The Department of Labor is reporting that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 380,000 last week, an increase of 13,000 over the previous week's revised figure. The four-week moving average, a measure preferred by many analysts because it smooths out volatility, was 368,500, an increase of 4,250 from the previous week's revised average of 364,250.
The general rule is that a level of unemployment claims below 375,000 is associated with dropping unemployment levels; that being the case, last week's figure of 380,000 is not good news, especially coming on the heels of last week's weak jobs report. However, there's a reason we look at the four-week moving average—weekly numbers do have a lot of volatility, so the question is whether this week's number signals the beginning of a trend. Though this is the highest level of unemployment claims we've seen since January, not all that many months ago it would have looked like good news.