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jobs reported for April by ADP
Although it often does not mesh with the government's monthly report, Automated Data Processing's report on job gains in the private sector is closely watched because the trend in both reports is almost always in the same direction. In that regard, ADP's report released Wednesday provides no reason for optimism. Private payrolls rose by only a seasonally adjusted 119,000 jobs for April, ADP said, far below the consensus of experts surveyed ahead of time, and below the revised gains of 131,000 for March, originally reported as 158,000. Moody's Analytics conducts the survey with ADP:
"Nearly every industry has seen slower growth since the beginning of the year," Moody's economist Mark Zandi said on CNBC. "Smaller businesses are experiencing much weaker growth."
One good feature of the ADP survey is that it measures job gains or losses by company size. For April, small businesses (1-49 employees) added 50,000 jobs, medium-sized  businesses (50-499 employees) added 26,000, and large businesses (500 or more employees) added 43,000. Almost all the gains came from the service sector with 113,000 new jobs added, with only 6,000 in the goods-producing sector. Manufacturing posted a loss of 10,000 jobs; construction added 15,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its report on both public- and private-sector jobs Friday. The median forecast by experts is that the government report will show 148,000 new jobs added compared with just 88,000 last month. But a straight extrapolation of the ADP report to the BLS report would put the number at 110,000.

Another report released Wednesday counted even fewer job gains based on income tax withholding to the Treasury. TrimTabs Investment Research says just 67,000 jobs were added in April.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management reported a drop in its manufacturing index for April to 50.7, down 0.6 over March, which itself was down 2.9 percentage points over February. That indicates manufacturing is still expanding but at a slower rate. Positives in the report showed new orders rising to 52.3 percent from 51.4 percent, and the production index rose to 53.5 percent from 52.2 percent.

But ISM's employment index fell by four percentage points to 50.2 percent, the lowest level in seven months and another indication that Friday's government job report will be weak.

All three reports point to yet another spring slowdown after a stronger start in the first few months of the year. That's been the pattern since 2010.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Labor on Wed May 01, 2013 at 07:43 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Economics and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (16+ / 0-)

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Wed May 01, 2013 at 07:44:00 AM PDT

  •  The sequester slowing down the (8+ / 0-)

    economy?  

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Wed May 01, 2013 at 07:56:13 AM PDT

    •  Yes. (9+ / 0-)

      When government & military contracts dry up, small businesses that rely on them dry up. The suppliers to the small businesses dry up. Eventually, the problem "trickles up" to big businesses, who can't sell their millions of widgets to small businesses.

      Add to that the fact that banks are not lending to anyone- small businesses in particular, and investors are sitting on their cash.

      They're "treating" a severely anemic economy by inflicting a thousand cuts.  Sooner or later we're going to bleed out.  

      •  ISM number is depressing. (0+ / 0-)

        The diary references the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) index.  This is a very important leading economic indicator for private sector growth, but interpreting it is not obvious.

        The minimum value for the ISM is zero and the max is 100.  It is designed so that an ISM less than 50% means the economy is getting smaller and over 50 means the economy is expanding.

        Having the ISM drop from 51.3 to 50.7% means the economy slowed drown further from very slow growth to barely noticeable growth.

        The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

        by nextstep on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:50:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Small order effect (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PatriciaVa

      We've averaged about 1.45% GDP growth in these 4 years: 2009-2012. Policies are in place to maintain this level and type of growth. I expect nothing better than 2% GDP growth over the next 4 yrs.... 2013 thru 2017.

      IIRC the sequester cuts for 2013 are 85 billion, worst case that may result in an annual loss of 1.7 million jobs. Using a multiplier of 2. I think 1.2 to 1.4 million jobs lost is more realistic.

      Ending the payroll tax holiday removed 100 billion from the economy, this has an even smaller effect than the sequester.

      CBO projects 1.4% GDP growth in 2013 and a very rosey 3.4% in 2014. Based on what I dont know.
      https://www.cbo.gov/...

      .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

      by Roger Fox on Wed May 01, 2013 at 10:06:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the sequester... (5+ / 0-)

        ...deserves a bigger multiplier.

        1) It hits the income of government workers first, a group that has grown accustomed to thinking that they were safe. They will cut spending more drastically than others might.

        2) It creates a lot of uncertainty.  Nobody knows where the ax will fall. How many households are cutting spending because they might be sequestered? Probably more than 1.7 million!

        3) It results in actual productivity loss. Government spending provides daycare so moms can work. They make the lines shorter at airports so people can get to meetings. They fix potholes so that trucks can deliver goods and services. It is not just "job creation", Government does useful stuff, and now that stuff will go undone.

        If I was a terrorist trying to hurt the American Economy, I could not think of a better way to do it than this Sequester.

        •  the best is infrastructure 2- 2.5 multplier (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PatriciaVa

          You can't go more than that.

          Clerical and Manufacturing jobs are 1.5 to 1.8, the payroll tax holiday was 1.1 to 1.3.

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Wed May 01, 2013 at 12:37:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Citations starting with CBO (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PatriciaVa
          result in the loss of 750,000 jobs in 2013, Douglas Elmendorf, the director of the Congressional Budget Office told lawmakers Wednesday.

          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

          cost the nation about 1.5 million jobs.
          http://articles.washingtonpost.com/...
          THE SEQUESTER WOULD COST THE ECONOMY OVER 1 MILLION JOBS IN 2013
          & 2014
          http://bipartisanpolicy.org/...

          .................expect us......................... FDR 9-23-33, "If we cannot do this one way, we will do it another way. But do it we will.

          by Roger Fox on Wed May 01, 2013 at 12:55:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  (3) is the only thing that's really a problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          dinotrac

          (1) Saving is good, not bad. Capital formation is a major key to a good economy. It's short term painful, but the more people with substantial savings in the long term, the better. Remember all those diaries bemoaning the fact that the average American family has some ridiculously small savings? This is the remedy.

          (2) Again, same as 1. Government workers like any class of citizens tightening their belt is bad in the short term but good in the long term.

          (3) Actual productivity losses are a problem. We need to support those parts of the government that help private sector economic activity for precisely that reason. An air traffic controller is valuable because they direct airplanes from place to place, not because they are a customer of some restaurant somewhere.

          (-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
          Leadership doesn't mean taking a straw poll and then just throwing up your hands. -Jyrinx

          by Sparhawk on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:36:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  If you take out business inventory... (4+ / 0-)

        ...from GDP, which is always a noisy statistic anyway, GDP for the past three quarters is 2.4%, 1.9%, 1.5%. Not exactly a great trend in a recovery that has seen only three quarters in the past 15 above 3%.

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Wed May 01, 2013 at 11:16:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Should also factor out population growth (0+ / 0-)

          to get close to what people feel.  2012 pop growth rate is estimated at 0.9% from CIA World Factbook

          That puts per capita GDP growth at 1.5%, 1.0% and 0.6% for the past three quarters.  Far from what is needed to lower unemployment let alone a higher standard of living.

          The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

          by nextstep on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:39:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  And well before any effects from the sequester hit (0+ / 0-)

          whatever they might actually be.

          The reality, one which you have relentlessly reported, is that the economy is not and has not been sunshine and lollipops.

          That's also the only reason to care about the sequester's effect on the economy as opposed to its effect on service delivery.  If the economy is robust and/or going places, the $85 billion becomes a "who cares".

          But the economy is not robust and it's not going places.
          Hasn't been for a while.

          For my family's sake, I hope that changes and changes soon.
          Democrats should hope the same, if only because 2016 will find people asking "George who?" as Democrats find themselves unable to shake off 8 years of lousy economic performance.

          ( Superfluous policy advice from somebody with no credibility whatsoever:  That thing you did on gun control -- vote on short clear bill after short clear bill.  Do a lot more of that.  When you are doing something that the electorate wants, you win even when you lose. There is always an election looming.)

          LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

          by dinotrac on Thu May 02, 2013 at 03:30:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Adequate GDP growth (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nomandates

        An average yearly GDP growth of 1.45% wouldn't be so bad given that the US population grows at a bit under 1% per year. The real problem is that all the growth gets funneled straight to the top.

    •  yes (0+ / 0-)

      the sequester has been slowing down the economy.

      "The only person sure of himself is the man who wishes to leave things as they are, and he dreams of an impossibility" -George M. Wrong.

      by statsone on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:06:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Season Adjustment? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, Eric Nelson

    It just seems like too much coincidence that this has happened for the fourth year in a row. I understand that some figures are not seasonally adjusted, but could warmer  seasons be moving activity?

    I repeatedly claimed that Obama would never propose cuts to social security. I was wrong. Then again, I also claimed, repeatedly, that Rick Perry would win the 2012 Election, and that The Supreme Court would overturn Health Care Reform.

    by NoFortunateSon on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:08:56 AM PDT

  •  It sure seems like corporations are cashing out.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    ..of manufacturing in the US.

    So people are turning to small business opportunitues as corporations seem to be more interested in cutting costs starting with labor:

     • (1-49 employees) added 50,000 jobs,

     •  medium-sized  businesses (50-499 employees) added 26,000, and

     •  large businesses (500 or more employees) added 43,000.

    Almost all the gains came from the service sector with 113,000 new jobs added, with only 6,000 in the goods-producing sector. - emphasis & buttons added

    Factories for manufacturing actual tangible products appear to be downsizing at least on American soil

    Manufacturing posted a loss of 10,000 jobs;
    I wonder how much of this increase in construction jobs is also a product of smaller businesses too:
    construction added 15,000.
    It looks like big business isn't the place to seek employment, but in smaller diverse businesses which is good.

    Unfortunately it seems that a large share of the small busnesses are lower wage service sector jobs - Probably a result of hoarding (tight lending) by the banks less interested in the risk of gambling in people/businesses.  And are choosing to invest gamble on wall street.

    I may be reading too much into this but the money is going somewhere and it doesn't look like it's manufacturing.

    That's how it looks to me - hopefully another crash can be avoided if the republicans don't completely neuter finance reform laws like Dodd-Frank  

    And Elizabeth Warren's success is strongly supported by Dems

    Thx MB - Friday's BLS jobs report should be interesting

  •  Well this certainly sucks. n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:04:04 PM PDT

  •  Men who kidnap women or children obviously (0+ / 0-)

    have very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very tiny cartoon, evil little tiny, TINY tiny dicks.

    There. I said it.

    http://www.wzzm13.com/...

  •  News isn't great, but one wildcard (0+ / 0-)

    With Americans deleveraging (getting out of debt) it's always possible that some event to raise confidence could ignite a consumer spending boom.  Unless we get that it looks like grinding out slow job gains month after month.

    Too bad the sequester makes that confidence raiser less likely, since it will kill a lot of jobs this year.

    •  One problem that showed up in the GDP report... (0+ / 0-)

      ...for the first quarter is that disposable income did not keep pace with personal expenditures for that period. Makng up the difference: People didn't save as much. That makes igniting a further boom less likely unless there is a major shift in the job market.

      Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

      by Meteor Blades on Wed May 01, 2013 at 08:36:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Speaking for my employer (0+ / 0-)

    (unofficially of course)

    It's a largeish consulting engineering firm that has a substantial business with the U.S. federal government as well as other worldwide governments and the private sector. The reason for our current downturn in hiring (despite brisk business) is uncertainty about the sequester. We're still hiring (typical entry level jobs are in the $50K range and after 10 to 20 years are around $100K or more) but the sequester has caused senior management to put every new hire under the microscope and ask if there's any way we can defer the hire and instead use someone already on board who has been adversely affected by the sequester.

    It's definitely having a negative effect.

  •  Here we go (0+ / 0-)

    some accused the president of exaggerating the pain of the sequester. Guess what,  it is happening  the GOP is mean. They think they are hurting the President look who is getting hurt.

  •  That darned George Bush. (0+ / 0-)

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu May 02, 2013 at 03:20:08 AM PDT

  •  without a significant (0+ / 0-)

    new new deal, we are going to be seeing the "Great Recession" = the "New Normal."  

    It's complicated and yet shocking simple.  Private virtue is public vice; saving money may seem great for families and disastrous for businesses, in terms of the economy.  And without living wage jobs, who is going to stimulate this economy if its not the government?

    This is one crisis of capitalism that a band aid won't fix.  Left to fester, it's going to kill the host.  And that doesn't always turn out quite like we'd hope; see German and Italy c.a. 1930 - and perhaps Greece today?

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Thu May 02, 2013 at 04:25:43 AM PDT

  •  German Manufacturing slowing (0+ / 0-)

    German downturn bodes ill for eurozone:

    Financial data provider Markit said its initial purchasing managers' index (PMI) reading for German manufacturing and services fell to a 6-month low of 48.8 from 50.6 in March, pointing to the first contraction in output since November.
    As macabre as it may seem, I am banking on the Germans eventually saying "this Austerity thing ain't working for us." I think Merkel probably needs to get past her election (assuming she retains government) before she admits as much, and a lot can go "more wrong" between now and the Fall.

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Thu May 02, 2013 at 05:12:02 AM PDT

  •  Why should this be surprising? (0+ / 0-)

    the widest measure for the size and growth of an economy is GDP.  
    GDP is made up of 4 components;
    GDP = (G)ovt spending + (C)onsumer spending + (I)nvestment spending + Net Exports

    The sequester raised taxes (relative to what otherwise would have been) by about $200 billion for this year.....~$140 billion in payroll taxes and ~$60 billion in the fiscal cliff deal (Bush tax cut deal).....this money cuts directly into both (C)onsumer and (I)nvestment spending.

    The sequester will also cut (relative to what otherwise would have been) ~$85 billion from (G)ovt spending this year alone.

    How can you expect GDP to increase when you shrink 3 of the inputs?
    This shit is not that complicated!

    "The Earth is my country and Science my religion" Christiaan Huygens

    by Auburn Parks on Thu May 02, 2013 at 06:02:34 AM PDT

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