The NY Times has been running a "Man (Woman) on the Street" series with ordinary Iranians for the past few weeks. Even for someone like me who is interested and has followed Iranian events, it contained some remarkable surprises. For instance, today's installment is with a hardliner who states:
One of the positive points about the Islamic Revolution is that the literacy rate, which was only 25 percent before the revolution, has dramatically increased to 99 percent. Now, Iranian people are literate and understanding. They can read and analyze the news, and that is why they believe in their leader. Our people have sacrificed their children for this revolution, and they are either families of martyrs or families of veterans. They do not like the United States. This was why the Islamic Revolution toppled the former regime.
Now, he's kind of over-stating the gains in literacy, which isn't even necessary since the gains are incredible (lots more on that below).
I have been going to the Friday prayers since the first Friday prayer after the revolution. I remember that my father and I jumped on the back of a double-decker bus because we did not have enough money to pay the bus fare. People used to be poor in those days. Now, fortunately, every family has one or two cars.
I'm going to ignore the comment about cars and focus on the things that I think are more important and that government can actually help improve, health care and basic services. But it is important to note that all of us as citizens evaluate our government in terms of the material success it makes possible.
If you go by standard US news coverage on Iran, it would appear that the country is run by crazed religious fanatics who sit around all day plotting to stone adulterers (primarily women), imprison/execute gay people or force them to seek "treatment" and "cures" for homosexuality (but hey I know at least one other country where that last one is somewhat common, yes I'm looking at you Americuh). Somewhat strangely, it seems they think gender re-assignment surgery is an acceptable "solution". Oh yeah, and they shout Death to America every Friday in unison.
The issue of capital punishment and discrimination against homosexuals and women is extremely important, but it isn't everything. Though I want things to change today for everyone, we should remember that this is a very conservative part of the world, even Israel, which is arguably furthest along in its acceptance of gay rights has religious authorities who say "homosexuality is a complete evil" as the former chief rabbi of Israel Ovadai Yosef did. Though arguably Turkey has historically been a better model, same-sex relations have been legal there since 1858. About 100 years earlier than most US states. The Ottoman Empire was apparently a lot more open to gay rights than Victorian Anglo-Saxon societies. As with most things in Turkey, Erdogan's government has been moving the country in a more socially conservative direction.
But what I want to tackle here are very basic measures of health, nutrition, health-care well-being and support, particularly for the most vulnerable among us, children.
Couple of important notes to keep in mind, Iran fought a brutal war started by Iraq, from 1980 till 1988. The war resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths (Obama acknowledged this in a recent interview) within Iran and for Iraqi Kurds. The US supported Saddam's Iraq during that period with modern weapons and provided recon data for chemical weapon attacks (the US Navy shot down an Iranian civilian airliner in Iranian airspace and blew up some Iranian navy ships in Iranian territorial waters, but it was still considered a "proxy war"). Iran was woefully outmatched and suffered very heavy losses in the war. This is important history, but also significant for our discussion here because the war impacted Iran's economic development in the 80s. Gains the Iranian regime has delivered are even more impressive given the impact of the war.
With that in mind, let's dive into the data shall we? The questions we want to consider as we look through the stats are:
- What measurable improvements in well-being and development has the "Iranian revolution" been able to deliver or maintain since it took control of the country in 1979.
- In particular, where does Iran stand when it comes to things like infant mortality, childhood development, literacy and healthcare for children and women.
- How does this compare to other similar sized countries in the region.
It's been a while since I've pored through economic development stats, but at one time I had some fluency in the subject. I'm going to use UNICEF development statistics for Iraq, Iran, Turkeyand the USA. They come from UN, WHO and World Bank datasets and they are of good quality (they are widely used for country level developmental research by academic economists). I've used Turkey as a regional comparable and the US as a well-understood control (at least for DKos purposes). Iraq is in there as another regional comparable, but since we've recently tried to spread freedom in that country recently ("Operation Iraqi Freedom", hell yeah!), it serves yet another purpose. The Iraq data tells us what the Iranian people can look forward to if we try the same trick in Iran.
| Basic Indicators |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Under-5 mortality rank |
70 |
100 |
120 |
150 |
| Under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), 1990 |
53 |
56 |
74 |
11 |
| Under-5 mortality rate (U5MR), 2012 |
34 |
18 |
14 |
7 |
| U5MR by sex 2012, male |
38 |
19 |
16 |
8 |
| U5MR by sex 2012, female |
31 |
17 |
13 |
6 |
| Infant mortality rate (under 1), 1990 |
42 |
44 |
55 |
9 |
| Infant mortality rate (under 1), 2012 |
28 |
15 |
12 |
6 |
| Neonatal mortality rate 2012 |
19 |
11 |
9 |
4 |
| Total population (thousands) 2012 |
32778 |
76424 |
73997 |
317505 |
| Annual no. of births (thousands) 2012 |
1036.9 |
1454 |
1268.2 |
4225.7 |
| Annual no. of under-5 deaths (thousands) 2012 |
35 |
26 |
18 |
29 |
| GNI per capita (US$) 2012 |
5870 |
c |
10830 |
50120 |
| Life expectancy at birth (years) 2012 |
69.2 |
73.7 |
74.9 |
78.8 |
| Total adult literacy rate (%) 2008-2012* |
78.5 |
85 |
94.1 |
– |
| Primary school net enrollment ratio (%) 2008-2011* |
– |
99.9 |
98.9 |
95.7 |
Couple of things stand out here. Iran falls somewhere between Turkey and Iraq on infant mortality, and that is going to be a consistent theme in the data.
But here's the remarkable thing, infant mortality has fallen from 56 per 1,000 to 18 per 1,000. Turkey did even better, but Iran shows amazing improvement. In contrast, India has only managed to go from 126 to 56 (yeah, India's democratically elected governments from both left and right have been awful on development fronts). Iraq has fallen behind in contrast and a lot of that has to do with Operation Iraqi Freedom. Our ill-advised, poorly-planned adventure in Iraq took out so much of Iraq's infrastructure that it is still costing the lives of thousands of Iraqi children. I hope there is a very special section in hell reserved for Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney for their failure to plan for our military occupation of Iraq with diligence and care.
When you look at life-expectancy, you can see that Iran has developed world life expectancy well above 70. And 85% is a pretty good literacy rate for the population. India is at 63%, Saudi Arabia which is wealthier is at 87% (Saudi per capita GDP is over $25,000, Iran's is under $5,000).
What is really fantastic though is the 99.9% primary school enrollment rate. That is virtually universal, and about 4% better than the US. The impact is visible in near-universal literacy among the young.
This is a very important measure which is why I emphasize it. What it tells us that Iranian women, particularly expectant mothers, receive very good nutrition. That is not the case in India where 28% of babies have low birth-weight. These statistics are tough to achieve in a rigid patriarchy or a country with pervasive discrimination against women.
| Demographic Indicators |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Population (thousands) 2012, total |
32778 |
76424 |
73997 |
317505 |
| Population (thousands) 2012, under 18 |
15421 |
21774 |
23098 |
75320.5 |
| Population (thousands) 2012, under 5 |
4823.9 |
7002.6 |
6362.1 |
20623.4 |
| Population annual growth rate (%), 1990-2012 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1 |
| Population annual growth rate (%), 2012-2030 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
| Life expectancy, 1970 |
58.2 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
70.7 |
| Life expectancy, 1990 |
68.3 |
63.4 |
64.3 |
75.2 |
| Life expectancy, 2012 |
69.2 |
73.7 |
74.9 |
78.8 |
| Total fertility rate, 2012 |
4.1 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2 |
| Urbanized population (%), 2012 |
66.4 |
69.2 |
72.5 |
82.6 |
| Average annual growth rate of urban population (%), 1990-2012 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
1.4 |
| Average annual growth rate of urban population (%), 2012-2030 |
2.6 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1 |
Here we're looking at some historical trends. Most important is how life expectancy has changed. Iran achieved Turkey-level improvements in life expectancy, going from 63 to 74, between 1990 and 2012. To do that requires substantial improvements in sanitation, health care and nutrition. And remember, Turkey is a NATO member with a free-trade agreement with the EU and its per capita GDP is more than twice Iran's.
On the subject of GDP see this:
Iraq, Iran, Turkey per capita GDP 1960 - 2014
Iraqi data looks patchy or unadjusted for inflation in some portions of the graph, ignore that (yes, I'm lazy, the graph is from Google since they have
decent visualization on World Bank data and I can't be bothered to scrub it). You can see the Iranian regime made significant gains even though their economy was not really growing much per capita in the 1990s. You can see the enormous impact of the war through 1980-1988 and the impact of the sanctions in the last four years of data.
Taking a wider view, Indian life expectancy only went from 58 to 66 over the same period. Even China with it's insane levels of growth took from 1970 till 2012 to raise life-expectancy from 63 to 75 years (far bigger country though, ergo more inertia).
Whatever the Iranian regime was doing between 1990 and 2012 paid off handsomely in terms of the basic health and longevity of the Iranian people.
| The Rate Of Progress |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Under-5 mortality rank |
70 |
100 |
120 |
150 |
| Under-5 mortality rate, , 1970 |
114 |
226 |
186 |
23 |
| Under-5 mortality rate, , 1990 |
53 |
56 |
74 |
11 |
| Under-5 mortality rate, , 2000 |
45 |
35 |
37 |
8 |
| Under-5 mortality rate, , 2012 |
34 |
18 |
14 |
7 |
| Annual rate of reduction (%) Under-5 mortality rate, 1970-1990 |
3.8 |
6.9 |
4.6 |
3.7 |
| Annual rate of reduction (%) Under-5 mortality rate, 1990-2000 |
1.7 |
4.9 |
6.8 |
2.9 |
| Annual rate of reduction (%) Under-5 mortality rate, 2000-2012 |
2.2 |
5.6 |
8.1 |
1.4 |
| Annual rate of reduction (%) Under-5 mortality rate, 1990-2012 |
2 |
5.3 |
7.5 |
2.1 |
| Reduction since 1990 (%) |
35 |
69 |
81 |
37 |
| Reduction since 2000 (%) |
23 |
49 |
62 |
15 |
| GDP per capita average annual growth rate (%), 1970-1990 |
– |
-2.5 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
| GDP per capita average annual growth rate (%), 1990-2012 |
-1.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
| Total fertility rate, 1970 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
5.6 |
2.3 |
| Total fertility rate, 1990 |
5.9 |
4.8 |
3.1 |
2 |
| Total fertility rate, 2012 |
4.1 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2 |
| Average annual rate of reduction (%) Total fertility rate, 1970-1990 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
3 |
0.6 |
| Average annual rate of reduction (%) Total fertility rate, 1990-2012 |
1.7 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
0 |
You can see that fertility rates have fallen dramatically (this typically happens when more kids survive into adulthood), and overall economic growth (GDP) has been consistently strong since the end of the Iran-Iraq war.
I want to close with education since it is so crucial to everything else.
| Education |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Youth (15-24 years) literacy rate (%) 2008-2012*, male |
84.1 |
98.8 |
99.4 |
– |
| Youth (15-24 years) literacy rate (%) 2008-2012*, female |
80.5 |
98.5 |
97.9 |
– |
| Number per 100 population 2012, mobile phones |
79.4 |
76.9 |
90.8 |
98.2 |
| Number per 100 population 2012, Internet users |
7.1 |
26 |
45.1 |
81 |
| Pre-primary school participation, Gross enrolment ratio (%) 2008 -2012*, male |
– |
40.6 |
26.9 |
67.7 |
| Pre-primary school participation, Gross enrolment ratio (%) 2008 -2012*, female |
– |
44.7 |
25.8 |
70.3 |
| Primary school participation, Gross enrolment ratio (%) 2008-2012*, male |
– |
108.1 |
104.9 |
102 |
| Primary school participation, Gross enrolment ratio (%) 2008-2012*, female |
– |
106.8 |
103.7 |
101.1 |
| Primary school participation, Net attendance ratio (%) 2008-2012*, male |
92.7 |
96.4 |
93.5 |
– |
| Primary school participation, Net attendance ratio (%) 2008-2012*, female |
87 |
96.9 |
91.9 |
– |
| Primary school participation, Survival rate to last primary grade (%) , 2008-2012*, admin. data |
– |
98.1 |
99.2 |
– |
| Primary school participation, Survival rate to last primary grade (%) , 2008-2012*, survey data |
95.5 |
96.7 |
94.5 |
– |
| Secondary school participation, Net enrolment ratio (%) 2008-2012*, male |
– |
82.4 |
81.4 |
88.8 |
| Secondary school participation, Net enrolment ratio (%) 2008-2012*, female |
– |
79.8 |
76.2 |
90.2 |
The Iranian regime is basically knocking it out of the park when it comes to education. Their female literacy rates are phenomenal. Their primary school enrollment and attendance rates are eye-popping (better than the US). Secondary school participation rates are higher than Turkey. When comparing secondary school education levels with developed world economies like the US, we should adjust for the rural nature of Iran.
If I were looking at this data and didn't have the country headings, I would conclude that the Iranian government did an absolutely stellar job at development between 1990 and 2012. They invested in education, health care (just look at those 99% immunization rates below the fold!), sanitation (more data on that below). They made health-care services for pregnant women universal (their numbers are better than Turkey's). They did the same on education for girls.
This is a development economist's wet dream.
I'm not kidding, I'm tearing up at the thought of how many children they've managed to save from an early death. I'm jubilant at the number of women and girls who can participate in society because of universal education.
This tells me that overall the Iranian regime have been good, no very good, for the health and well-being of the Iranian people.
What this should tell us as citizens is that the media caricature of Iran is fatally flawed. The Iranian people have good reason to believe their government is fundamentally good for them. Yes, there are things it can do better, particularly when it comes to minority rights. But overall, it has hit every bogey when it comes to basic health and human services.
What we also know, is that our poorly planned policy of regime change in Iraq caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. Whatever Iranians may think of their regime, they've seen what happened in Iraq and only an utter moron to would think they would want that for their own country. I'm sorry, I forgot the despicable evil bastards who don't care about the suffering and death of thousands of children and advocate war so their buddies could make a killing replenishing our arms depots (yeah, I mean you Mr. Halliburton CEO).
The Iranians have good reason to like their government and we would be utterly foolish to think that our bombs and troops would be greeted as anything other than the tools of a great Satan bent on destroying the peace and prosperity of Iran to serve it's own ends. And they would be right.
More details, mostly because I spent so much time formatting them for DKos...
| Health |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Use of improved drinking water sources (%) 2011, total |
84.9 |
95.3 |
99.7 |
98.8 |
| Use of improved drinking water sources (%) 2011, urban |
94 |
97.5 |
100 |
99.8 |
| Use of improved drinking water sources (%) 2011, rural |
66.9 |
90.3 |
99.1 |
94 |
| Use of improved sanitation facilities (%) 2011, total |
83.9 |
99.6 |
91 |
99.6 |
| Use of improved sanitation facilities (%) 2011, urban |
86 |
100 |
97.2 |
99.8 |
| Use of improved sanitation facilities (%) 2011, rural |
79.8 |
98.7 |
75.5 |
98.6 |
| Routine EPI vaccines financed by government (%) 2012 |
– |
100 |
– |
– |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, BCG |
90 |
99 |
96 |
– |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, DPT1 |
87 |
99 |
98 |
98 |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, DPT3 |
69 |
99 |
97 |
95 |
Immunization
coverage (%) 2012, polio3 |
70 |
99 |
97 |
93 |
Immunization
coverage (%) 2012, MCV |
69 |
98 |
98 |
92 |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, HepB3 |
77 |
98 |
96 |
92 |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, Hib3 |
46 |
– |
97 |
90 |
| Immunization coverage (%) 2012, Newborns protected against tetanus |
85 |
95 |
90 |
– |
| Economic Indicators |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| GNI per capita 2012, US$ |
5870 |
c |
10830 |
50120 |
| GNI per capita 2012, PPP US$ |
4300 |
– |
17500 |
50610 |
| GDP per capita average annual growth rate (%), 1970-1990 |
– |
-2.5 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
| GDP per capita average annual growth rate (%), 1990-2012 |
-1.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.6 |
| Average annual rate of inflation (%) 1990-2012 |
18.2 |
21.9 |
41 |
2.2 |
| Population below international poverty line of US$1.25 per day (%) 2007-2011* |
2.8 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
– |
| Public spending as a % of GDP (2007-2011*) allocated to: health |
6.7 |
2.3 |
5 |
8.4 |
| Public spending as a % of GDP (2008-2010*) allocated to: education |
– |
4.8 |
– |
5.4 |
| Public spending as a % of GDP (2008-2010*) allocated to: military |
5.1 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
4.8 |
| ODA inflow in millions US$ 2010 |
1904.1 |
101.7 |
3193 |
– |
| ODA inflow as a % of recipient GNI 2010 |
1.1 |
– |
0.4 |
– |
| Debt service as a % of exports of goods and services 2010 |
– |
– |
26.8 |
– |
| Share of household income (%, 2007-2011*), poorest 40% |
22 |
17 |
17 |
16 |
| Share of household income (%, 2007-2011*), richest 20% |
40 |
45 |
46 |
46 |
| Women |
Iraq |
Iran |
Turkey |
USA |
| Life expectancy: females as a % of males 2012 |
111.1 |
105.4 |
109.6 |
106.4 |
| Adult literacy rate: females as a % of males 2008-2012* |
82.8 |
90.3 |
92.2 |
– |
| Enrolment ratios: females as a % of males 2008-2012*, Primary GER |
– |
98.8 |
98.8 |
99.1 |
| Enrolment ratios: females as a % of males 2008-2012*, Secondary GER |
– |
95.9 |
91.9 |
101 |
| Survival rate to the last grade of primary: females as a % of males 2008-2012* |
– |
99.5 |
101.5 |
– |
| Contraceptive prevalence (%) 2008-2012* |
52.5 |
77.4 |
73 |
78.6 |
| Antenatal care (%) 2008-2012*, At least one visit |
77.7 |
96.9 |
92 |
– |
| Antenatal care (%) 2008-2012*, At least four visits |
49.6 |
94.3 |
73.7 |
– |
| Delivery care (%) 2008-2012*, Skilled attendant at birth |
90.9 |
96.4 |
91.3 |
– |
| Delivery care (%) 2008-2012*, Institutional delivery |
76.6 |
95.3 |
89.7 |
– |
| Delivery care (%) 2008-2012*, C-section |
22.2 |
45.6 |
36.7 |
31.1 |
| Maternal mortality ratio , 2008-2012*, Reported |
84 |
24.6 |
28.5 |
12.7 |
| Maternal mortality ratio , 2010, Adjusted |
63 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
| Maternal mortality ratio , 2010, Lifetime risk of maternal death (1 in:) |
310 |
2400 |
2200 |
2400 |
