This is a simple argument. We are half way through the Democratic primary with 2018 delegates awarded. As Bernie’s campaign has been saying all along, the races so far have been in Hillary’s favor. The ones coming up are more favorable for Bernie. If we can make them favorable enough, Bernie wins.
Hillary has won roughly 58% of the delegates, with roughly 58% of all votes cast thus far. If the race averages 51%-49% in Bernie’s favor, and we know the worst performing regions are behind us, then he should win 60% of the vote from here on out, and 60% of the delegates. That will net a majority of pledged delegates, and depending on turnout, a majority of the popular vote as well.
Yes, this analysis glosses-over a number of things:
-
Turnout: people don’t show up to vote
-
Closed primaries: Not everyone polled is a registered Democrat
- Limited media focus and no more debates
-
Time: Primaries are stretched out “average poll” doesn’t mean much.
But 1 and 2 can be changed. We can get people to vote and we can get people registered as Democrats (in most states). IF we phone-bank and GOTV.
Here are the delegate and vote totals Bernie needs to hit:
|
Pre March 15 |
Post March 15 |
TOTAL |
Hillary |
1171 |
852 |
2023 |
Bernie |
847 |
1181 |
2028 |
HILLARY |
8,668,136 |
7,742,055 |
16,410,191 |
BERNIE |
6,131,951 |
10,566,050 |
16,698,001
|
It’s the second half and the field is tilted in our direction. Let’s make Bernie the comeback kid of 2016.
Here is a detailed breakdown by state for those left to go, using the 538 demographic target as a starting point:
STATE |
DELEGATES |
TYPE |
538 TARGET |
NEW TARGET |
Votes NEEDED |
Turnout ‘o8 |
AZ |
75 |
Closed Primary |
41 |
46 |
279,456 |
455,635 |
ID |
23 |
Open Caucus |
14 |
16 |
14,764 |
21,224 |
UT |
33 |
Open Caucus |
19 |
21 |
83,620 |
131,403 |
AK |
16 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
5,550 |
8,880 |
HI |
25 |
Closed Caucus |
13 |
15 |
22,537 |
37,562 |
WA |
101 |
Modified Caucus |
59 |
66 |
399,880 |
611,937 |
WI |
86 |
Open Primary |
48 |
54 |
699,333 |
1,113,753 |
WY |
14 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
6,252 |
8,753 |
NY |
247 |
Closed Primary |
125 |
140 |
1,071,903 |
1,891,143 |
CT |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
199,831 |
354,539 |
DE |
21 |
Closed Primary |
10 |
11 |
50,482 |
96,374 |
MD |
95 |
Closed Primary |
42 |
47 |
434,465 |
878,174 |
PA |
189 |
Closed Primary |
96 |
107 |
1,322,769 |
2,336,480 |
RI |
24 |
Modified Primary |
13 |
15 |
116,661 |
186,657 |
IN |
83 |
Open Primary |
44 |
49 |
754,667 |
1,278,314 |
GU |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
2,583 |
4,521 |
WV |
29 |
Modified Primary |
17 |
19 |
235,803 |
359,910 |
Abroad |
13 |
Open Caucus |
6.5 |
7 |
12,441 |
23,105 |
KY |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
395,542 |
701,768 |
OR |
61 |
Closed Primary |
37 |
41 |
430,587 |
640,630 |
VI |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
1,126 |
1,970 |
PR |
60 |
Closed Caucus |
30 |
33 |
211,518 |
384,578 |
CA |
475 |
Modified Primary |
239 |
267 |
2,848,183 |
5,066,993 |
MT |
21 |
Open Primary |
13 |
15 |
130,301 |
182,421 |
NJ |
126 |
Modified Primary |
61 |
68 |
615,885 |
1,141,119 |
NM |
34 |
Closed Primary |
18 |
20 |
87,870 |
149,379 |
SD |
20 |
Closed Primary |
12 |
13 |
63,568 |
97,797 |
ND |
18 |
Open Caucus |
11 |
12 |
12,675 |
19,012 |
DC |
20 |
Closed Primary |
8 |
9 |
55,797 |
123,994 |
TOTAL |
2033 |
|
1057.5 |
1181 |
10,566,050 |
18,308,105 |
(Note: Washington is an estimate based on ‘08 reported turnout of 15.4% of registered voters and 2016 registered voter figures, all other data is from Green Papers. Torilahure has a far more detailed look at delegate allocation in each state which refines my rather blunt targets above)
To give you a sense of the hurdle, turning NY into a solid Bernie win (from a tie) will require moving 100k voters from Hillary’s into Bernie’s column, or getting that many to show up and vote for Bernie. We have 30 days till then. That means 3,000 successful calls into NY per day. It’s tough, but it is doable.
The Reuters tracking poll has Bernie up by two points as you can see in the headline graphic. In the Far West/Rockies he’s up 53-34, in the Southwest and Plains, he’s up 40-33, in New England/Great Lakes he’s up 47-33. Those numbers don’t add up to 100 because the rest of the people don’t intend to vote! We need to fix that.
This is a solid poll, interviewing 2,000-3,000 people per week. If you look at the Mid-Atlantic and South-East regions, it shows Hillary ahead by 18-20 points all of Feb/March which is when that region voted, so it is not badly skewed. The one drawback is that people are asked to complete survey online. So it may overstates support for Bernie a bit but not wildly. The support is there. We know Bernie’s policies are popular with a majority of people, we just need to get them to put aside their skepticism and head to the polls.
Yes, we’re under-performing 2008 turnout, but that can be fixed, it’s under our control. We need to have roughly 19 million people vote in the next few weeks and get 58% of them to vote for Bernie.
We need to get that “Won’t Vote” number down to zero and move it to Bernie’s column by reaching out to people who think the race is done or who haven’t looked at Bernie yet.
So let’s hit the phones (or the streets).
PS. This little series was just intended as a half-time recap of where we are and the tough but very achievable task we have ahead of us. Bernie’s far exceed expectations thus far, and so has the team doing phone-banking and GOTV. We need to keep it up.