Democratic nominee A.J. Balukoff
This is certainly unexpected. The
Republican Governors Association is spending what they describe as "six-figures" in a race that hasn't been on many people's radars until now. The
RGA describes Democratic Boise School Board President A.J. Balukoff as a typical liberal tax-loving politician, who would be a "perfect fit for California." The RGA also
recently spent $200,000 in Oklahoma, another heavily Republican state that had been looking safe for Team Red until recently.
Republican Gov. Butch Otter has never been particularly popular even in this ultra red state. Otter's initial 2006 election was unexpectedly difficult; his 59-33 re-election victory in 2010 was also pretty underwhelming for a Republican incumbent in a friendly state in a wave year. Otter also had a close call in the June primary, beating state Sen. Russell Fulcher by a pretty pathetic 51-44. Otter has been running ads portraying the state economy as humming along but many voters are unhappy with his various budget cuts.
Balukoff has been taking advantage of the apparent voter fatigue with Otter. The Democrat is personally very wealthy and has been running self-funding ads since July. There's been very little publicly released polling to indicate if he's having any luck. A September YouGov poll found Otter up 51-33, but Balukoff claims to have polling showing him in the margin-of-error and gaining. Usually it's pretty hard to take a campaign seriously when they say they have a good poll but won't release it, but the RGA's actions suggest that Otter isn't doing as well as YouGov says.
Democrats haven't won the governorship here since Cecil Andrus' landslide 1990 re-election, and this is a difficult state for Team Blue to compete in even under the best of circumstances. But it looks like there may be more to this race than we thought. We'll definitely keep an eye on this contest to see if the RGA and its allies continue to spend here and if Democratic groups start to smell blood and get involved.
Help elect Democratic governors across the country by giving $3 to Daily Kos' endorsed candidates.