Leading Off:
● MO-Sen: Last week, the DSCC made their first ad reservations in Missouri's Senate race, committing $3.5 million to help Jason Kander. Now, Politico reports that the NRSC is about to jump in to defend Republican Sen. Roy Blunt. While the group has only placed $270,000 worth of ads so far, a GOP source tells them that the NRSC is "preparing for a seven-figure ad buy." That's vague (the NRSC spending $1 million is very different than the NRSC spending $9,999,999), but it's another good indication that both sides agree that Blunt is vulnerable in this conservative state.
The DSCC's first commercial is also out. They argue that Blunt has gotten rich in DC, and they note that "Blunt's wife and three kids are all lobbyists." Kander and his allies have been framing this race as a contest between a veteran who served his country in Afghanistan and a longtime politician who enjoys the perks of power, and the DSCC seems to agree that that's an effective message.
Team Red also has a simple theme: Jason Kander is a liberal's liberal. Missouri is likely, though not assured, to go for Donald Trump, so it's easy to see why Blunt wants to tie his rival as closely as possible to national Democrats. However, Kander made their campaign to caricature him a bit more difficult last week when he released a powerful commercial that featured him assembling a rifle while blindfolded, while also noting that he supports background checks to keep weapons like that out of the hands of terrorists.
Blunt is out with a response commercial arguing that, no really, Kander is a crazy liberal. Blunt's ad features footage from Kander's spot as the narrator insists that "[s]ome people can put together a gun blindfolded." As the camera pans out, the viewer sees more videos of people assembling guns, and the narrator continues, "Some really, really fast. Some do it upside down and blindfolded. But only one of these is a Hillary Clinton national campaign chairman." The rest of the commercial argues that Kander got an F from the NRA and backs amnesty for undocumented immigrants.
It feels a bit awkward that even Blunt's campaign is conceding that Kander is good with guns while still bashing him over the Second Amendment. In fact, even Blunt's commercial spends a significant amount of time highlighting Kander's skill before it starts attacking him.
Senate:
● NV-Sen: In a new spot, the Senate Leadership Fund once again argues that when Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was Nevada's attorney general, many rape kits went untested, then claims that "her successor quickly found money to solve the problem." In response to earlier ads that leveled similar charges, Cortez Masto's campaign has said that she laid the legal groundwork for the state's settlement with J.P. Morgan over its abusive lending practices. Money from that settlement (which was finalized under current Attorney General Adam Laxalt) was then used to help clear the rape kit backlog.
However, Cortez Masto has yet to run any ads pushing back against these attacks, and by letting these assaults go unanswered with voters, Cortez Masto risks having her image damaged in ways that will be hard to repair with so little time left in the race. But fortunately, she has many ways to respond, like highlighting the grant money she secured to combat domestic violence, or calling attention to the votes her opponent, GOP Rep. Joe Heck, cast against added funding to test rape kits. In fact, Cortez Masto has outlined many such avenues in the press release she sent not long ago trying to correct the record. These topics are just waiting to be made into ads of their own.
● Polls: Today's Senate (and gubernatorial) polls are all from institutes of higher education:
● FL-Sen: Monmouth: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 47, Patrick Murphy (D): 45 (46-41 Clinton) (Aug.: 48-43 Rubio)
● FL-Sen: St. Leo University: Rubio: 44, Murphy 35 (45-40 Clinton) (Aug.: 46-38 Rubio)
● IL-Sen: Loras College: Tammy Duckworth (D): 41, Mark Kirk (R-inc): 36 (43-30 Clinton)
● NC-Sen: Elon University: Deborah Ross (D): 44, Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (44-43 Trump) (April: 37-33 Burr)
● NC-Gov: Elon University: Pat McCrory (R-inc): 49, Roy Cooper (D): 46 (April: 48-42 Cooper)
What Monmouth giveth, St. Leo taketh away. While both schools show very similar numbers in the presidential race (and welcome numbers indeed for Hillary Clinton), there's a huge gulf in their views on the Senate contest. Monmouth has the more established track record, but St. Leo is a bit closer to the aggregate of all the polls. If it's really just a 2-point race, let's wait until we see some other polls confirming that fact.
Meanwhile, Loras gives us our first independent poll of the Illinois Senate race this entire year, believe it or not. This contest feels like an orphan, in part because it's the only major Senate battle taking place in a safely blue state this year, and in part, well, because both parties haven't really been treating it like it's a major Senate battle. It's already late September and neither has the DSCC felt the need to intervene on Duckworth's behalf nor has the NRSC felt it worthwhile to prop up Kirk. Democrats can only hope that this state of affairs remains unchanged between now and Nov. 8.
Finally, Elon's North Carolina poll is a serious head-scratcher. Somehow, they have Ross leading while Cooper trails, an outcome we've never seen before. Cooper has a 48-47 edge in the poll averages and has led McCrory in 20 of the 39 surveys in our database. Ross, meanwhile, trails by an average 47-44 margin and has only ever led in five of the 27 polls we've collected. While she's been coming on strong lately, it's very unlikely she's now doing better than her ticket-mate.
House:
● CO-03: The Democratic group House Majority PAC is spending $800,000 on a newly announced ad buy that will last until Oct. 3; several months ago, HMP reserved a separate $360,000 for this race, as well as $3 million to be divided between CO-03 and CO-06.
Their first spot features a clip of a local reporter saying that a draft bill from Republican Rep. Scott Tipton was "largely written by Tipton's biggest campaign contributor," before the narrator argues that his proposal would threaten "thousands of recreation industry jobs." The rest of the spot praises Democrat Gail Schwartz, a former state senator, as someone who will "protect Colorado's public lands, jobs, and our rural way of life."
This seat, which is located on Colorado's Western Slope, backed Mitt Romney 52-46. Donald Trump is struggling in Colorado, but the damage may be limited in the 3rd District, which has a lower median income than the nation as a whole (though it has a similar proportion of college graduates). However, Latinos make up a sizable 25 percent of the district, so Team Blue may still have room to grow. Schwartz has been an impressive fundraiser but given the seat's red hue, Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Lean Republican.
● MI-06: Here's a funny introductory ad from Democrat Paul Clements, a college professor running against Republican Rep. Fred Upton in Michigan's 6th District. Clements tells the audience that "Indiana Jones made being a professor cool. I'm not sure I can pull that off." (To be fair, Steven Spielberg left all the scenes where Indy graded papers in Raiders of the Lost Ark on the cutting room floor.)
Clements continues by saying that he's been to foreign lands "not for treasure, but to help people in the Peace Corps." Clements says that while Indiana Jones "is known for his fear of snakes," his fear is "a Congress that puts special interests first," and he vows to "fight for good jobs and college affordability." Clements does tell us at the end that yes, he's also afraid of snakes. Of course, he's trying to get to Capitol Hill, so he's going to need to be prepared to deal with all sorts of reptiles.
Clements has a tough task ahead of him in this Kalamazoo seat. While Mitt Romney only carried this district 50-49, Upton is an entrenched incumbent who has never come close to losing re-election. The DCCC has added Clements to their Emerging Races program, but no outside groups appear to have reserved any ad time here. This seat's median income and education levels are also below the national averages, so it might even be turf that's somewhat friendly to Trump.
However, thanks to a key endorsement from Bernie Sanders, Clements had amassed a respectable $448,000 war chest at the end of June, so if Trump takes another dive nationally and becomes a liability for people like Upton, Clements might be able to capitalize. And hey, if the Indiana Jones franchise could survive that nuking the fridge moment in Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, anything is possible.
● NY-19: A few weeks ago, Republican John Faso released a poll from McLaughlin & Associates (a group whose work we are not fond of, to say the least), that gave him a 46-41 lead over Democrat Zephyr Teachout in this open Hudson Valley seat. Teachout's allies at the DCCC are now out with their own survey from their in-house polling arm that shows her leading Faso 47-42, essentially a mirror image of Faso's poll. Faso's memo did not include presidential results, while the DCCC says that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 3, though they did not provide any actual toplines. Obama carried this seat 52-46 in 2012.
● WV-02: National Democrats haven't shown any interest in this central West Virginia seat ever since ex-Del. Mark Hunt defeated the DCCC's favored candidate in the May primary. Hunt has raised very little money, and he's running in a seat that Romney won 60-38. And while Republican Rep. Alex Mooney's decision to move from Maryland to the Mountain State to run for Congress almost cost him a win during the 2014 GOP wave, that issue is likely to be less salient now that Mooney is the incumbent.
However, Hunt is arguing that he has a path to victory. The Democrat is out with a Lake Research Partners poll that gives Mooney just a 38-35 lead. After positive statements about each candidate are read (the memo includes the text of both), Hunt takes a 43-41 edge. Presidential numbers were not included in the release.
Even if Mooney is vulnerable, Hunt's going to need a significant amount of help if he wants to win. At the end of June, Mooney held a $478,000 to $49,000 cash-on-hand edge. One-third of this district is in the expensive DC media market, so it won't be cheap for Hunt or anyone else to go on the air here.
Ad Roundup:
● AZ-Sen: Republican Sen. John McCain continues to argue that Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's vote for Obamacare trashed the state.
● FL-Sen: Democrat Patrick Murphy repeatedly features a clip of Republican Sen. Marco Rubio declaring that "I don't require there to be an exception for rape or incest," and the narrator argues that Rubio would even take away the right to choose from women infected with Zika. The Senate Leadership Fund continues to say that Murphy embellished his resume.
● IN-Sen: The DSCC attacks Republican Todd Young on Social Security. The Senate Leadership Fund says that Democrat Evan Bayh got rich from a big bank he voted to bail out. The NRA has also placed a $644,000 buy for Team Red here, though their ad is not out yet.
● NC-Sen: In their first commercial of the race, the DSCC argues that Republican Sen. Richard Burr is in the pocket of the insurance industry and has voted to make Medicare more expensive for seniors.
● NH-Sen: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte features a couple who lost their daughter to opioids praising Ayotte for reaching out to them and working to help other families. The Senate Leadership Fund argues that Democrat Maggie Hassan would defend Obamacare and backs the administration's nuclear deal with Iran.
● NV-Sen: EMILY's List spends $1 million arguing that, while Republican Joe Heck likes to play up his medical background in ads, he's really repeatedly voted to defund Planned Parenthood and "criminalize a woman's right to choose." The NRSC continues a line of attack from a recent Heck ad and says that Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto took several luxurious trips as state attorney general that were paid for by special interests and taxpayers.
● PA-Sen: Democrat Katie McGinty attacks Republican Sen. Pat Toomey for voting for tax breaks that encourage companies to ship jobs overseas, and she pledges to end these tax giveaways. The Club for Growth ties McGinty to "the Philadelphia political machine," and argues she wants higher taxes; the spot is airing in the Harrisburg media market.
● WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold calls for helping Wisconsin businesses grow.
● IN-Gov: Democrat John Gregg defends his work as speaker of the state House and argues that Republican Eric Holcomb will just continue the same policies of outgoing Gov. Mike Pence that are hurting Indiana.
● AK-AL: Democrat Steve Lindbeck features a tugboat worker arguing that Republican Rep. Don Young didn't defend Alaska jobs from a company that wants to outsource them to Louisiana.
● AZ-01: In his first ad, Democrat Tom O'Halleran highlights his law enforcement background and calls for not paying Congress if they don't pass a budget and taking away their first-class travel perks.
● AZ-02: Republican Rep. Martha McSally talks about her military service.
● CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera recently ran a spot against Republican Sheriff Scott Jones that featured news anchors describing how a former Jones employee accused him of sexual harassment and unwanted touching. Jones is up with a response commercial that features a legion of people, including several wearing law enforcement uniforms, praising Jones' work and character. Aside from one person imploring the audience not to believe the attacks against Jones, the spot does not address Bera's commercial or the accusations against Jones.
● CA-21: Republican Rep. David Valadao is out with his first general election ads in English and Spanish, where he promotes his Central Valley roots and work for veterans.
● CA-24: Republican Justin Fareed says that Democrat Salud Carbajal hasn't done anything to adopt common-sense solutions to California's water crisis.
● CA-49: In his first ad, Democrat Doug Applegate links Republican Rep. Darrell Issa to Donald Trump. Applegate wisely uses clips of Trump to make his case, with Trump declaring, "I'm really rich," and "Nobody knows the system better than me." The narrator then accuses Issa of "gaming the system to line his own pockets" by "steering millions in taxpayer money to help properties he owned." Applegate then appears and calls for a congressman "who looks out for you, not himself."
● CO-06: Democrat Morgan Carroll talks about how her father's life savings were wiped out after he was diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease, and she says she spent her career fighting for people with disabilities. Carroll goes on to attack Donald Trump for mocking people with disabilities before she argues that Republican Rep. Mike Coffman hasn't stood up to him. The NRCC portrays Carroll as a huge spender who voted for higher taxes in the state legislature.
● FL-07: Over the summer, the Democratic group House Majority PAC reserved $853,000 against Republican Rep. John Mica, and they've announced that they'll spend that amount over the next two weeks. Their first commercial attacks Mica for raising his pay eight times even though Congress hasn't passed a budget. The narrator then praises Democrat Stephanie Murphy for fighting for "No Budget, No Pay."
● IL-12: Republican Rep. Mike Bost features the president of a local boot business praising him for helping them when big companies tried to make it tougher for them to get contracts.
● IN-09: In her first ad, Democrat Shelli Yoder talks about her humble origins and calls for cutting wasteful spending and creating better jobs.
● ME-02: The NRCC once again ties Democrat Emily Cain to Hillary Clinton, this time attacking her support for the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran. The spot frequently uses a clip of Cain declaring, "We need to uphold the deal," to make its argument.
● MI-01: The NRCC says that, while Democrat Lon Johnson likes to talk about his local roots, "his real family is the Democrat Party."
● MT-AL: In her first negative ad, Democrat Denise Juneau argues that Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke signed a pledge to sell off Montana's public lands, and is now lying both about Juneau's stance on that issue and about her support for the Second Amendment.
● NV-03: The NRCC calls Democrat Jacky Rosen the handpicked candidate of Washington liberals, and hits her for supporting Obamacare.
● NV-04: The NRCC praises what they say are Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy's votes for balanced budgets while accusing Democrat Ruben Kihuen of voting for a massive tax hike while allowing a pay raise for himself. Once again, what the narrator demonizes as "the largest tax hike in Nevada history" was pushed by GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval and passed by both houses of the GOP-led legislature.
● NY-03: Democrat Tom Suozzi features a clip of John F. Kennedy declaring, "but knowing that here on Earth, God's work must truly be our own," and the candidate pledges to "do what's right beyond party politics." Suozzi concludes by promising to be "a new kind of old-fashioned Democrat."
● NY-19: Democrat Zephyr Teachout rides a boat across the Hudson River, pointing out that "at one end is Albany, where politicians like my opponent sold out to corporate interests," and at the other end are the Wall Street companies that wrecked the economy and where Republican John Faso also worked. Teachout says that in between are strong communities on a polluted river that need jobs. The NRCC ties Teachout to the Iran nuclear deal, and repeatedly calls her "Professor Teachout" to unsubtly make the case that she's an out-of-touch egghead.
● UT-04: Republican Rep. Mia Love features the daughter of a deceased veteran praising her after the VA denied the family military benefits.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
