A couple of times recently in discussions regarding Independent voters, it seems that a number of people say that they hardly even count. There are so few of them. They are mostly conservatives. They certainly won’t effect the Democratic race in any meaningful way.
I’d like to post a link to a couple of sources which beg to differ. One is a Gallup Poll taken in 2014. It shows that 43% of American voters are now Independents compared to about 30% of Americans who are Democrats and about 26% who claim to be Republicans. Should the trend continue at the rate it seems to be going at, in about another 15 percentage points or so they will be larger than the two major parties combined.
In this poll the spread is well beyond any margin of error to suggest that for every Democrat or Republican nearly two other voters don’t belong to a major party or any party at all. This seems to me to be perhaps a bit of a turning point whereupon if the Democratic party wants to plant a flag in that camp and have many of these people decide to join this party, the time is nearly overdue. Of course, our policy positions and decisions need to become better defined and different from what they are to attract any possible chunk of those voters. A group which is accelerating in numbers.
Another similar Pew Poll shows much the same percentage but within a certain demographic. That of millennials. Fully half of them identify as Independents with 27% as Democrats and 17% as Republicans. Often when younger voters are successful in their early years of voting, party loyalty often tends to become established. Sometimes for life, but perhaps not so much in such a partisan environment over time. Here’s a deeper look from Pew with more data among age groups. Showing their numbers going up across the board. Only among seniors is it not above both parties, (guess which one is on top if you haven’t looked). We continue losing seniors from the party. But I believe their earned benefits of Social Security and Medicare, if we do everything to expand them beyond what they are now. Expanding Medicare could be more credible if we have some kind of single payer plan.
Now one might argue that Independents may not always be the most reliable voters. To some extent this might be true. And there is evidence that few of them are moderates, even if they self-identify as such more extensive polling shows they are usually lined up mostly with a party. The numbers of them in the middle, more likely swing on a moderate position for either candidate, have been tracking smaller and smaller all the time. They still exist, and could be a factor in close races. But overall this is less and less the case where they are attracted to the most middle of the road candidates. Only in very close races might swing vote still make a difference.
Yet even considering if both of these are true, a greater number of independents swing harder to the right or the left than the parties. Thus it is possible that if a very strong position is taken by either party, they are more likely to attract those voters. Also voters who don’t want to associate with either of the two major parties and yet still line up ideologically with one of them overall, are also a significant number. Perhaps this doubles the self-identified ‘swing vote’. Again though, more likely to be skeptical and more likely to sit an election out unless they have a strong motivator. Such as if they see wide party support on issues that concern them.
If a party has a potential candidate who might be Independent friendly, inspirational to their points of view, they might motivate that person more the stronger their party support. A large part of swaying the Independent vote appears to be to get them to the polls, in larger numbers, in the first place. Independents might be more likely to sit out elections. Or vote for members of other parties. Another consideration is that they are less likely to vote the entire party ticket, perhaps preferring the liberal nominee for President but maybe being open to vote Republican for their Representative or Senator on a case by case basis. Or governor. They are much more likely to have a general ideological position as most of us do, although some might also be split such as being strongly pro-life but also strongly in favor of gun control. Whereupon every election might force them to compromise on one major issue over another.
But I argue that if they believe that they have a dog in the race who could have a great deal of influence on either party as its President, they could be much more fired up and ready to vote if they believe that candidate has a chance. They might also be more willing to vote down ticket nationally and locally for that party to strengthen their favored candidates hand. This is on track to become a more important factor than ever for success for Democrats in the general election against Republicans. If not this election, soon. This poll shows them gaining about 6% in from 2010 to 2014. Have they grown another 2% by then, to 3% by next year at this pace?
Another point: everything is mostly stopped in DC because of the corruption of money in Washington. This is part of why there are so many Independents. Everyone is sick of it, and it’s low hanging fruit across the political spectrum other than for the will of the people to insist on campaign reform. Anyone who is willing to change it, and has some credible plans should be able to tap into that as long as there is support among the rank and file voters first. It’s possible that candidate could even draw some Independents on that one point whom we can’t usually count on for a vote.
Will the Republican party get its share of Independents voting for them? I suppose it’s possible that Trump could become the candidate and if so, then yes and that could be their biggest bump. But I believe that the party leadership and much of their rank and file will not allow that to happen. At this moment he might have hit a ceiling though that remains to be seen. I myself believe it will likely be an established Republican like Rubio, perhaps Cruz though less likely. In either case they might also draw a lot of those Indies as well. As Tea Partiers they too are seen as outsiders on the inside.
With Bush apparently marginalized and other establishment Republicans like Christie and Graham unlikely to win the nomination, there is a good chance that Republicans might be positioned to tap into their pool of Independents in 2016 already. On the other hand there is even more dissatisfaction among conservatives in general with the Republican party than we have with liberals on the Democratic side. Should the GOP be able to continue with business as usual and somehow choose the candidate of the lowest common denominator as they have been doing they could discourage much of their party. And those to the right of it. Who knows with unlimited spending who they’ll wind up with? Who can tell? And if we have a stronger than usual showing in the primaries for Democrats, by moving away from the middle, conservative Independents might be more likely to sit it out if the Republican response is not equal to that.
It has been true that when Democrats come out to vote in big numbers, we win. Yet conservative Independents could be more of an equalizer for the right. Or if we choose a course appealing to the growing numbers of outsiders, we might grow our chances to win. Otherwise we may ‘encourage’ them to not give us their vote. We do know at least anecdotally that some are already beginning to register as Democrats to vote in the primaries. In states where they need to register with one of the major parties to vote for a candidate, that could give us an idea where this is heading for 2016. But I’ve haven’t had luck finding sources who are tracking those new registrations. We’ll know soon enough before long. But those large numbers of people could be in play up through the primaries.
If Democratic values and policy positions start taking a sharp left turn by Democratic voters. Satisfying most of these liberal non-affiliated voters could get us some big wins in the Senate and a wave could start undoing the Republican gerrymandering which has been hog-tying us in congressional, state, and local races. An additional 5% or more of voters, consistently, might possibly start reducing the trend on our side of the aisle away from Independence. Perhaps in the larger numbers out there.
It’s up to us to convince the party leadership and bring them on board as much as we can as activists. Data in self identification suggests the more forcefully we hold to traditional values and campaign reform, the more many of them are likely they are to support the Democratic party. Should our side prevail with these sometimes not-so-likely-voters, especially in the primaries, we might have the makings of a wave election.
And yet 2016 may turn into a tight race no matter who are the nominees. And ignoring a chance to acquire Independents to at least support our side in greater numbers and perhaps greater regularity might be the crucial piece towards winning or losing in 2016 and beyond.
