primary were translating into greater success against Barack Obama in the general election, so we asked PPP to include the question below on our weekly national poll.
Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU. 12/1-4. Registered voters. MoE ±3.1% (11/10-13 results):
Q: If the candidates for President next year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama: 50 (49)
Newt Gingrich: 42 (43)
Undecided: 8 (8)
The answer is about as simple as it gets: no. In fact, as you can see, not only has Newt's greater prominence failed to get him anywhere against the president, he's even shed a couple of points. Oddly, compared to the last time PPP ask about Gingrich's favorables, more people are moving into the "not sure" category—and they're all people who used to view him positively. Newt gets a 31-50 favorability rating in this poll, with 19 percent undecided. Last month, it was 39-50. That's some rough business when becoming better known causes people to become even more uncertain about you, but somehow that seems fitting with Newt.
His supporters seem quite undeterred, though. In fact, according to PPP's new Iowa caucus poll, the only group of Republicans who prize electability over ideology are those who say they plan to vote for Gingrich. And a majority of respondents overall think Gingrich "has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama." Of course, that's belied by a year's worth of polls, including this one—but don't tell them that!
Meanwhile, in our weekly approval numbers (minus a week off for Thanksgiving), Obama's numbers took a hearty jump upwards:
Full crosstabs, as always,
are at the link.