Leading Off:
• WY-AL: Republican Rep. Cynthia Lummis unexpectedly announced her retirement on Thursday (her husband's death last year may have played a role in her decision), and it didn't take long for state Rep. Tim Stubson to announce his campaign. Stubson is the third-ranking Republican in the state House, so he may have some useful connections.
Stubson is very unlikely to be the only credible Republican campaigning for this safely red seat though. Former Bush administration official and frequent cable news presence Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Wyoming congressman and ex-Vice President Dick Cheney, quickly said she was "seriously considering running and will make a final decision in the next couple of weeks." Unnamed sources close to Cheney tell CNN that she's leaning towards getting in, but hasn't decided.
If Cheney runs, this will be her second campaign in the Cowboy State in as many cycles. In 2013, Cheney announced that she would oppose Sen. Mike Enzi in the GOP primary, and it did not go well at all. Enzi was popular with fellow Republicans, and Cheney struggled to come up with a good reason for voters to fire him. Cheney had only moved to Wyoming from Northern Virginia in 2012, and she didn't do a particularly good job dispelling the idea that she was a carpetbagger. It didn't help that Cheney had a terrible relationship with the state's newspapers. While picking fights with the media usually works in GOP primary campaigns, it's not such a great strategy in a place where newspapers are still strong and have loyal conservative readers.
Cheney also got into an ugly feud with her openly gay sister after the candidate publicly claimed she opposed marriage equality in the face of right-wing attacks. Despite her family connections, Cheney wasn't exactly an incredible fundraiser either (in fact, she lied about how much money she brought in), and she burned through most of her limited cash quickly. By early January the writing was on the wall, and she dropped out; Enzi went on to win re-election without breaking a sweat.
If Cheney runs for the House, we'll see if she's able to put the ghosts of the last campaign behind her. The good news for her is that this time, she won't be going up against a popular incumbent that few people want to fire. She'll also have lived in Wyoming a bit longer, so the carpetbagging charge may matter less. But Cheney made a lot of enemies last time, and influential Republicans may not be ready to give her a second chance.
Roll Call's Eli Yokley also gives us the names of some other Republicans who could get in. They include state House Majority Leader Rosie Berger; state Treasurer Mark Gordon; physician Taylor Haynes, who lost the 2014 gubernatorial primary to incumbent Matt Mead 55-32; ex-state Auditor Rita Meyer, who lost the 2010 open seat primary to Mead 29-28; and state Secretary of State Ed Murray.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: The Behavior Research Center takes a look at both the primary and general election here. They give Sen. John McCain a 41-11 lead over primary rival state Sen. Kelli Ward, and a 37-31 edge against Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. The Behavior Research Center doesn't release numbers very often, and we can't say we've been impressed by what we've seen from them. In early October of 2012, they gave Obama a 42-40 lead over Romney; Romney carried the Grand Canyon State 53-44 weeks later.
• IL-Sen: Rep. Danny Davis has announced that he will back former Chicago Urban League head Andrea Zopp, who is the Democratic primary underdog against Rep. Tammy Duckworth. While Davis is entrenched in his Chicago House seat, his influence in other elections seems pretty limited. Davis briefly ran for mayor in 2011 but dropped out to support Carol Moseley Braun, who ended up taking a distant fourth place. Davis also endorsed Chuy Garcia during his unsuccessful bid against Mayor Rahm Emanuel earlier this year.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: After spending most of the race with relatively little money, Democrat John Bel Edwards' fundraising has really taken off like a rocket. Since the Oct. 24 primary, Edwards has outraised Republican David Vitter $4.5 million to $2.6 million. Edwards also secured a potentially useful endorsement from the Louisiana State Troopers Association; the Louisiana Sheriffs' Association has already backed him.
Edwards is out with a new spot as well. This one features him with fellow veterans, and Edwards tells the viewer that no one asked them about their party affiliations when they enlisted, "because we don't win wars by dividing a military against itself." Edwards then pledges he'll lead by those same principles as governor.
House:
• CA-07: The GOP has been looking for a credible candidate to face Democratic Rep. Ami Bera in this swing seat, and it looks like they have him. The Sacramento Bee reports that Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones will kick off his campaign on Monday. The entire 7th Congressional District is contained within Sacramento County, which is the same turf Jones currently represents as sheriff, so he’d start off with some measure of name recognition. Ex-Rep. and 2014 nominee Doug Ose, as well as Jones' mentor and predecessor, John McGinness, had both expressed interest in running, but GOP operatives recently told the National Journal that it's unlikely that there would be a contested GOP race here.
Neither side has much room for error in this contest, but Bera can't count on unified Democratic support. Over the summer, the AFL-CIO ran ads against Bera over his full-throttled support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and tensions have not dissipated since then. The National Journal's Kimberly Railey spoke to several local unions and they told her that they're quite willing to sit out the general election next year. Maybe they're bluffing or they'll change their mind in the heat of the campaign, but Bera can't afford for influential unions to abandon him.
• CA-20: Rep. Sam Farr announced his retirement on Thursday and unsurprisingly, a number of Democrats are thinking about running for this safely blue central coast seat.
Monterey County Deputy District Attorney Jimmy Panetta, the son of former Rep. and ex-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, has been talking about running here for a while, and he acknowledged that he considering. But Panetta is unlikely to have the field to himself if he gets in. Carmel Mayor Jason Burnett is also talking about running. While Carmel is a small town (population 3,700), Burnett is a member of the board of trustees for the David & Lucile Packard Foundation, a very well-funded non-profit, so he's definitely connected.
Termed-out Assemblymember Luis Alejo, who represents about 54 percent of the 20th District and chairs the Latino Legislative Caucus, also says he'll consider. A little more than half of this seat's residents are Hispanic, so a credible Hispanic candidate could go far here. State Sen. Bill Monning, who represents about 60 percent of this district, also isn't ruling anything out. However, Monning would need to forgo re-election if he runs for Congress.
A number of other local Democrats could run here. State Secretary for Natural Resources John Laird, a former assemblymember, says he's not ruling it out. However, Laird says, in the words of KSBW, that he "looks forward to serving Californians at the state level," so it doesn't sound like he's very enthusiastic about getting in. (Disclosure: Jeff Singer interned on Laird's 2010 state Senate campaign.)
Other possible candidates include Assemblymember Mark Stone; state Secretary of the Business, Consumer Services and Housing Anna Caballero, a former assemblymember; Santa Cruz City Councilor Pamela Comstock; and Monterey County supervisor Jane Parker. Obama won this seat 71-26, so it's possible that two strong Democrats could advance past the June top-two primary and face off in the general election.
• IA-03: It's been a while since ex-Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat, has said anything about his 2016 plans. But Culver recently told the blog Bleeding Heartland that yes, he is still considering challenging Republican freshman David Young in this swing seat. Aside from noting that he'd need to start gathering signatures before the March 18 filing deadline, Culver did not say when he expects to decide. (At the beginning of the year, Culver flirted with running in the 1st District instead, but he seems to have given up on that idea.)
Veteran and 2014 4th District nominee Jim Mowrer is running, and he has some establishment backing, though not all Democratic insiders seem sold on him. Rich guy Mike Sherzan is also interested. The DCCC was excited about him in 2013, but Sherzan quickly dropped out citing health reasons, and it's unclear how many powerful Democrats want to give him a second chance. Culver would start out with much more name recognition than any of his potential primary foes, but labor groups are still angry about some of his actions during his governorship.
• IL-01: Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush is occasionally the subject of retirement rumors, and the Chicago Sun-Times' Sneed reported last week that Ald. Howard Brookins is circulating petitions to run for this seat, likely so he can hit the ground running if Rush bails. However, Rush quickly told Lynn Sweet that he would run again. Brookins also circulated petitions in 2013, but he quickly backed off after Rush made it clear he was seeking another term. The Nov. 30 filing deadline is coming up very quickly for this safely blue Chicago seat, so we'll know very quickly if Brookins is willing to actually challenge Rush for renomination.
• NY-19: Despite mulling a bid here since February, GOP Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin has announced that he will not run for this open upstate swing seat. McLaughlin's decision isn't going to break a lot of hearts at NRCC HQ: McLaughlin, who once compared Gov. Andrew Cuomo to Hitler, has a very shoot-from-the-hip style that would not have played well in a general election.
Four notable Republicans are running here: businessman Bob Bishop; ex-Assembly Minority Leader John Faso; businessman Andrew Heaney; and Assemblyman Pete Lopez. Democrats don't have a viable candidate here yet, though they're hoping that Ulster County Executive Mike Hein will run now that he's won re-election.
• TX-15: On Friday, Democratic Rep. Ruben Hinojosa confirmed that he would not seek re-election. Obama won this Rio Grande Valley seat 57-42, and it should be safe for Team Blue in a presidential year. There are a number of local Democrats who could run here but potential candidates need to think fast: The candidate filing deadline is Dec. 14.
• TX-19: Lubbock County GOP chair Carl Tepper initially expressed interest in running for this safely red seat, but he just announced that he won't go for it. Several Republicans are campaigning for this open seat: Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson undoubtedly starts out with the most name recognition, but it's too early to say he's the clear frontrunner. The filing deadline for the March 1 primary is Dec. 14, so things will take shape here soon.
Legislative:
• MS State House: A simple flip of a coin could determine if Republicans pick up the last seat they need to secure the supermajority that would allow them to pass tax policies on their own. County election administrators have certified that the battle between Democratic state Rep. Bo Eaton and Republican Mark Tullos has ended in a tie.
Under Mississippi law, a tie "shall be determined by lot," and past deadlocks have been resolved through coin tosses or by drawing straws. But Tullos says his camp is still looking at his options, adding that "I'm not going to agree to a coin flip. I don't want to bet my future on the flip of a coin." In any case, even if Eaton comes out ahead, the GOP may get their supermajority soon enough. One Democrat switched parties days after being re-elected Nov. 3, and it would only take one more to get that last seat.
Other Races:
• LA-LG, AG: Market Research Insight has released the downballot portions of the recent poll that gave Democrat John Bel Edwards a 52-38 lead over David Vitter in the gubernatorial race. In the lieutenant governor's contest, they give Democrat Kip Holden a 54-35 lead over Republican Billy Nungesser. Nungesser has none of Vitter's considerable baggage, so it seems very hard to believe that he'd run behind him. In the all-GOP attorney general contest, they have incumbent Buddy Caldwell leading tea partier Jeff Landry 43-35. The election is Nov. 21, so we won't need to wait very long to see if MRI is right.
Grab Bag:
• VA Redistricting: A while back, Republicans appealed a federal court ruling that found Virginia's congressional map improperly packed too many black voters into the 3rd Congressional District, and on Friday, the Supreme Court said it would conduct a hearing on the matter. In the vast majority of cases, the Supreme Court is free to decide whether or not to grant an appeal (and more often than not, when it does, it's a signal that the justices plan to overturn a lower court).
But for cases brought under the Voting Rights Act and heard by a three-judge panel at the trial-court level (as this one was), the court is actually required to consider any appeals, though it doesn't necessarily have to grant a hearing. Therefore, it's harder to draw any conclusions about the court's intentions here, especially since it might punt this case on procedural grounds. No date for the hearing has been set yet, and there's no timetable for a decision, but Virginia's congressional filing deadline is March 31, so if this litigation is not resolved by that time, the state's primary could get pushed forward.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.
