As the Republicans haltingly, painfully come to grips with the phenomenon of Donald Trump, one of the last reassuring facts is that while Trump's rabid core of supporters might be propelling him to first place, he's still only earning the backing of less than third of the primary electorate—around 31 percent nationally,
according to the polling averages. The vast majority of GOP voters, this line of thinking goes, do
not support The Donald, so in the end, some sort of anti-Trump standard-bearer has to emerge to rescue the party and win the nomination.
But is that really true? In a new nationwide survey of the Republican primary, Public Policy Polling pitted Trump in several one-on-one, head-to-head matchups with a few other notable contenders for the GOP crown. The results should make the establishment very queasy:
Trump: 59
Bush: 34
Trump: 53
Walker: 39
Trump: 50
Rubio: 42
Trump: 48
Fiorina: 41
Trump: 43
Carson: 49
Oof-da! Trump leads four of his five opponents: the "surging" Carly Fiorina, the dwindling Scott Walker, the stumbling Jeb Bush (by 25 points!), and the biding-his-time Marco Rubio. Only Ben Carson, the best-liked candidate in the field (with a 68-14 favorability rating), tops Trump. But Trump's own popularity has only grown: A month ago, prior to the first debate, 48 percent of primary voters had a positive view of Trump, while 39 percent had a negative opinion. Now he's shot up to 56-30, meaning, of course, that a majority of Republican voters like the guy.
So if the "anybody but Trump" forces are to be successful, they'll have to persuade folks who are already inclined to favor Trump to change their minds. It could easily happen—after all, if people can switch from disliking Trump to liking him, they can switch right back. But for now, he's keeping the haters at bay, and Republican power-brokers desperate to avoid a Donald disaster have to be feeling most distressed.