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Leading Off:

FL-26: The Miami Herald reports that both the FBI and the Miami-Dade police are now investigating the campaign of "Democrat" Justin Lamar Sternad, whose fake candidacy—unsuccessfully aimed at hurting real Democrat Joe Garcia—was almost certainly propped up by corrupt GOP freshman David Rivera. Rivera of course denies everything and alleges a massive conspiracy between the vendors who did work for the penniless Sternad, the Herald, and Garcia. Most mind-blowing is this:

Rivera—who denies ever knowing Sternad—also produced a copy of a new campaign report for Sternad that purported to show, for the first time, that the Democrat's campaign had paid Rapid Mail. Earlier in the day, a reporter for América Tevé said the congressman called her and told her to go to see Sternad's lawyer, where she would get a scoop on the new campaign report. The lawyer never gave it to her.

Rivera didn't explain how he got the report and Federal Elections Commission officials told The Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald on Wednesday that the document had not been received yet by the FEC.

I'm not even sure Encyclopedia Brown ever busted Bugs Meany for being this stupid.

P.S. If Rivera winds up getting nailed and the GOP wanted to replace him... well, it looks like they can't. As it so happens, Florida's elections board just certified the results of last week's primary on Thursday morning, and if you remember the Mark Foley race from 2006, you may recall that his name had to stay on the ballot because the whole congressional page scandal only came to light after Foley's own primary results were rendered official. So Republicans may well be stuck with Rivera.

Senate:

FL-, OH-, WI-Sen: Quinnipiac's out with another troika of swing state polls, and all three states also have Senate races. Here's what we've got, with trendlines in parens and Democrats listed first in all cases:

FL: Nelson 50, Mack 41 (47-40); Obama +3 (+6)

OH: Brown 48, Mandel 41 (51-39); Obama +6 (+6)

WI: Baldwin 44, Thompson 50 (47-47); Obama +2 (+6)

Meanwhile, the University of Cincinnati is also out with their first poll (PDF) of the Ohio Senate contest, and they find a much tighter race, with Brown up just 48-47 over Mandel, while Obama leads Romney 49-46. And a firm called Gravis Marketing has another Florida survey, too, with Nelson on top 46-39 and Romney +3 over the president. (Note that this poll was in the field for just one day, and oddly, Gravis's memo says it was conducted on a Monday afternoon. That's an awfully weird time to field a poll, given that most people aren't home then.)

MA-Sen: Seriously?

"Gail and I were laying in bed last night and talking a little bit, as we do every night," he said, "and I said: 'Honey, can you imagine? Here I am, Scott Brown from Wrentham, and I've got a truck that's got 238,000 miles on it and, you know, something like this comes up and I'm the first guy in the country to even bring it up and tell the guy to step down,' " Mr. Brown said.

He said his denunciation of Mr. Akin's comments was "really kind of amazing, kind of eye-opening" and "led to other senators and other people and other groups to say, you know what, that conversation has no place in the public discourse."

Well, this is the guy who's conducted secret meetings with kings and queens, after all. Love how he managed to work in his truck, too.

MI-Sen: On behalf of a trio of Detroit-area media outfits, the Glengariff Group recently conducted a poll of Michigan. They find Dem Sen. Debbie Stabenow beating ex-Rep. Pete Hoesktra 48-40, while Obama tops Romney 48-42. (By the way, am I the only one who thinks of the seminal David Mamet play whenever these guys have a new survey out? "Polling is for closers!")

MO-Sen: Rasmussen: Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 48 (44), Todd Akin (R): 38 (47).

MT-Sen: GOP Rep. Denny Rehberg has a new ad attacking Dem Sen. Jon Tester, trying to tie him to Obama by repeatedly featuring a quote of Tester saying "Barack brings the kind of vision for this country that we need." I'll just point out that, for no particular reason, the ad mimics a computer desktop—a crappy Windows desktop, complete with a window featuring a word processor that looks like it's straight out of 1995. I guess that's Microsoft—and the Republicans—for you: always living in the past.

NM-Sen: Another positive spot from Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich, mostly on generic stuff (cut taxes for middle class, make millionaires pay their fair share, etc.). It feels to me, judging by the advertising, that Heinrich's run a much more positive campaign than that of his opponent, GOP ex-Rep. Heather Wilson. That, combined with his small-to-medium lead in the polls, seems to reinforce the notion that Heinrich is the frontrunner.

NM-Sen: Rasmussen: Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (46), Heather Wilson (R): 41 (42).

NV-Sen: The poll-a-palooza continues: SurveyUSA has released the Senate component of that Nevada poll that got a lot of attention a day earlier for its presidential numbers. This portion has Republican Sen. Dean Heller staked to a five-point edge (44-39) over Democrat Shelley Berkley. However, the big caveat to this SUSA offering, as I noted in Wednesday night's Polling Wrap, is that the pollster seems to have found every conservative Latino in the state for their sample. In a state where in 2010 Harry Reid carried Hispanics with 69 percent of the vote, SUSA has Heller leading Berkley with that critical voting bloc. And by double digits, no less!

There is, however, one issue of genuine concern for Democrats: Nearly three-fifths of voters knew of the House Ethics investigation of Berkley, and 42 percent said it made them less likely to vote for her. Perhaps that might be because many of those voters don't know what the investigation is about (regular readers of the digest know the "charges" are pretty damned weak), but just saying the words "ethics investigation" is going to inherently carry a negative connotation for voters. (Steve Singiser)

VA-Sen: Nothing ever seems to change significantly in the Virginia Senate race, to the extent that PPP seems to have given up on trying to find interesting things to say about it. At any rate, their newest look at the matchup between Dem ex-Gov. Tim Kaine and GOP ex-Sen. George Allen finds a 46-46 tie between them. That's a slight boost for Allen, as Kaine led 46-44 last month. It's worth noting that outgoing Sen. Jim Webb would probably be in a similarly close race if he'd decided to stand for re-election; he's at a middling 37/37 approval. (David Jarman)

Gubernatorial:

MO-Gov: PPP's one-night poll on Monday also included questions on several other key races in the state. In the gubernatorial contest, Dem Gov. Jay Nixon leads Dave Spence 46-37, not too different from his previous 45-34 mark in May. Meanwhile, in the lieutenant governor's race, LG Peter Kinder is ahead of Democratic challenger Susan Montee 45-38, and for attorney general, Dem AG Chris Koster barely edges Ed Martin 41-39. Romney, by the way, beats Obama 52-42.

MT-Gov: The RGA hits Democrats Steve Bullock on a theme that Republicans have used before: his refusal, in his capacity as state AG, to join the multi-state lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act. I thought Bullock's earlier pushback against this charge was really weak and technical, so I hope he's figured out something sharper this time. At least he can now say he didn't want to waste state funds on an unsuccessful suit.

NH-Gov: Pre-primary fundraising reports were just filed in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race. On the GOP side, front-runner Ovide Lamontagne has raised $1.2 million since the start of the campaign and has $718K left in the bank, while Kevin Smith took in $342K and has $101K on-hand. For Democrats, Maggie Hassan raised $930K but has spent a lot, leaving her with just $101K left; her rival, Jackie Cilley, took in a much smaller $269K and has only $52K in her warchest. Interestingly, despite the huge spending disparity, Hassan only led Cilley six points in PPP's recent poll of the primary.

VT-Gov: Castleton State College's new poll of the Vermont gubernatorial contest (an easy one to forget about) is all but identical to its prior survey, from May. They find Dem Gov. Peter Shumlin smooshing former state Sen. Randy Brock by a 60-26 margin; last time, Shumlin led 60-27. When we first launched our 2012 governors race ratings, we slotted the Green Mountain State in at "Likely D" out of an abundance of caution—the only poll we had at the time was a PPP survey which featured Shumlin at 51%. He's also in his first (two-year) term and won very narrowly in 2010, so we thought we'd play it safe. But it looks like there's really just no way Brock will be competitive, so we're moving the race to Safe D.

House:

AZ-06: The dreaded Ophthalmologists have come in with a spot of last-minute help for GOP Rep. Dave Schweikert, spending $18K on mail on his behalf just ahead of Tuesday's primary.

FL-18: Democrat Patrick Murphy has a bunch of kids recite some of Allen West's most infamous remarks verbatim as though they were schoolyard taunts—which is pretty much exactly what they are. Says Murphy: "Bullying and name-calling has no place in the playground—or in Congress," and one of his little helpers tells West: "You need a time out!" That's a good start, but I vote for expulsion.

MI-01: The DCCC is out with a second ad targeting GOP freshman Dan Benishek, hitting the same theme as the first, Medicare. The buy is for a reported $51K.

NC-02: Here's a poll from an off-the-radar district, North Carolina's 2nd, home to GOP freshman Renee Ellmers. Ellmers was one of the most unexpected pieces of flotsam washed in with 2010's red tide, but her fellow Republicans made sure to shore her up in redistricting, and the one guy who seemed like he could give her a stiff challenge—ex-Rep. Bob Etheridge, the man she beat last cycle—opted for a pointless gubernatorial bid instead. Instead, Democrats wound up with Iraq vet Steve Wilkins, who hasn't raised any money. But Wilkins did find enough cash to pay for PPP to go into the field, and they found Ellmers leading 44-28, since Wilkins of course is entirely unknown. Ellmers sports a pretty mediocre 29-26 job approval rating and re-elects of 32%. All that said, it's pretty hard to imagine this race becoming a priority for national Democrats.

NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell's dropped a new internal, from his usual pollster, Anzalone Liszt. He currently holds a somewhat underwhelming 43-39 lead over former congressional aide Richard Hudson, which is actually a good bit tighter than the 46-36 edge Kissell sported back in March. Given that most of the undecided voters in this now-rather-red district are likely GOP-leaning, 43% is kind of a concerning place to be. But Anzalone's memo repeats a point made when the prior poll came out, noting that because "only a narrow majority of the current district (55%) was represented by Kissell under the previous lines, he has more expansion potential than most incumbents would in a traditional election year." And Kissell has spent little on paid media. Still, this is going to be a very hard race.

NE-02: This is highly unusual, to say the least. Democrat John Ewing, waging an uphill battle against GOP Rep. Lee Terry, is touting a new internal poll he commissioned from, of all firms, We Ask America. I don't think I realized that WAA did work for hire, but the odd part, of course, is that they're a right-wing firm that's a subsidiary of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers' Association. On top of that, Ewing apparently leaked the results to Watchdog.org, a conservative media network. Anyhow, if you can get past all that, the numbers are surprisingly good for the challenger, finding him trailing Terry 46-40. Obama also trails Romney in the district 47-43, which is decently plausible, seeing as Obama famously beat McCain here 50-49.

NY-01: Even though he's already under assault on the airwaves by Dem Rep. Tim Bishop, Republican Randy Altschuler has decided to go positive with his first ad. Altschuler comes off as painfully stiff, which is probably why it's mostly narrated by his wife, who tries to paint him as a "self-made businessman."

NY-25: I like veteran Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter's new ad (her first of the cycle), which features footage of her speaking at a really earlier this month on the subject of fair trade and companies which send jobs overseas. Considering that she's 83 and just suffered a debilitating leg injury this past spring, I think she looks awesome and full of energy, especially since this ad wasn't filmed in a studio with perfect lighting and makeup and multiple takes. And of course, I love her wonderful Kentucky drawl, which you just never expect to hear out of a politician from upstate New York.

PA-06: This is definitely some amazing chutzpah: GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach is trying to brand his Democratic opponent, physician Manan Trivedi, as some kind of carpetbagger because—get this—Trivedi's home got moved out of the redrawn 6th District by Gerlach's fellow Republicans during redistricting! Indeed, Trivedi lived in the 6th when he first challenged Gerlach last cycle, then was conveniently moved just two miles outside the new lines in an obviously deliberate gimmick by the GOP. But of course Gerlach is acting like Trivedi's some kind of Dennis Kucinich running for Congress in Washington. Trivedi's camp is also incensed that Gerlach claimed the district is "foreign" to him; Trivedi, who is Indian-American, branded that phrase as racially coded rhetoric.

PA-12: The size of the buy on that new House Majority PAC ad attacking Republican Keith Rothfus: $98K.

TX-14: Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson's campaign has decided to trot out an old internal poll Anzalone Liszt conducted for them all the way back in May, before Texas even conducted is primaries. I'm guessing they sat on the numbers for as long as they did to avoid giving GOP primary voters a reason to vote against state Rep. Randy Weber, seeing as Lampson leads him by a 44-40 margin. Lampson also sports a 45-19 favorability rating thanks to his earlier service in Congress. Still, it will be a difficult climb to 50%+1 given that the district sits in what the memo itself acknowledges is the "expensive Houston media market."

Other Races:

VT-AG: Vermont's one of the few states left with primaries still outstanding, and the most competitive race you'll see this year in the solidly-blue state isn't in November but the Democratic AG primary. Long-time incumbent Bill Sorrell is facing a challenge from up-and-comer T.J. Donovan, the State's Attorney in Chittenden Co., Vermont's largest county. It seems to be a generational challenge more than an ideological one, but Sorrell seems to be surviving for now, leading 44-24 in the same Castleton poll that just hit VT-Gov. (One caveat: The MoE on the Dem primary portion is an outrageous 7%.) (David Jarman)

Grab Bag:

Arizona: A ballot measure that would move Arizona to a top-two primary system (like the one used in California and Washington) just got dinged by election officials because organizers failed to submit enough signatures. Supporters say they plan to sue to overturn the ruling.

Crossroads: Karl Rove's Crossroads GPS (hey, they're a charity, so remember them at Christmastime) is firing off a new $4.2 million salvo of campaign ads, targeting Democrats in four states: Florida (Bill Nelson, on Medicare), Montana (Jon Tester, on the debt), New Mexico (Martin Heinrich, on spending), and Ohio (Sherrod Brown, on healthcare and taxes). You can find all of the ads at the link, and here's a fact-check (PDF) from Tester.

Nevada: Well, whaddya know. Back in June, we mentioned a new lawsuit filed by Republicans seeking to eliminate the state's unusual "none of these candidates" option on the ballot. This choice (also known as "none of the above" or just "NOTA") was, by law, nothing more than a protest vote—even if NOTA wins a plurality or majority, those votes are simply discarded and the candidate with the next-highest total is declared the winner. Republicans sued, arguing that throwing out these votes constituted disenfranchisement.

Now a federal judge has agreed with the GOP, striking down NOTA for all elections in the state. Secretary of State Ross Miller, a Democrat, says he will pursue an immediate appeal. For reasons that aren't quite clear (or at least, haven't been demonstrated in any empirical fashion), Republicans seem convinced that NOTA is more likely to hurt them than it is Democrats. Perhaps Nevada's home to a small group of cranky, conservative-leaning voters who can't resist the allure of pulling the NOTA lever but would instead vote Republican if denied that choice?

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by These Green Mountains and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Sabato's got a useful primer up (6+ / 0-)

    about post-Convention bounces.

    While 5 points is par for the course he notes that both sides received very low bounces in 2004 (2 points for Bush, 0 for Kerry). His explanation: "Kerry had a high floor, due to opposition to George W. Bush, and a low ceiling as well, owing to Bush’s strong base backing."

    I strongly suspect that 2012 will be similar to 2004, as opinion on Obama seems to be both polarised and pretty stable - this year his approval has moved in an incredibly narrow band between about 44 and 49 points. I don't expect that Romney will get much of a bounce, but nor do I expect Obama to move the dial back the other way much. Most likely we'll be back where we are now in the polls come mid-September.  

  •  Heather Wilson is mean-spirited. (0+ / 0-)

    Why do Republicans elect nasty people?  Well, if Democrats don't stand up to them, then the safer option is just to give the meanies what they want and hope they'll leave you alone.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

    by hannah on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 05:11:47 AM PDT

  •  What was Rivera trying to accomplish? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLDemocrat

    If it was to put Garcia through a primary test, that helps the winner as often as it hurts, maybe more .  If it was to create a racial cleavage, couldn't he have found an actual African-American candidate?  

    By the way, I did like Louise Slaughter's accent and vigor.  Two of her three claims are wacky (who bans our products? why should all of our defense materials be made in the US but other countries are supposed to by our stuff?)  but it's nonsense deeply ingrained in our party.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 05:15:03 AM PDT

    •  There is a distinct case (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      to be made for requiring domestic production of military hardware, for two reasons:

      (1) In the event of a conflict, it's bad policy to be dependent upon imports for key components; and

      (2) Related to (1), it's best to have the components manufactured in an environment where the government can exercise at least some control over the process, including the security arrangements.

      For these reasons, military hardware production and normal goods don't follow the same logic.

      •  That logic, if pursued by other countries... (0+ / 0-)

        ....would destroy our defense industries.  And it's a logic that profoundly insults our allies, because it presumes they won't be allies tomorrow.

        This is just badly disguised protectionism.  I have nothing against protectionism--it's my instint, really--but I do have something against nonsense claims about our actual security.

        Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

        by Rich in PA on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 11:47:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know what you're going on about. (0+ / 0-)

          Consider that most imports to the US are by sea. What's the first thing that the opponent tries to disrupt in a war? Movement of materiel. Hence, it makes perfect sense for the government to source materiel where it can protect the manufacture and transportation thereof effectively.

          It has no bearing on the political state, present or future, of present arms suppliers.

    •  What specific part is nonsense? (0+ / 0-)

      I consider myself a free trader, but it's clear that the situation isn't as clear cut as some make it out to be.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 10:00:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There is no free trade in defense components. (0+ / 0-)

        There's free trade in thoroughly commodified, non-critical bits of defense components, and some people would like to eliminate that because it makes demagogic good sense.  But it doesn't make sense on any other level.

        Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

        by Rich in PA on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 11:49:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Pretty Sure I Last Heard The Name Bugs Meany.... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo, aamail6, Alibguy, itskevin, jncca

    ....in 4th grade, circa 1988.  Nicely done.

    •  sad the author died this month :( (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      David Nir, Larsstephens

      I used to really enjoy Encyclopedia Brown.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 12:22:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nate Silver's write-up on yesterday's polling (16+ / 0-)

    has come in belatedly this morning here, but it's a long one and well worth the wait.

    For one thing he underlines what was clear from the numbers in the model last night, that yesterday was a rather good polling day for Obama. He particularly singles out the Quinnipiac OH poll as a significant one.

    But for me even more interesting is the long discussion he then moves onto on "how to evaluate a poll", giving seven features to look for that will help in assessing a new poll and getting "under the hood". I'm sure I'll be referring back to that one a few times in the next couple of months.

    I have to hand it to Nate Silver. His basic job of writing up a review each day of the model's updates could have been a really tedious one, both to write and to read, especially in an election year when, so far at least, the race has been incredibly static. It could easily have just been a series of variations on the theme "well, not much really changed today". Instead he's used the write-ups as oportunities to discuss a wide range of issues relating to elections and their analysis which are often brimful of fascinating data and insights. He's one of the very few political analysts who really earns his pay.

    •  thank you so much for that- (5+ / 0-)

      he's wonderful, isn't he?

      i think it takes an extra kind of smarts to be able to explain things so an average person like me can understand. i love how he explains this:

      ...the candidate who is leading in a state should be pleased when the number of undecided voters falls, as this can make a small lead more robust. A 49-47 deficit is harder to overcome than 45-43, even though the margin between the candidates is two points in each instance.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 06:24:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another caveat on the VT-AG primary poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beltane

    It was of registered voters, in what will be a fairly low-turnout primary.  

    Donovan has easily the more enthusiastic supporters, and waged a much more energetic campaign -- Sorrell has never had a competitive race, and it showed, as he even managed to not show up to earn the party caucus' endorsement.  

    Incumbents have a big advantage in such a small state as this, but I think it will end up very close -- I don't believe that 20 point margin for a second.

  •  RAss MO: Obama 47-46 (13+ / 0-)

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

    Now I know his senate poll was BS.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 06:36:09 AM PDT

    •  that's hilariious (9+ / 0-)

      PPP has Obama losing by 10. Well one thing for sure either PPP or Rasmussen will be totally discredited this year.
      Most likely after his senate poll didn't get rid of Akin he was told to show Obama would win the state if Akin is on the ticket.

      •  I wouldn't go that far. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod

        That is, unless you think Rasmussen, or even PPP, is putting its thumbs on the scales. Rasmussen may be shoddy in a lot of ways, but every so often, they might get one right.

        It'll be interesting to see if any other firms poll the state in the next few weeks.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 10:02:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Rasmussen has already been (0+ / 0-)

        totally discredited...

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 04:07:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, we can't take Ras seriously anymore. (7+ / 0-)

      If we ever did.

    •  Frankly to an outsider (0+ / 0-)

      It would look like both PPP and Rasmussen have cooked the books on these ones.

      Miraculously both have managed to find samples which both contradict their previous views of the MO races and fit with a narrative which suits their own partisan side.

      Rasmussen I'm sure is putting his thumb on the scale here but I'm afraid I have suspicions about PPP too. These results are far too convenient, on both sides.

      •  PPP (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bythesea, Chachy, askew, stevenaxelrod

        Unlike Rass, they usually don't do one day samples.  So their MO poll may be due to poor polling technique than thumb on the scale.

        “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

        by Paleo on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 06:53:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  PPP never cooks the books, they are honest (5+ / 0-)

        Rasmussen very clearly has wild outliers all the time, almost always conveniently favorable to the GOP.

        I've explained the difference before, PPP is a client-based business that can't afford to have a reputation for being wrong, since they feed their families from the fees paid by clients who demand accurate numbers.  That doesn't mean PPP doesn't mess up, but it does mean they have an uncompromisable incentive to try their best to get it right, including on their freebie public polls which are essentially the same as free samples at Costco, designed to draw in paying clients.

        Rasmussen doesn't have clients, they have subscribers who are random people on the internet.  And like Fox News, Rasmussen designed his business to attract conservative customers, and his job is to give the emotional satisfaction, not accuracy.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 08:09:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not Sure That Is Rasmussen BS (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod

      Yeah he could be pushing a narrative that will pressure Akin to drop out. Theory that I am going on is that in swing states where the behavior of the right has been particularly unpopular over the last couple of years and not successfully challenged from the left, Obama is holding on. The 2010 Senate races in Nevada and Colorado where the right wingers nominated teabaggers, Obama is hanging on. Unpopular Governors Scott and Kasich in Florida and Ohio and Obama is hanging on. Obama won Indiana in 2008 but it is pretty much written off with popular Governor Daniels. Ultrasounds in Virginia and Obama is hanging on. Maybe with Akin, Missouri, which was the McCain state won by the narrowest margin, is in play.

      •  Rasmussen is closer than PPP in MO (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        stevenaxelrod, Larsstephens

        Nate Silver said so emphatically in his article last night:

        My view is that the Rasmussen Reports poll represents a more-realistic portrayal of the race as it stands now. It postdates the Public Policy Polling survey by 48 hours: potentially relevant as many Republicans denounced Mr. Akin and tried to coax him out of the race on Tuesday and Wednesday.
        Neither poll is just right, but Ras is closer to the truth here.
  •  Rivera's more Bugs Moran than Bugs Meany /nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Larsstephens

    Don't roof rack me bro', Now the brown's comin' down; Präsidentenelf-maßschach; "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) "Ensanguining the skies...Falls the remorseful day".政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 06:40:24 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen MO Pres: Obama 47 Romney 46 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Aquarius40, KingTag, EcosseNJ, askew

    I have to say the post-Akin polling by PPP and Rasmussen makes a convincing case for "funny business" among polling agencies. In their previous MO polls Rasmussen had said the presidential race was a comfortable Romney lead, while PPP had consistently rated it a squeaker.

    Now the two agencies have completely inverted their views of the race.

    And conveniently that goes along with them finding samples which push the narrative their respective political perspectives would find convenient about the MO Senate race. Naturally I'm more suspicious about Rasmussen than about PPP but that could be my own bias at play. Very fishy all round.

  •  FL Republicans may be stuck w/Rivera, but (0+ / 0-)

    that doesn't mean he won't get elected. Partisanship can outweigh common sense or common decency. Don't misunderestimate that.

    I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. - Paul Krugman

    by Gentle Giant on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 06:42:05 AM PDT

  •  That's all the FL Republicans need... (7+ / 0-)

    another scandal to prop up the belief that they are, at heart, crooks.

    They are already underwater with the Presidential race. I have to believe that this will hurt them more.

    After all, their governor is Rick (take the 5th 75 times) Scott.

    •  Rmoney out with another lying ad! (0+ / 0-)

      distorting Obama's words AGAIN with Obama saying "our plan worked" - referring to the Clinton years of tax cuts only for the middle class - the job creators.

      "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

      by MartyM on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:02:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA ballot - Greens yes; Virgil Goode no (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, askew, stevenaxelrod

    The GOP successfully bullied (threats of $xxx,xxx legal fees even if successful) Virgil Goode and the Constitution Party to drop their attempt to gain access to PA's November ballot.  The Green Party nominee will be on the PA ballot.  Hopefully, Virgil Goode will re-double his efforts in Virginia after what the PA Republicans did to him.

  •  Gallup/USA Today (7+ / 0-)

    have a new poll up comparing Romney and Obama on the usual issues like likeability, the economy, taxes and so forth.

    On most measures Obama has improved his position versus the last edition in July.

    There's been a particularly strong move on "better handling of taxes", which has turned around from a Romney lead of 4 to an Obama lead of 9.

    Looks to me like the barrage of attacks by the Obama campaign over the last month have taken their toll on Romney here....

  •  Rivera's actions won't bother GOPers at all (3+ / 0-)

    Considering that the large majority of Republicans are authoritarians verging on sociopathy, they consider open malfeasance to be evidence of manly, Christian leadership qualities. Their attitude is "if you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'."

    The more perplexing question is why so many erstwhile Democrats in every state continue to vote for Republicans.

  •  trust me when i tell you, the nation's (10+ / 0-)

    jail cell's are not filled with the next albert einsteins, or the next "great american authors", they are filled with people like mr. rivera, not the brightest bulbs in the criminal firmament. my cat could have done a better job of pimping a fake candidate, and gotten away with it. in fairness, my cat lives with me, and i've taught him better. did i mention my great humility?

    if mr. rivera is too inept to even accomplish this small-scale corruption, what makes anyone think he would be capable of pulling off the large-scale corruption republican office holders are well known for? don't the voters in his district deserve a more competent criminal, to represent them in congress? i think they do!

  •  Post Akin: time to target social conservatives (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, stevenaxelrod, madhaus

    in moderate House districts?

    Wild guess: the campaign against Akin could have beneficial effects against Steve King in Iowa. I'd think they'd be getting saturation coverage from neighboring Missouri.

    DKE question: in what other House districts could a campaign against Akin have a beneficial effect? As Akin's comments have been nationalized, I am hopeful that the beneficial effects for Ds could extend nationwide, at least in districts that are  > R+5.

    "I hope; therefore, I can live."
    For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

    by tietack on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:17:44 AM PDT

  •  Why Things Are Better than We Should Expect (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    http://nationaljournal.com/...

    Charlie's analysis is spot on (as always).  As I have been saying in my posts lately the white/non-white thing is going to kill Romney.  If Obama can keep his percentage of the white vote to between 38 - 40% (compared with 43% the last time out) it is basically in the bag.  

    •  He ignores the other side of the coin (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bythesea, askew, stevenaxelrod

      Obama's likeability, charm, whatever.  Other incumbents running in bad economies--Hoover, Carter, Bush I--did not have that.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:30:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I often disagree with Cook (3+ / 0-)

      but the following bits are spot on:

      Incumbents generally don’t get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today.
      I think he indirectly answers Paleo's' comment, with his first two points:
      First, Romney is a very bright guy but hardly a natural candidate.
      snip
      Until his campaign finally began airing biographical ads a few weeks ago, his election effort seemed to studiously avoid trying to establish any bond, any connection, or any level of trust between him and American voters.
      He addresses how Romney has spurned Hispanics
      Third is Romney’s decision to spurn an effort by Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to find a middle ground for the Republican Party on the Dream Act that could well have cut at least a little into Obama’s 35-point lead among Latino voters.
      And Romney doesn't even listen to James Carville's axiom
      Bringing Medicare, Social Security, and deep spending cuts into the conversation only distracts from the focus on the struggling economy and makes Romney’s path to victory that much more challenging.

      "I hope; therefore, I can live."
      For SSP users, see my Tips for Swingnuts diary

      by tietack on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:35:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  When was the last time Romney talked jobs (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack

        or the economy in any serious way? Think about it, and if you are hard pressed to answer, you are not alone.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 10:06:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ROFL (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      at this comment in the article:

      Um, Charlie, you forgot the biggest reason by far.  The public education system has created a populace liberally sprinkled with drooling idiots.  Submorons that believe you can spend your way to prosperity and borrow your way out of debt.  Utter slugs that refuse to get a job because stealing money from their fellow citizens is soo much easier.  'Tards that couldn't tell you one damn thing about The Federalist Papers, including who even wrote them, much less why and what's in them.  And our Republic may not survive THAT.

      Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

      by ehstronghold on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:54:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Here's an interesting tidbit I came across this (2+ / 0-)

    morning.  An AP story reports that the Romney campaign has used advance data mining to identify large campaign contributors.  And it's working, as in he raised $350,000 in San Franscisco, with a $400 average contribution to his campaign.

    http://hosted2.ap.org/...

    Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

    by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:26:06 AM PDT

    •  I'm skeptical (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, Larsstephens

      I keep get fundraising letters from Romney even though I live in a very liberal area (in NC), am a registered Democrat, have voted in the Democratic primary in every primary election since 2004, and gave a lot of money to Obama in 2008.  All of this is publicly available info.  I'm not sure why their "advance data mining" is tarketing me as a possible Romney donor.  I don't mind them wasting their money on sending me mail, but it's a shame how much paper is being wasted.

      •  We get similar letters from Chris Christie in NJ (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        odd as the missus isn't registered either way... but always votes the sane way... :)

        Anyway I recycle them after a good tearing session and ponder at how ironic this is given the Repugs general [lack of] green attitude...

        "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

        by EcosseNJ on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 08:29:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Me, too (0+ / 0-)

        I've gotten a couple Romney prospecting mailers this year, and I was shocked.  I've given thousands to Obama already, and campaign finance records show me as a longtime Dem donor who has never given to a Republican.  And I've voted in only Dem primaries, never GOP.

        It just underscores how inefficient direct mail really is, and campaigns who raise gobs of money from it are lucky to keep 10% of the take because of the expense.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 12:41:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What Data Mining? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      It's a Mormon thing.  This is like Proposition 8 on steroids.  

      www.stephanhuller.blogspot.com

      •  It's more like an NSA or CIA thing, a series of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        techniques that crunch every bit of available data that is out there on anyone, and in the case of marketers, it locates likely candidates for whatever they are selling, be it a product, service or candidate.  NSA, CIA, et as, use it to ID terrorists and the like.

        Republicans are like alligators. All mouth and no ears.

        by Ohiodem1 on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 09:35:03 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  i hope this is a problem for them- i really do (0+ / 0-)
      There are no records of payments to Buxton from Romney's campaign, the Republican National Committee or a joint fundraising committee. Under federal law, companies cannot use corporate money or resources, such as proprietary data analysis, for in-kind contributions to campaigns.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:54:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I just assumed the was already happening (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Larsstephens

      on both sides.  And I'd be concerned if the Dems and OFA in fact are not doing this.

      An OFA Campaign Web Ad is the new Reid "sternly worded letter".

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 07:55:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  OFA is def doing it (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Larsstephens

        They did traditional data mining in 2008. This cycle they hired people to do very sophisticated analysis of web behaviors etc. They bought him on last year.

        2012: It's about the Supreme Court. Follow me on Twitter @farrellmcmanus

        by HarlemUSA on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 08:10:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There was an article in The WSJ, I think, a few (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Larsstephens

          months back talking about how Democrats were doing much the same. If you were on a list for supporting a ballet or something, they figured you were more likely to be open to donating to Democrats. Makes sense, I guess.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Aug 24, 2012 at 10:08:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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