It’s been two weeks, so let’s do one more of these before we wrap up 2015. The trendlines:
|
12/15 |
12/1 |
11/17 |
11/3 |
10/20 |
9/29 |
9/15 |
9/1 |
8/19 |
8/5 |
7/21 |
7/9 |
6/23 |
6/9 |
SANDERS |
63 |
60 |
57 |
65 |
53 |
62 |
62 |
58 |
58 |
58 |
57 |
67 |
63 |
69 |
CLINTON |
35 |
38 |
41 |
32 |
41 |
29 |
29 |
34 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
29 |
31 |
24 |
OTHER |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
? |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
N=
(1,000S)
|
9 |
9 |
11.5 |
12.3 |
8 |
7.8 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
8.1 |
7.1 |
7.4 |
8 |
14.2
|
At 9,000 votes, I don’t see much evidence of a major freeping effort. Hillary Clinton’s early Fall gains in our polling (despite those infamous 11/3 and 11/7 freeping efforts) seem to have waned. Sanders has made major gains around these parts. What that means is that he’s more strongly consolidating the activist left (predominantly white, male, and highly educated), while at the same time making little inroads outside it (still stuck at his 30 percent national demographic ceiling, or 29.9 percent today, to be exact).
Sanders’ problem is our problem at Daily Kos as well—how do we all bust out of that box so that we can better represent the entire Democratic coalition? So yeah, yelling about how everyone should support Sanders in these comment threads will be as useful, helpful and productive as me claiming that Daily Kos speaks for the entire base. We’re working on it, but as of now, this site doesn’t reach that broader 70 percent of that base. So if you want Bernie Sanders to be genuinely viable, he has to bust through his demographic ceiling, and that ain’t gonna happen around here.
Or put another way, the number of Sanders supporters who know about Daily Kos is disproportionately higher than the number of Clinton supporters who do. Long term, that’s a problem for all of us, particularly if we want someone with Sanders’ politics in the White House someday. And I’d venture a guess that the bulk of Clinton supporters on the site wouldn’t have a problem with that goal, either.
In any case, this is the last you’ll hear from me this year, so have a great New Year! Rest up, because we’re going to have a gangbuster 2016. See you on the flip side!
p.s. No, I’m not adding Martin O’Malley to the poll. For one, this allows for cleaner trendlines, and two, fuck him for wasting people’s time on the debates when we should be hearing more from the two candidates people actually support. You know how many votes “Other” got last poll? That would be 92 out of over 9,000 cast.