(Economic Policy Institute)
The number of available job openings decreased slightly in November, according to statistics
released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in its monthly JOLTS survey. The number fell by 63,000, from 3.224 million to 3.161 million, about 2 percent. This time a year ago, the survey found 2.966 million openings.
The bottom line? For the 152 weeks ending in November, the ratio of officially out-of-work Americans to the number of job openings has been above 4-to-1. The official jobless count falls short of the actual total, although by how much is strongly debated. So that 4-to-1 figure—4.2-to-1 in November to be exact—is better than the actual situation.
The November ratio improved over October's 4.3-to-1 number, however, because the unemployment rate fell from 8.9 percent to 8.7 percent that month. But at least half the improvement was due to a large decrease in the labor force as counted by the BLS.
JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary. It measures exactly what the name says, job openings and the number of hires and separations. The latter includes layoffs, firings and quits. The survey has only been in effect since December 2000, so it has limited utility for comparisons, and it is always a month behind the monthly BLS jobs report.
At the Economic Policy Institute, Heidi Shierholz writes:
To put this figure in context, the highest this ratio ever got in the early 2000s downturn was 2.8-to-1, and in December 2000, the month the JOLTS survey began, the ratio was 1.1-to-1. While the job-seekers ratio has slowly been improving since it peaked at 6.9-to-1 in the summer of 2009, today’s data release marks two years and 11 months—152 weeks—that the ratio has been above 4-to-1. A job-seekers ratio of more than 4-to-1 means that there are no jobs for more than three out of four unemployed workers, no matter what job seekers do. Furthermore, the lack of job openings relative to unemployed workers is in no way limited to particular industries such as construction—unemployed workers dramatically outnumber job openings across the board, in every major industry.
And yet, despite this ratio, elected Republicans at both the state and federal levels are eager to reduce the time period for which out-of-work Americans can receive unemployment benefits and the amount they get in each check. Several states have already passed laws to cut both. House Republicans want to ax the current level of 99 weeks of extended unemployment benefits available in a few high-unemployment states to, at most, 59 weeks, with further whacks to follow.
The economy only added an average of 137,000 jobs each month of 2011, spiking once to 235,000. While much improved over 2010, and, of course early 2009, when hundreds of thousands of jobs were being lost each month, the economy is still undergoing stunted growth compared with previous recoveries from recession. While we're hearing from many experts that the economy will be better in 2012, we heard the same last year at this time for prospects in 2011. Better if Europe doesn't implode. Better if Chinese growth doesn't slip too far. Better if people who are spending more start spending it out of their earnings instead of their savings.
A lot of ifs for an economy with, at best, one job for every four job-seekers.