Leading Off:
● NH-Sen: Now this is how Democrats should be linking Republican candidates to Donald Trump. EMILY's List and Planned Parenthood have launched a new $1.7 million campaign against New Hampshire Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and their spot starts straight away with footage of Trump proclaiming that "Planned Parenthood should absolutely be defunded"—an unpopular position in the Granite State—before the narrator accuses Ayotte of "voting six times to do just that."
The ad concludes with a clip of Ayotte saying that she thinks Roe v. Wade should be overturned, then returns to Trump, who declares: "There has to be some form of punishment" for women who get abortions. We like this ad a lot because unlike some Democratic spots that try to tie Republicans to Trump without actually showing Trump saying anything offensive or reckless, this spot smartly shoves Trump's face right in the viewers' faces, reminding them why he's so awful in the first place.
As we've noted before, there are plenty of voters who aren't paying close attention to Trump, so they may not be familiar with his many, many awful comments. And even voters who are already inclined to oppose Trump could always use a good reminder right off the bat why they're not supporting him. Once an ad has viewers recoiling, that's when you connect whichever Republican you're running against to this human nightmare running for president.
Hillary Clinton and her allies frequently use clips of Trump talking in their own ads to make their case against him, understanding that he's his own worst surrogate. Democrats running for House or Senate have a little more work to do to forge that chain between the bottom and the top of the GOP ticket, but it's not that hard—and Planned Parenthood and EMILY's List are showing how it's done.
Senate:
● CA-Sen: A new SurveyMonkey poll on the general election for the Los Angeles Times and the University of Southern California gives Attorney General Kamala Harris a 30-16 lead over Rep. Loretta Sanchez, a fellow Democrat. Sixteen percent of respondents say they won't vote in this Democratic race, and 36 percent are undecided. What's very strange is that undecided has ballooned at the expense of all the other groups since SurveyMonkey's June poll. Back then, Harris led 47-22, with 26 percent saying they would skip the race.
● FL-Sen: It appears that the DSCC has altered their planned ad buys on behalf of Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy once again. According to Politico's Burgess Everett, the committee had intended to spend $1 million in Florida beginning the week of Sept. 27 but has now chopped that sum down to $300,000. That follows news from a few days ago, when we learned that the DSCC had cancelled its spending for the week of Sept. 20. Then, an unnamed official said those would instead get used closer to Election Day. This time, no such assurance was offered.
So does this really represent some sort of cutback? Or do these moves just reflect the kind of modern shuffling of resources that groups that can't legally coordinate with one another regularly engage in? On the one hand, as we noted last week, the Senate Majority PAC is still heading up on the air starting Tuesday, and the union AFSCME also just invested six figures in additional TV time for Murphy, so that's a continued vote of confidence. On the other hand, GOP Sen. Marco Rubio has not only consistently led Murphy in the polls, he's also managed to run ahead of Donald Trump. At the same time, Florida is the most expensive state to advertise in among this year's Senate battlegrounds, so other races could take priority for Democrats.
Ultimately, it's impossible for us to know, given the information we have available. All we can do is wait to see what these outside groups do next.
● NC-Sen, MO-Sen: Some very big news from Team Blue in two Senate races. Politico reports that the DSCC is launching a $1.5 million TV buy to help Jason Kander in Missouri, and a $2.5 million buy in support of Deborah Ross in North Carolina. This is the first time a major Democratic group has run ads in either contest.
For months, polls have shown a tight race between Ross and GOP Sen. Richard Burr, but outside groups from both sides remained off the airwaves. However, the conservative group One Nation started running $2.5 million in positive ads for Burr in August. The Senate Leadership Fund, another GOP group, upped the ante two weeks ago when they announced that they would spend $8.1 million for Burr this cycle. The Democrats may have calculated that, as long as the GOP wasn't advertising, it would be better to also stay off the airwaves until closer to Election Day in order to save their resources. But now that the GOP has started their ad campaign, Team Blue evidently has decided it's time to commit resources to North Carolina.
It's a little more surprising to see Democrats advertising in Missouri, a conservative state that Donald Trump is likely to carry in November. However, polls have consistently shown Republican Sen. Roy Blunt with a 3 to 7-point lead over Kander, and the DSCC has apparently decided that Blunt is worth spending money against. One Nation has also run ads here and the SLF reserved $2.5 million in fall TV time to support Blunt back in June; the NRA also recently started running ads against Kander. This is also the first time a major Democratic group has run commercials here.
While the DSCC's move is welcome, both Kander and Ross will need a lot more outside help if they're going to win. We'll want to see if the DSCC's $4 million ad campaign encourages other Democratic groups like Senate Majority PAC to get involved, and if the DSCC commits more money to either state. We'll also want to see if conservative organizations invest more resources to help Burr and Blunt now that Team Blue is getting involved. But at the very least, it's good to see that the GOP won't have the airwaves to themselves in these two contests.
● Polls: We don't exactly have a great set of Senate polls for Democrats this time:
● AZ-Sen: Marist: John McCain (R-inc): 57, Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 38 (40-38 Trump)
● FL-Sen: JMC Analytics (R): Marco Rubio (R-inc): 43, Patrick Murphy (D): 38 (46-42 Trump) (July: 40-33 Rubio)
● GA-Sen: Marist: Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 53, Jim Barksdale (D): 38 (44-42 Trump)
● NH-Sen: Marist: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 52, Maggie Hassan (D): 44 (39-37 Clinton) (June: 50-42 Ayotte)
● NV-Sen: Marist: Joe Heck (R): 47, Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 45 (42-41 Trump)
● NV-Sen: PPP (D) for Project New America: Cortez Masto (D): 42, Heck (R): 41 (45-42 Clinton)
This is only the third Arizona Senate poll we've seen since June. CNN/ORC recently gave McCain a 52-39 lead, while a PPP survey for a Democratic group had the two deadlocked 43-43. Marist comes down on CNN's side (and then some), but we still don't have enough data to say whether McCain has opened up a clear lead or not.
Most polls have shown a tight race in New Hampshire, with the HuffPost Pollster average showing Ayotte and Hassan tied 44-44, so it seems unlikely that Ayotte has a massive edge.
Nevada doesn't get polled often, but the data we have also shows a tight race, with perhaps a small edge for Heck. As we've noted before, pollsters underestimated Democrats in the Silver State in 2008, 2010, and 2012, and the same thing could be happening again. Democrats, led by retiring Sen. Harry Reid, also have a turnout machine that should not be underestimated.
Still, as Jon Ralston wrote in a recent article for Politico, it's very possible that, despite Nevada's large Hispanic population, Donald Trump is improving on Mitt Romney's 52-46 defeat, which would definitely help Heck. Ralston notes that Nevada has a high proportion of white voters without a college degree, a good group for Trump. The state economy is also still not doing well after the Great Recession, which also could help the GOP ticket. At the very least, though, Democrats will be happy that Heck isn't running very far ahead of Trump right now.
House:
● CA-49: Democrats sound excited about taking on Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in this suburban San Diego seat. In June, the DCCC released a poll showing Issa tied with Democrat Doug Applegate, and last month, Applegate dropped his own poll giving Issa a 45-42 edge. However, Issa has finally responded by releasing a Public Opinion Strategies survey showing him leading by a strong 52-38 margin. The memo did not include presidential numbers, but Politico says that POS has Donald Trump leading 39-37. The recent Applegate poll had Hillary Clinton up 46-41; Romney won 52-46 here, but this is the type of affluent and well-educated seat where Trump is likely to be a liability.
The D-Trip added Applegate to their Red to Blue list for top candidates last week, but they don't appear to have made any TV reservations here. Issa is the wealthiest member of Congress, so he can afford to spend whatever he wants, but Applegate will need national party support if he wants to pull off an upset. Favorable polls are great, but a major Democratic buy would be the absolute best way that Team Blue could show confidence in Applegate's chances.
● NY-22: While the NRCC took two months to add underfunded Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney to their Young Guns list for top candidates after she beat both their preferred contenders in the primary, they're giving her the financial support she'll need to win here. Syracuse.com reports that the NRCC has reserved $805,000 in fall airtime for this open Utica-area seat. The Democratic group House Majority PAC recently started its $1.1 million ad campaign here with a negative spot against Tenney.
We also have yet another poll of the three-way general election, this time from wealthy independent Martin Babinec. His late August survey from John Zogby Strategies gives Tenney a 36-20 lead over him, with Democrat Kim Myers at 18. The memo includes numbers from unreleased June and July polls; according to Babinec, Myers has gone from 46 percent to just 18 now, while he started with just 3, and Tenney has barely moved. Presidential numbers were not included here. Babinec has run several ads mostly portraying himself as a non-partisan businessman, but he's said that he'll caucus with the GOP if he wins.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of this survey. Zogby's reputation has long been in the dumps, particularly when it started conducting internet polls that bore no resemblance to reality (leading Nate Silver to brand it "the worst pollster in the world" in 2009). There's no reason to think that Zogby has gotten better over the years: In fact, a June poll of Kansas gave Hillary Clinton an unbelievable 43-36 lead.
Both national parties also released polls here over the last few weeks. A Democratic survey showed Tenney and Myers tied 35-35, with Babinec at 21, while a GOP poll had Tenney leading Myers 33-27, with Babinec at 23. In other words, even Team Red doesn't think that Tenney has the massive edge that Babinec thinks she has. And while it's very believable that Babinec rose from obscurity since he started running commercials, there's no reason that Myers should have dramatically collapsed in three months, especially since no one has aired any ads against her yet. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as a Tossup.
Grab Bag:
● International Elections: Hong Kong has always had a fraught relationship with mainland China, which has lately begun to meddle in the city's affairs more aggressively than ever. But in recent elections for Hong Kong's legislative council, voters sent a sharp message to Beijing, in favor of democracy and against outside interference. You can read all about the results in the September edition of our International Elections Digest, which also covers a presidential impeachment in Brazil, another successful election for a surging far-right party in Germany, and a surprising move toward real multi-party democracy in South Africa—and more. Click here to read it today.
● Primaries: Tuesday brings us our final primary night of the cycle, with Delaware and New Hampshire taking center stage. (Apparently, because Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution and New Hampshire hosts the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, both states feel they can procrastinate when it comes to their other primaries.) As always, Jeff Singer previews the key races here.
The main event will be the GOP race for New Hampshire's swingy 1st Congressional District, where scandal-tarred Rep. Frank Guinta faces a primary with businessman Rich Ashooh. Both parties also host gubernatorial primaries in the Granite State. In Delaware, there's a three-way race for the state's safely blue congressional seat. Polls in the last-in-the-nation primary start to close at 7 PM ET, and we'll begin our liveblog then at Daily Kos Elections and tweeting as well.
Ad Roundup:
● NV-Sen: The NRSC somewhat-confusingly argues that Democrat Catherine Cortez is too close to a DC law firm that gave her campaign contributions.
● PA-Sen: The NRSC's spot against Democrat Katie McGinty starts with what may be the most cringe-inducing line we can remember from a recent campaign ad. A guy with a bike (who, credit where credit is due, is wearing a helmet) tells the audience, "I make deliveries. Today, I'm delivering… the truth." He goes on to argue that as head of the state EPA, McGinty sent money to organizations that employed her husband, and the state ethics commission decided her actions violated the law.
● WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold features a clip of Republican Sen. Ron Johnson calling Social Security "a legal Ponzi scheme," before the narrator argues that Johnson's policies will do just that to the program.
● MO-Gov: Republican Eric Greitens pushes back on a story that reveled he had received $700,000 from the charity he founded to help returning veterans. Greitens tells the audience that he donated his combat pay to support his group and refused a salary for two years to get it going. He continues by saying that Democrat Chris Koster will probably keep lying about his work. Koster's new commercial once again emphasizes his support from the Missouri Farm Bureau.
● CA-25: Democrat Bryan Caforio features a nurse arguing that Republican Rep. Steve Knight not only supports the GOP's crusade against Planned Parenthood and abortion rights, he wouldn't even make exceptions for women who were raped or abused. The spot then shows Knight declaring, "I am pro-life, I don't make exception."
● FL-07: In her first ad, Democrat Stephanie Murphy describes how, as a baby, her family fled to the U.S. from Vietnam. The narrator also talks about her work for the Department of Defense after 9/11.
● FL-18: In his first general election ad, Democrat Randy Perkins argues that Republican Brian Mast is "the political heir of tea party extremist Allen West," a Republican who represented some of this area for one term before narrowly losing re-election in a redrawn seat in 2012.The spot continues with a clip of West saying, "Take your message of equality… get the hell out of the United States of America."
The narrator then says that Mast called "extremist fighting radio host" Mark Levin his mentor. The spot concludes with audio of Levin proclaiming, "I don't know why your husband doesn't put a gun to his temple," before Mast his heard saying, "He's been a mentor to me without even knowing it." It's a bit weird to see West showing up in a commercial considering that he only barely lost in 2012 and hasn't been on the ballot in four years. The Levin connection feels a bit more natural since it's accompanied by a clip of Mast talking about him as a mentor.
● IA-03: Democrat Jim Mowrer once again emphasizes his service in Iraq.
● IN-09: Republican Trey Hollingsworth only moved to Indiana from Tennessee shortly before he kicked off his campaign, and he's using his first general election ad to get ahead of Democratic attacks painting him as a carpetbagger. Hollingsworth promotes several business projects in the state, and pledges "to bring business sense to government."
● MI-07: Democrat Gretchen Driskell ties Republican Rep. Tim Walburg to unpopular trade deals.
● MN-03: Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen is out with his first two spots, one positive and one negative. In his positive ad, a local police officer praises Paulsen's work helping law enforcement find missing children and combat sex trafficking. His other spot argues that Democrat Terri Bonoff has consistently voted for higher taxes, and features a clip of her saying, "I have repeatedly been willing to vote for unpopular taxes."
● NY-23: Democrat John Plumb pushes back on Republican Rep. Tom Reed's attempts to paint him as a carpetbagger from DC, pointing out his local roots and that his military service took him away from western New York.
● PA-08: In his first spot, Republican Brian Fitzpatrick promotes his local roots and time as a federal prosecutor and FBI agent. The GOP group Defending Mainstreet is spending at least $98,000 on a spot hitting Democrat Steve Santarsiero on taxes.
● TX-23: Democrat Pete Gallego features two veterans praising his work, before Gallego talks about his work helping them.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.