Calming the Russian Rowdies is Key
Ensuring Peaceful Transition for Crimean Spring
If Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin are men of their words, the first signs of de-escalation may have already surfaced. During Putin's celebratory "rant to the West" he was careful to mention Crimea was the last stop on Russia's trip to glory. When interviewed yesterday, President Obama was careful to mention the US had no military options for Ukraine. Translation: We need to talk!
Still, in order for peace to bloom in Ukraine this spring, both leaders have major responsibilities in settling the locals down. Crimeans reacting to their new found freedom by strong-arming minorities could jeopardize a smooth transition. Seething Ukrainians must be convinced to focus all efforts toward resurrecting and reestablishing Ukraine as a "real nation" with a credible government.
Should either President Obama or President Putin fail to corral passions and properly redirect energies of these highly volatile factions, the world could be in for another brutal and needlessly expensive conflict. Forget the off ramp and take the shortcut.
Despite the win, Putin actually has the most to loose, so its imperative he pays attention to the details. Now that the party is over, its time for the clean up. The Russian reveler's expectations must be managed.
With an approval rating above 70%, and Western hard liners still itching to take him down a notch, Putin has to transition into the Russian Teddy Bear. This is the time for soft power. Ordering ground units to treat lingering Ukrainians with kid gloves until they've been eased out, will be a good example to set for Russian rowdies.
Remaining in Grizzly mode will only threaten nervous neighbors and give the West an excuse to continue applying economic pressure. The best way to withstand spiteful sanctions is to fortify himself with strong support at home. Making Crimea a showcase for inclusion will defuse external criticism, while paving a road to the new normal.
When assessing the popularity of the West's Three Amigos, they don't fair nearly as well with their respective populations. US President Obama is lucky to be hovering around 40%. Officially a lame duck, even members of his own Party won't be seen in public with him. Besides, the GOP has pledged to keep his ass tied up in knots until the clock runs out.
British Prime Minister David Cameron, slumping to 39% has his hands full keeping the United Kingdom in the EU, while trying trying to convince Scotland from bolting for independence. And France's President Francios Hollande's popularity cratering at 17%, is lucky his head hasn't been shoved on a pike and paraded down the Champs-Élysées yet.
Hardly beyond the realm of reason to presume few among their populaces look forward to participating in another manufactured international conflict, this could all be a convenient diversion from difficult domestic concerns.
Bottom line: When Europe is satisfied the worst is over, ringleaders like the US, the UK and France will have a tough time convincing struggling EU members to sign off on more ineffective sanctions. If anything, they'll pay a little lip service and call this madness for it is; a bunch of Bull Sh*t.