I just finished George Marshall's book Don’t Even Think about It: Why Our Brains Are Wired to Ignore Climate Change. The timing could not be more ironic for I also read this diary by FishOutofWater today: Texas & Alaska Floods: El Nino & Hot Oceans Start a Year of Hellish Weather. It Will Get Worse. I can't help myself from being the scientist I have been all my life. The evolutionary experiment can only be run once so we talking a brand of science very different from the artificial world of laboratories and controlled experiments.
If you have not already guessed I have already answered my question to my own satisfaction. Jim Coffman and I have written our own book about it.
The first link above ends with this statement:
It is clear now that stopping climate change is impossible: what is still worth fighting for is some control over how bad it will get. Neither Klein nor Marshall can convincingly tell us how we should get from where we are to where we need to be in the time available; but then, neither can anyone else. Reading these books back to back, I’m inclined to side with Daniel Kahneman, whom Marshall spoke to in a noisily oblivious New York café. Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for his work on the psychology of human decision-making, which may be why he’s so gloomy. ‘This is not what you might want to hear,’ he says, but ‘no amount of psychological awareness will overcome people’s reluctance to lower their standard of living. So that’s my bottom line: there is not much hope. I’m thoroughly pessimistic. I’m sorry.
After all the words are written and read, Kahneman sort of nails it doesn't he? Read on below for more.
When Darwin thought about evolution he had some key ideas that have survived over all these years. He dealt with genetic variation and not with the workings of the minds that result from the underlying genetics. His bottom line was that either a species was able to adapt or it became extinct. Here are some of his words:
Extinctions of species have occurred gradually and continuously throughout the history of life.
... species and groups of species gradually disappear, one after another, first from one spot, then from another, and finally from the world.
... the complete extinction of the species of a group is generally a slower process than their production: if the appearance and disappearance be represented ... by a vertical line of varying thickness the line is found to taper more gradually at its upper end, which marks the progress of extermination....
. It has always been clear to me as a biologist that a species has already become extinct long before its last member dies. Extinction involves "tipping points".
From this perspective it may be that our species is already extinct. But how is this possible? We have evolved these magnificent brains and look what we can do with them.
It took some time to get going but "clean energy" seems to be beginning to sweep the planet. We are struggling with ways of pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. We are studying ways to cope with water shortage, food shortage, extreme temperatures and weather conditions. Even Texas has stopped its secession movement to get help from the devastation of extreme weather.
Meanwhile as you read this the carbon dioxide levels are rising. If we reach certain tipping points methane will be belching into the atmosphere. The clowns in congress are demonstrating the failure of our political system.
The timing is not favorable for this "brilliant" species. The world it has created is a joke.
Each time we discuss these matters there is a group who comment that we can survive. Their evidence is absent but their belief is strong. I submit that it is the way belief wins over evidence that tells all about the failure of the human mind.
Some will point their finger at religion, especially at the fundamentalists. I wish it were that simple. Marshall does a good job of putting the finger pointing into perspective and I'll let you read what he has to say.
Every time I write about these matters some will comment about what they are doing to change their personal footprint. This is good. The problem is that in my almost eighty years the idea that we needed to change our footprint came up long ago and little happened. One is reminded of the old saw about closing the barn door too late.
Marshall points out that as bleak as the reality of our situation is we still need to act. My question is whether he is being optimistic beyond the thrust of his own analysis?
We have to try and the task is enormous. The odds are very great that evolution has already spoken and the outcome is set. The details may be manipulated but the system grinds on. You really don't need a weatherman to tell you which way the wind is blowing.
