Leading Off:
● House: For the second time in two days, a new poll finds Democrats with a 7-point lead in the generic congressional ballot—right around the mark they'd need in order to pull off the improbably feat of retaking the House. On Monday, an NBC/Wall Street Journal survey said that voters prefer to see Democrats control Congress next year by a 49-42 margin. That was followed on Tuesday by a Global Strategy Group poll for the DCCC that also found Democrats ahead by that exact same 49-42 spread.
But the news is actually much, much worse for Republicans than even this. GSG also tested three hypothetical scenarios that reflect how the final month of the race could unfold in the wake of Donald Trump's "grab them by the pussy" remarks, and every alternative is just terrible for the GOP:
● Against a Republican "who continues to endorse Donald Trump" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
● Similarly, against a "Republican candidate who had supported Trump previously, but just withdrew their support" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 12-point advantage.
● Finally, even against a "Republican candidate who never formally endorsed Donald Trump and now says they won't vote for him" the Democratic margin moves from a 7-point advantage to a 10-point advantage.
How do you like that! If Republican congressional candidates stick with Trump, they get knocked down 5 net points—and if they abandon Trump, the exact same thing happens! And unlike many message-testing questions, which so often reflect only the most wishful scenarios, GSG's questions are fast becoming reality. Indeed, the Trump tapes have led to a major shift in strategies for Democrats, who just a few weeks ago had concluded that Trump wouldn't help them sink Republicans in most cases. But given the flood of new ads we've seen since Friday that highlight Trump's offensive comments, there's no doubt that many Democrats now see him as a potent weapon.
Of course, we'll have to see if this lasts. But with Trump gleefully immolating the Republican Party, it very well could. And that could, improbably, mean a gavel for Nancy Pelosi.
Senate:
● GA-Sen: Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson has consistently led wealthy Democrat Jim Barksdale in the polls, even in surveys that show Donald Trump in trouble in Georgia. Barksdale recently replaced much of his campaign team with just a month to go before Election Day, another strong sign for Isakson. But surprisingly, Isakson is still launching a negative TV spot against his Democratic foe. The ad argues that Barksdale got rich from businesses that outsource Georgia jobs, even though he says that capitalism doesn't work.
It's surprising that Isakson feels he needs to go negative. It's possible that he just wants to knock Barksdale out of contention quickly just in case Trump's travails cause problems for Peach State Republicans, but something else could be going on. Daily Kos Elections rates this race as Safe Republican, but we'll keep an eye out for developments.
Gubernatorial:
● NJ-Gov: Last year, Democratic state Sen. Ray Lesniak seemed to unambiguously announce his 2017 plans, declaring, "I'm not running for re-election. I'm running for governor." But on Tuesday, Lesniak announced that he would do the exact opposite and seek re-election instead.
Lesniak's decision comes shorty after two prominent New Jersey Democrats, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and state Senate President Steve Sweeney, also decided not to run in the primary against the wealthy and well-connected Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive who also served as President Obama's ambassador to Germany. Lesniak acknowledged on Tuesday that he was hoping that multiple candidates would challenge Murphy, but that a "head-to-head" battle would be "impossible."
At least one Democrat is still considering facing Murphy. State Assemblyman John Wisniewski said last week that he would form an exploratory committee, and he said on Monday that he's "unofficially looked at making a formal decision right after Election Day." But Wisniewski is going to need a ton of things to go right for him if he's going to defeat Murphy, who has the support of powerful New Jersey Democrats and a huge warchest.
● VA-Gov: Apparently, it is possible to be too rabid for the Donald Trump campaign. Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart, who says he'll run for governor next year, was Trump's Virginia campaign chair until Monday. But Stewart organized a demonstration outside the RNC to protest their tepid support for Trump, and Stewart says that Trump's people "threatened to fire me if I didn't shut down this rally. They had me fired, it's really that simple."
Democrats would absolutely love it if Team Red nominated someone like Stewart next year, but that may not be in the cards. Stewart said months ago that he wouldn't kick off his gubernatorial campaign until this month, and he reported raising no money during the first six months of the year. Stewart seems to have burned his bridges both with the GOP establishment and with Trump fans, so he may just not have the resources to advertise in this expensive state if he goes ahead with a bid.
House:
● CA-49: Last week, the DCCC released a poll giving Democrat Doug Applegate a 46-42 lead over Republican Rep. Darrell Issa. Issa's campaign has responded by dropping a Public Opinion Strategies poll that shows him beating Applegate 48-39. Last month, a different POS poll showed Issa up 52-38, so he's acknowledged he's lost some ground. And while Issa's last poll showed Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 39-37 in this suburban San Diego seat, he did not release presidential toplines this time.
However, the DCCC's recent poll gave Clinton a 49-35 lead, which also seemed odd. Romney won this seat 52-46, and while Clinton stood a good chance of winning this affluent and well-educated seat even before the 2005 Trump tape dropped on Friday, Team Blue's sample felt too optimistic. Note that this Issa poll was conducted Oct. 4-6, which was also before the Washington Post released the Trump tape, so things may have dramatically changed here since then.
● FL-13: On behalf of Florida Politics, St. Pete Polls takes another look at the race for this St. Petersburg seat. This time, they give Democrat Charlie Crist a 48-43 lead over GOP Rep. David Jolly; the sample gives Hillary Clinton a 47-43 edge in a seat Obama carried 55-44. Three weeks ago, St. Pete Polls had Jolly up 46-43.
As we've noted before, St. Pete Polls has produced some problematic polls in the past, most recently in the August Democratic primary for the 9th District. However, it's possible that Crist has made real gains in the last few weeks. While the Democratic group House Majority PAC recently began running spots against Jolly, the congressman has an awful relationship with D.C. Republicans, and they've left him to fend for himself.
Jolly already had a hard enough task winning re-election in a blue seat with Donald Trump on the ballot, and a lopsided air war wouldn't help things. However, Jolly did recently earn an endorsement from the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce, though they haven't aired any ads for him yet. A recent DCCC poll gave Crist a 50-39 lead, but the committee only leaked that poll days after they reserved over $1 million for this seat, something they probably wouldn't do if they felt Crist was far ahead.
● KS-03: On behalf of the DCCC, Garin-Hart-Yang is out with a poll of Kansas' Congressional 3rd District. They give Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder a small 44-40 lead against Democrat Jay Sidie, with Libertarian Steve Hohe taking 9. (Without Hohe, Yoder has a similar 50-45 lead.) The sample gives Hillary Clinton a 52-42 edge in this suburban Kansas City seat. (The survey was taken Oct. 5-8, with the 2005 Trump tape surfacing on Oct. 7.)
While Romney won this district 54-44, this is the type of affluent and well-educated area where Trump has always struggled. Even an August Yoder poll, which gave the incumbent a 53-36 lead, had Clinton up 44-38. However, a September Sidie poll gave Clinton a stronger 45-31 edge, while Yoder led 49-37.
Until a few months ago, Yoder looked safe here. However, while Trump's unpopularity has complicated things for him, GOP Gov. Sam Brownback may be a bigger problem for Yoder. This poll gives Brownback a horrific 19-66 favorable rating, and for good reason. As we've noted before, Brownback has radically slashed the state budget, and his cuts to education have been particularly brutal. It's gotten so bad that last month, local Republican voters revolted against Brownback's self-described "experiment" and ousted several of his allies in the state legislature in the GOP primary. Sidie's very first ad tied Yoder to Brownback's education cuts; Yoder immediately released a response ad, a good indication that he knew this issue could harm him.
According to our House reservations chart, neither the DCCC nor House Majority PAC have reserved any ad time here. However, if the DCCC really believes that Yoder is vulnerable this close to Election Day, that's likely to change soon. As this poll shows, even Democrats concede that Yoder is the favorite. But if Trump causes Team Red more problems downballot in the next month, this is a seat where Republicans could be in for a nasty surprise.
Other Races:
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: Well, if this doesn't cost Republican Joe Arpaio re-election next month, probably nothing will. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that it would charge Arpaio with criminal contempt of court for violating a judge's orders to curtail his department's unconstitutional racial profiling practices. A trial is tentatively set for after the election in December. If found guilty, Arpaio could face jail time.
Arpaio has been sheriff of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix, since 1993. In that time, he's earned a notorious reputation for mistreating prisoners, including serving them discolored green and blue meat, forcing them to wear pink underwear, and sending them to live in tents, where he's bragged that temperatures could reach 145 degrees in the summer heat. Arpaio has also wasted taxpayer money on his quest to "investigate" President Barack Obama's birth certificate, and he still refuses to accept its legitimacy, even after Donald Trump left him stranded on Birther Island.
But what got Arpaio into trouble this time is a racial profiling suit. As the Arizona Republic describes, the case began in 2007, when a Mexican tourist legally visiting Arizona was detained by Arpaio's deputies. The lawsuit grew to include other Latinos who said they were profiled or detained while doing nothing wrong. In 2013, a federal judge, Murray Snow, ruled that Arpaio's department was illegally targeting Latinos, and he ordered reforms. But Arpaio was found to have repeatedly violated the order, and in May of this year, Snow held Arpaio and three of his aides in civil contempt. Later, Snow recommended that Arpaio be charged with criminal contempt, and now prosecutors have followed suit.
This November, Arpaio faces a rematch with Democrat Paul Penzone, whom he defeated by a 51-45 margin in 2012, the tightest of Arpaio's career. Arpaio is very well-funded and Maricopa usually is a reliably GOP area. However, last month a Democratic poll showed Penzone up 53-44, and Republicans haven't responded with contradictory numbers. This was already going to be a competitive and closely-watched race, and after Tuesday, Penzone has a new argument to make to conservative voters who are tired of Arpaio.
Ad Roundup:
● FL-Sen: Republican Sen. Marco Rubio attacks Democrat Patrick Murphy in Spanish, particularly over supposed lies Murphy is telling about Rubio's opposition to abortion rights for women infected with the Zika virus. However, Rubio really did oppose any abortion rights for these women, in line with his absolutist anti-choice position.
● IL-Sen: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk and the NRSC hit Democrat Tammy Duckworth for putting her political ambitions before helping veterans.
● MO-Sen: Democrat Jason Kander talks to the camera, arguing he can help Missouri clean up what's wrong with Washington by replacing the people running it. End Citizens United puts $900,000 behind a spot attacking Republican Sen. Roy Blunt for living it up at resorts on lobbyists' dime, noting that several members of his family are lobbyists themselves.
● NC-Sen: The NRA uses $1.7 million behind a spot that attacks the principle of constitutional rights when it hits Democrat Deborah Ross over her time as head of the state ACLU, claiming she supported sex offenders and opposed the right to self-defense.
● NH-Sen: The DSCC attacks Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte for supporting cuts to Medicare and Social Security.
● NV-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters puts $1.85 million behind two spots (in English here and in Spanish here) that attack Republican Joe Heck for standing with the right-wing Koch brothers on energy issues, instead of regular Nevadans.
● PA-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Toomey attacks Democrat Katie McGinty, claiming he'll stand up for taxpayers. The Senate Leadership Fund also hits McGinty for being a corrupt insider who cost Pennsylvania jobs.
● CA-07: The Congressional Leadership Fund uses scary images to argue Democratic Rep. Ami Bera supported the Iran nuclear deal, saying that it puts American national security at risk.
● CA-21: House Majority PAC attacks Republican Rep. David Valadao in Spanish over Trump and claims Democrat Emilio Huerta will fight for regular folks instead.
● CO-06: House Majority PAC highlights Republican Rep. Mike Coffman's right-wing record, particularly from before redistricting made his dark-red seat swingy in 2012, to argue he was an extremist even before Trump came on the scene.
● IL-10: House Majority PAC hits Republican Rep. Bob Dold! for supporting the insurance industry while also wanting to privatize Medicare and undermine women's health care.
● MN-02: The NRCC attacks Democrat Angie Craig over Obamacare.
● MN-03: Democrat Terri Bonoff once again hits Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen for standing by Donald Trump, although Bonoff doesn't specifically mention Trump's bragging about sexual assault on video.
● MN-08: Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan features a veteran who wasn't able to receive benefits until he sought out Nolan's help. Republican Stewart Mills attacks Nolan for supporting Clinton on taxes and the Iran deal.
The Congressional Leadership Fund attacks Nolan over ISIS, disgustingly criticizing him for wanting to bring refugees from "ISIS war zones" to America, which it of course doesn't acknowledge they are the civilians fleeing ISIS' death and destruction. They also attack Nolan over the Iran deal, and taken together, this is just the blatantly Islamophobic scaremongering we have come to expect from national Republican groups, especially considering Shia-dominated Iran and Sunni-dominated ISIS are mortal enemies.
● NE-02: House Majority PAC hits Republican Don Bacon for wanting to cut Medicare and Social Security. The NRCC attacks Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford for supporting national Democrats, particularly over releasing so-called "terrorists" from Guantanamo. However, that's particularly dishonest, since Ashford voted against Obama's proposal to help close down Guantanamo, even though he also opposed more partisan Republican efforts.
● NH-01: Republican Rep. Frank Guinta paints himself as a nonpartisan warrior against the state's opioid epidemic.
● NV-03: The Congressional Leadership Fund uses a literal puppet to lambast Democrat Jacky Rosen for being a pawn on the strings of Democratic insiders and special interests in Washington.
● NV-04: The DCCC once again hits Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy for completely standing behind Trump, replaying Hardy's awful comment that the disabled are "a drain on society," and adds that he wants to cut Social Security. Meanwhile, the NRCC hits back at Democrat Ruben Kihuen as a corrupt insider.
● NY-01: The Congressional Leadership Fund uses Islamophobic undertones to hit Democrat Anna Throne-Holst for wanting to give Guantanamo prisoners due process and supporting the Iran deal.
● NY-22: The NRCC once again uses ISIS to fearmonger against Democrat Kim Myers, promising Republican Claudia Tenney will stand up to Democrats while touting her as a conservative.
● NY-24: The Congressional Leadership Fund hits Democrat Colleen Deacon over ISIS, using an out-of-context quote where she says, "Obviously, I don't know what the answer is," but of course neglects the part of that interview where she actually went into detail about some possible solutions to combating terrorism.
● PA-16: Democrat Christina Hartman uses the full (though of course censored) clip of Trump's "grab them by the pussy" remarks, where he bragged about being able to commit sexual assault. Hartman also attacks Republican Lloyd Smucker with a clip of Smucker enthusiastically endorsing Trump.
● TX-23: The Congressional Leadership Fund slams Democratic ex-Rep. Pete Gallego for letting down veterans.
● VA-10: House Majority PAC excoriates Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock as too extreme, using her opposition to abortion rights and same-sex marriage, and her votes to defund Planned Parenthood. The Congressional Leadership Fund uses a frenetic, carnival-sounding ad to claim Democrat LuAnn Bennett wants to raise taxes.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
