We've all been through our breakdowns of what happened. We all feel bad that in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012, Democrats didn't fair so well in a midterm election. This morning, I posted a breakdown of what happened in Kansas, a true red state. Kansas was swept across the board, and in the statehouse losing 6 house seats, giving Brownback even firmer control.
The question I've been asked repeatedly today is: it is easy to say what is wrong, how do you fix it?
While some of this opinion is relative only to Kansas, I feel most of this applies to all states everywhere, especially red states.
These five rules apply to any State Party (In My Mind) especially red states, though.
First: Stop saying things like "These Stupid People" "Dumb voters" etc. in your facebook, public posts, and elsewhere. This is one of the things that infuriates me most every year. Elections come and go, but you are still surrounded by your neighbors and others who may not agree with you.
We often look for unity on ideas, and as a result we move into neighborhoods where people share our ideas. That isn't true in rural areas as often, and it's definitely not true in red states. The more you say things like "I hate this place" "I think we should all leave", and bash people who live in your state, the harder it is to ever win their vote later. People have a long memory. If they get the feeling that you, as an ideology, think they are stupid, why would they ever at any point listen to you?
If you want to vent, fine. Form a private group on facebook, talk to your friends in private. But yelling from the rooftops how stupid you think other people are does absolutely nothing NOTHING to help you.
You have no idea why they voted the way they did - and the assumption they did so because they are 'dumb' or 'idiots' is offensive. I may think some people have bad ideas, I may personally think they are not good people, but I rarely make blanket statements about entire states, counties, groups of people. In a few months, you need to ask them for their vote again. Why spend all this time building distrust and anger?
Second: Ignore rural voters at your own peril. Rural voters vote as a matter of institutional memory - and they have a long, long memory. This means that if a family votes, the entire family votes continuously. Voter turnout models in Rural Counties matter a great deal, because those families end up with kids who vote like clockwork as well.. and guess what? They don't stay in rural communities. That kid who grew up in a population 1,500 township grows up and moves to a nearby metro. Thanks to the fact you ignored their community for years, they are now reliable like clockwork Republican voters who will show up in a metro. Ryon Carey pointed this out in regards to McPherson County, which will hit near state level highs with voting turnout - institutional memory in rural communities is significant. And when people leave those communities, their reliable (R) vote goes wherever they go.
Third: Communicate frequently with the voters, every month if possible, but at all times, not just in a burst to the election. One of the things I have to praise Tim Huelskamp (gasp) about is the fact that Tim Huelskamp as a congressman, over a course of two years made an effort to conduct numerous townhalls every weekend, going from county to county across the Big 1st.. talking to people. He didn't need a mad dash over 7 months for people to know them, he had two years of communicating with them, and because he was the only one communicating to them as a messenger from DC, guess how effective that was? Very. This doesn't just work for Republicans though. One of the Democrats who survived election day was John Carmichael, Wichita KS. John was in a district with a heavily financed Republican with significant money and support. While John was in office, however, working with Thomas Witt, they constructed a newsletter. This newsletter went out frequently to tell everyone in his district what he was doing, bills that were pending, where he stood on the bills, the status of the debate and contact information. Whether or not they agreed with Carmichael, by the time they got to election season John didn't have to suddenly define who he was for a voter. Voters knew who he was. Republicans do this very well. In Johnson County, the Johnson County Republican Party puts out a newsletter every month, and weekly an email blast called "The Johnson County Fast Five", an information letter on five issues they want Republicans to know about that week.
If you are constantly introducing yourself to people, you're losing. They should know you and what you are about early.
Fourth: Be open and honest with candidates. Do not promise the sky. Don't tell them they are going to win when it's a longshot. You're asking candidates to give up their time and take a personal risk for a journey with you. Make it worthwhile for them. If you have areas that you really can't win, then be honest with a candidate: You know what, you're going to lose here. But you can talk about YOUR issues and spread YOUR ideas, and there is nothing wrong with that. It is sometimes easier to raise money for a candidate who is willing to take big punches on issues because they honestly believe in then to tell them "you have an outside shot if you play this data-structured game that might possibly net you a squeaker of a win". No. Be Honest with Candidates.
Fifth: Answer questions truthfully and do not duck or obfuscate. I will use a moment in Kansas as an example. In an editorial board meeting with the Wichita Eagle, Paul Davis - who sometimes had issues with being nervous and that's OK, put his hands down on the table to make sure he didn't stuff them in his pocket or move his glasses around. That's fine. He was asked several questions, but being instructed to divert-divert-divert back to education, he dodged them. Because this interview happened on the same day as the 10th Circuit Court's ruling in the gay marriage case, they asked Paul: "How do you feel about gay marriage". Paul stopped flat, took a while and said "I have no opinion on that." Now, here is the thing: everyone in the room knew that Paul had an opinion, he just didn't want to get quoted because someone had tested against some rubrick that the idea of him saying anything else might get him in trouble. Paul also must have thought this, as getting up from the table he unfortunately left a room full of unhappy reporters and sweat stains the size of his entire hands. Paul's answer should have just been the truth, "Look, this is the law of the land, I'm not going to fight it, and it's a settled issue". Anything but "I have no opinion". This same issue haunted Allison Grimes.
People may not like your answer if it doesn't match their belief, but worse then that is if they think you are a phony who is hiding what you really feel in order to get their vote. Strong & Wrong beats Weak & Right everytime. Don't hide from yourself. Be who you are as a candidate.
Now, my Kansas specific advice:
FirstIn an earlier diary I argued that Kansas Democratic Party must move it's headquarters to Salina, Kansas and get away from Topeka and out of the Northeast corner. There are several reasons for this, but I will give the most obvious: Kansas Democrats made absolutely no real attempt to do anything but insult the west, and in the end, any gains made in the east were wiped out here. Outside of a poor turnout model, even in Counties that should be Democratic strongholds Davis couldn't get above 33%. Doing the math today, there is no possible way to compensate for this in the counties that are Democratic Friendly. There just isn't. Democrats will struggle to ever make gains in Kansas, and will find ourselves constantly on the outside unless we start paying more attention to the rural roots of Kansas.
A state party run out of Lawrence, Topeka or Johnson County is unacceptable - I say this as someone who lives in Johnson County. Putting the Democratic Party at a great distance from these voters while sneering down at them is a great way to make sure Democrats never get out of the 20s here.
Should the state decide that Jayhawk Tower is still where the party power needs to be, good luck. With that move, most Democrats in the west will quickly just file and run independent, because without an attempt to build a brand in the west it is simply too toxic.
In 2010, a candidate ran in a western county as a Democrat who filed registration and refused to advertise. They didn't walk. They didn't raise money. They sat at home. They won 34% of the vote. This year, in the same county, a candidate sent five pieces of mail, raised good money.. and.. ended up with fewer votes.
We have reached stasis in the west. The brand is tarnished to the extent that without a serious attempt to show that the state is willing to work to fix this, then it never gets any higher, and Democrats stay shut out. It will take a year long effort, and the state party will need to actually be there.
Second We must commit to off year elections. The Democratic Party in Kansas - and in many red states - has no bench. Why? Because they stay uninvolved in City Council races. School boards. Community College Board of Directors. These races connect with the public and allow you to build someone up who can make their name and face known.
Republicans in red states have made it an art of taking over city council and school boards - and look at the results. The reason why you get involved in these races is simple; it registers people to vote, they vote for someone they know, and you build the party both with a candidate and with their connections in a community. If your candidates do well, it is easy for them to start helping you bring in vote.
If you don't have infrastructure at the city & county level because you decided not to participate, then you are sacrificing your best chance to grow.
Thomas Witt & I discussed the idea of how we make spring elections work. Looking at the maps in Kansas a few weeks ago, we realized that in many spring elections less then 15% of eligible voters vote. In some cases, 1,000 votes wins an election for a population 28,000 community. That means limited effort can chance a city government. So, why are we not making the effort? We have to work to build up candidates in order to have the candidates we need in the future.
Third "IT'S X TURN" Is terrible strategy. I'm going to repeat this frequently. "IT'S X TURN" Is terrible strategy.. "IT'S X TURN" Is terrible strategy. "IT'S X TURN" Is terrible strategy. One of the things that state parties struggle with is that they fail to raise money effectively. This is a real problem. Part of the problem is that after a big campaign, even if it fails, party leadership is turned over as a consolation prize for those that ran those races. "Boy, you ran a good race. Sorry you lost, here, become party leadership." NO. Donors do not like this. At all. At the Johnson County debate between Paul Davis and Sam Brownback, an audience member post the debate pointed out, "Eh, you know win or lose, that's your party leadership team for the next four years." Primaries are both good for the party, and they are good for party leadership.
Party leadership that is determined by fiat is bad for the party - a party has almost nothing invested in it. This year, I am rooting for a contested battle for State Party Chair. I have potential candidates in mind, but I think it should be at minimum a debate over who it is and a fight for it. I think, as members of the party, it is an obligation of potential leadership to sell their vision of the party to us, and if they can't sell us on the vision of the party, then they lose. Declaration of leadership because it is "their turn" is another way to keep incestuous control over a party and further alienate those who are not already on the inside.
Fourth - actually back your candidates. In Kansas, State House candidates receive.. well.. nothing. Some may get some mail, but fundraising, institutional support, etc. is all on them. They are also encouraged to never seek outside consultancy. Let me explain how terrible of advice that is: Candidates who are encouraged to do it on their own, or only with party help are sitting ducks who know little and make huge mistakes, sometimes without meaning to - they are also less likely to win. There is nothing wrong with a candidate saying "I need help", and there is nothing wrong with them getting it. If a state wants them to grow, build up a list of people that you find reputable and let your candidates know there are options out there for them. Don't just throw them to the wolves.
Fifth Encourage your county parties to put out monthly newsletters. To be active. To actually bring up issues from January to December, not last minute. Try to grow your party every month, not just in a 5 month push at the end. Looking at the Calendar, this last February, numerous Republican Parties held mini-fairs and small events. Over the summer in 2015, they will take out spaces too. Being a Democrat cannot be about joining the Cancer Club.
Change the state bylaws: if a County Party Chair abdicates, no shows, or refuses to meet performance expectations, allow for them to be shown the door. Having large county parties that raised no money this year is shameful. The chairs involved know who they are. They have my phone number. You can be mad all you want, but you cannot change your filing reports now. If you are not prepared to actually back the Democratic Party in your county, then we need to find someone else.
Sixth Don't sit and wait for Demographics to 'turn your way'. I heard repeatedly this year "at a certain point, Demographics are just going to be too good for Democrats an it will be all over for Republicans". Well, that's only true if you have already made the sale and worked a campaign tor register and build a voting tradition. That isn't a last second push, that is building tradition here. I was proud with our outreach into the Hispanic community - a community that now represents 70% of the vote in some counties in the southwest. And, based on voter turnout in those districts it appears as though less then 5% of that voter base actually voted.
Building tradition means actually talking to people about what they care about. Everyone in the southwest wanted to talk about minimum wage. Every meeting I attended involved the minimum wage and health care. Two issues that NEVER CAME UP. Meanwhile, while many cared about immigration too, Democrats avoided the southwest afraid they'd be seen as on the side of amnesty.
Why? Because there are no other Democrats down there building up a network. Speaking with several individuals, this is the patter of the future. Work to put more people into their local government, and start talking about issues they care about rather than just assume based on their skin color and race the issues they care about. Out of numerous conversations, immigration came up once or twice, but health care? Probably 80% of the time. Pay? About 90% of the time. Bread and butter issues. Bread and butter issues we should have been willing to talk about but we hadn't built up an infrastructure to know what issues needed addressed.
Seventh - You may be in the minority party, but you have to MAKE NOISE. Don't sit on your hands and say "well, Republicans control this, I guess this is what happens". Make noise everytime Republicans get out of line. Call attention to outrageous bills. Point out when the state is wasting money, acting improperly. Even if you are unlikely to pass or even get legislation out of committee, propose legislation. Let people shoot it down in committee or refuse to address it. Then, point out in your newsletters and elsewhere that you at least fought on those issues and lost. Democrats in a minority cannot simply sit around and say "well, we're the party of no". You can't stop anything at this point, now that you are down another six seats - but there is one thing you have control of: your voice. Use it.
Finally - One of the issues that stops a lot of activity in the west is our current state bylaws. I am proud of my support for unions. I believe heavily in unions. But no one in the state party really thought through some of our rules on the use of union labor in western Kansas. Under the current rules, the state party cannot use their mail permit on non-union done printing. If you're in Johnson County, Shawnee County or a major metro, that's fine. If you're in western Kansas, that means you're shipping mail to Kansas City to get it shipped back - significantly increasing your cost and lowering your ability to just get it there. Most of the print shops I ran into in western Kansas were family owned, 2 employee businesses. They couldn't unionize if they wanted. The rule should be changed to accommodate small town vendors, as a sign that the Democrats in this state understand a rural economy and are willing to help go through the 'local' print shop, and the 'local' vendor, who is actually a voter in that district.
I want to support unions as well, but we have to be realistic. None of the people in these small, population 3,000 and less towns is running to a giant printing company that is non-union. They are going to a small copy shop with a print press that is owned by a father/son or similar who is the one of a kind in a town.
If we change the rules to simply say: Candidates must use Union work if contracting a business of more than 10 employees, we probably solve all of that problem. And we let local democrats inject their money that they raise into local businesses, which helps build some good faith. Shipping donation money away from communities you raised it n to go 'back east' leaves a sour taste to people, even if it saves you a few pennies.
So what are you doing?
I'm preparing for Spring elections, and we're taking on candidates who want to run and win. Yesterday is over, it's November fifth now. By December, I hope to have candidates in line for several city races. The old logic may have been: we don't get involved, they are non-partisan.
Sorry. The rules of the game have changed. Change with them, or find yourself wiped out over and over and over again.