If you're thinking a post on Scotland's independence referendum seems like an odd topic for a US-centric blog and you don't see how it applies to anything that interests you, fair point. I quite understand readers who couldn't care less moving on to the next post. Furthermore, I'm under no delusion we have a large readership who are eligible to vote on Thursday. Nonetheless, I care about this, so for whatever good I might do, this is what I'm saying: independence, at least as proposed, will have the ironic effect of turning Scotland into a vassal state. In other words, those of you who get a vote, vote no.
I get that if you can vote, it might be irritating to have some American who partly shares your ethnicity putting his nose in. Europeans of any ethnicity might get annoyed with European-Americans saying things like, “Oh, you're [ethnicity]? I'm [ethnicity] too!” I get that impression of annoyance when I hear Europeans say things like, “It annoys me when Americans say ‘Oh, you're [ethnicity]? I'm [ethnicity] too!'”.
Yes, it's true, my grandmother was the one who came from Scotland, not me, though my Irish grandfather was likely descended from Scots who settled in Ulster way back in the 16th or 17th century, if that helps. Probably not. So yes, I've been to Scotland just once, for a few days, playing tourist, but that was enough for me to walk the boggy ground at Culloden and see the fresh flowers on the memorial markers. I joined historical reenactors who portray a Scottish regiment in the 30 Years War, and it wasn't from interest in the 30 Years War, but from a desire to learn about, and rescue from romanticization, that time in Scottish history when clans were central to Scottish life, Gaelic was the language of the Highlands, and kilts were those things worn daily out of impoverished necessity. I've studied the wars of independence fought by Bruce and Wallace, wrote a play about them at the same time Braveheart came out and did my best to push back on Mel Gibson's lies, so I know the immense blood Scotland spilled to gain and keep its independence for centuries before it was lost in the Act of Union in 1707. So I get, at a gut level, the urge to wipe the stain of coercion and bribery that attended the Act's passage.
Yet I'm saying don't do it. At least not now, this way.
The clinching argument against independence is the insistence of the pro-independence side that Scotland will keep using the British Pound for its currency. Consider the utterly avoidable depression suffered since the 2008 financial crisis suffered by some of the Eurozone countries. The story isn't just that they broke themselves to meet the EU's and European Central Bank's requirements to focus on government debt and deficits when that's literally the last thing they should have done, but having no control over their own currency took away the option of devaluation. They were forbidden to take inflationary steps when they suffered deflation. They couldn't make their exports cheaper or their labor cheaper. This was despite being part of the EU and presumably having some say in the matter.
Yet Scotland should tie its fate to decisions of the Bank of England when the Bank of England will have no interest in Scotland's fate? The UK might be 85% England, but at least the Bank of England has to care somewhat what the other 15% think. The experience of the Eurozone should prove that currency union without fiscal union is a lousy idea, and at least the Eurozone has a bunch of countries. The Bank of England will care about England (and presumably Wales and Northern Ireland, each a tiny fraction of the rump UK) and that's all. Some countries either use the US dollar for their currency or peg theirs to ours, and do you know how much consideration the Federal Reserve gives them when deciding US monetary policy? Probably about as much consideration as anyone hwho couldn't care less.
Also consider that sentiment towards Scottish independence has normally been driven by the Conservative Party, which sometimes let's show that it doesn't much like the parts of Britain that aren't England. They win majorities despite getting no support in Scotland, and then do thing to tick off the Scots. They presumably will have an easier time winning control of the English government with no Scottish MPs to worry about. Do you really want England governed by people who think sticking it to the Scots might be a neat pastime? So both the English government and Bank of England will have a big influence of Scotland without the least interest in it.
Regarding the EU, don't expect membership to be an option. England will retain the UK's membership, so Scotland will have to seek membership like any non-member, and that membership has to be approved by all members — which won't happen. Several members have their own separatist movements, and the last thing they'll want to do is give those movements encouragement by bringing in Scotland. Not to mention England gets a vote and might be feeling a bit pissy. Maybe that prediction is wrong, but if it's right, consider the risk.
Likewise don't count on the North Sea oil for support. For a while the revenue will continue, but if the oil runs out, or prices fall, then what? I don't know if the oil is anywhere near running out, but as oil is replaced by non-fossil fuel energy sources, the effect might be the same. What else will the economy be based on, and with a big neighbor that might be as interested in making problems worse as making them better. Maybe modern England won't do that, but that is how old England forced union on Scotland in the first place.
To be sure, understanding gut-level nationalism, knowing Scottish history, if Scotland votes to become independent again, I'll feel some national pride too. I'll have Scots Wha Hae and Johnny Cope as earworms (sorry, not Flower of Scotland, because that song just annoys me, please something else for the national anthem). I'll feel a tear coming when the Union Jack and the colors of the Windsors or lowered and replaced by the St. Andrew's Cross and the Rampant Lion. I'll wonder if it brings some comfort to the dead of Falkirk and Flodden. Above all, I'll hope like hell it works.
But until then, I still say “no” — or rather, “not this way”. Figure out what the economy will be like without the North Sea oil, or at least a lot less revenue from it. Come up with Scotland's own currency. As different as the circumstances are between struggles for independence in Scotland and Ireland, the Irish did have the sense to create their own currency when they become independent. Then they paid dearly for the adopting the Euro (yes I know, Ireland stupidly took on its banks' debts, but they lost a tool for dealing with the crisis). If Scotland feels dependent now, at least it has a say in how the UK is run, at least when the Conservatives are out of power, yet imagine Scotland dependent but with no say. Thus my choice of the phrase “vassal state”. Might feel a bit like Edward I, II, and III are still going at it.