Over at Huffpo, Rob Hager, has one of the more interesting analysis of the 2016 presidential primary to date. I encourage reading it in its entirety as it doesn’t dodge the reality of where we find ourselves as democrats. His analysis shows that losing to the republican 'clown car' is quite possible unless we are able to face the realistic 'electability' of our primary candidates.
This article looks at polling data from the point of view of an Independent plurality which favors Bernie Sanders by 36% over Clinton, making him in turn a likely winner against any Republican, while leaving Clinton only a toss-up chance in November. It is risky for a party that shares only 30% of the electorate to ignore the decisive role that Independents play in choosing Presidents. The Democratic Party's own shrinking base gives it features of a third party in need of coalition with the larger "party" of Independents that Bernie Sanders brings to the table.
Hager’s piece looks at the numbers, and numbers don’t lie.
The polls' most optimistic message can be summarized in the mathematics of the Democratic primary. With 30 percent of the electorate expected to vote 2:1 for Clinton, Democrats provide Sanders half the votes he needs to win the primary. But since he leads Clinton by 36% among Independents, who are 43% of the electorate, he can gain another 14% if his Independent supporters will only deign to contaminate themselves by participating in the primary of the Democrats they otherwise disdain. This would deliver Sanders a 24-20% victory over Clinton in the primary. If he wins the primary, again with the support of Independents, Sanders is a slam dunk to win the general election against any Republican. This would change the Democratic Party as we know it to be, a network for corruption.
With only 30 per cent of the electorate, Democrats would be foolhardy to think that their chances are strong if they nominate a candidate who has massive unfavoribilities with both independents and republicans.
The Q-Poll findings: "Sanders does just as well [as Clinton against Rubio], or even better, against [the other] top Republicans [Trump, Carson,and Cruz]." Against each of the latter three, Sanders' winning margin exceeds Clinton's by an additional 2%, 3% and 5% respectively, compared to a survey margin of error of +/- 2.6%.
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Sanders' additional margin of safety places him beyond the margin of polling error around which Clinton's fluctuating numbers for her Republican match-ups are more commonly found. Sanders' numbers also seem "almost like a rout" compared to a toss-up for Clinton.
There is no doubt that Sanders holds the enthusiasm factor for the Democrats. Choosing Clinton could very well depress the vote just when the Democrats so desperately need to build their base.
Hager goes into the reasons why Independents are rapidly growing their numbers while the traditional parties are rapidly becoming irrelevant. I strongly encourage reading his entire article.