This week, the U.S. Census Bureau released new annual population estimates for the year between July 1, 2014 and July 1, 2015, and there are plenty of notable details. But the most important takeaway is the implications for the next round of congressional reapportionment that will follow the 2020 census. And using these new population totals, Election Data Services has updated their projections as to which states will gain and lose seats in the House:
State
|
Current
|
Projected
|
Gain/Loss
|
Texas
|
36
|
39
|
+3
|
Florida
|
27
|
29
|
+2
|
Arizona
|
9
|
10
|
+1
|
Colorado
|
7
|
8
|
+1
|
North Carolina
|
13
|
14
|
+1
|
Oregon
|
5
|
6
|
+1
|
Alabama
|
7
|
6
|
-1
|
Illinois
|
18
|
17
|
-1
|
Michigan
|
14
|
13
|
-1
|
Minnesota
|
8
|
7
|
-1
|
New York
|
27
|
26
|
-1
|
Ohio
|
16
|
15
|
-1
|
Pennsylvania
|
18
|
17
|
-1
|
Rhode Island
|
2
|
1
|
-1
|
West Virginia
|
3
|
2
|
-1
|
There are only minor changes from EDS's projections last year, when the firm predicted (albeit with less confidence) that California and Virginia would both gain seats. This time, interestingly, EDS says that whether you look at the longer-term from 2010 to 2015, or whether you use a shorter-term trend such as from 2013 to 2015 or just 2014 to 2015, all of their projections now come out the same way—something that wasn't true a year ago.
Incidentally, if these forecasts hold, the net effect on the Electoral College would be quite small: States that Barack Obama carried in 2012 would lose three electoral votes, while states he lost would gain three. However, two major swing states would see their fortunes continue to diverge, with Ohio losing yet another electoral vote and Florida gaining two.
EDS's 2014 estimates were also similar to a study from an outfit affiliated with the University of North Carolina called Carolina Demography, which David Beard explored in-depth in an earlier post. Carolina Demography has not yet updated its analysis to incorporate the new Census data, but their previous findings saw Texas only gaining two rather than three seats, with Alabama holding steady instead of losing a seat.
The bigger question is now that we're halfway to the next Census, just how accurate are these projections likely to be? Digging back into EDS's archives, we can compare their mid-point predictions from 2005 to the actual reapportionment that took place in 2010:
State
|
2005
|
2010
|
Difference
|
Arizona
|
+1
|
+1
|
0
|
Florida
|
+1
|
+2
|
+1
|
Georgia
|
|
+1
|
+1
|
Illinois
|
|
-1
|
-1
|
Iowa
|
-1
|
-1
|
0
|
Louisiana
|
|
-1
|
-1
|
Massachusetts
|
-1
|
-1
|
0
|
Michigan
|
|
-1
|
-1
|
Missouri
|
|
-1
|
-1
|
Nevada
|
+1
|
+1
|
0
|
New Jersey
|
|
-1
|
-1
|
New York
|
-1
|
-2
|
-1
|
Ohio
|
-1
|
-2
|
-1
|
Pennsylvania
|
-1
|
-1
|
0
|
South Carolina
|
|
+1
|
+1
|
Texas
|
+1
|
+4
|
+3
|
Utah
|
+1
|
+1
|
0
|
Washington
|
|
+1
|
+1
|
Not so great, but using prior growth to predict future growth is always going to be a challenge. Among other things, there's simply no way to anticipate events like Hurricane Katrina or the Great Recession, which can dramatically alter population trends in unexpected ways. At the same time, though, EDS's projections were all correct in identifying states that would see changes to the size of their congressional delegations. So even with the next Census half a decade away, we can still learn useful things about where reapportionment is likely to wind up.