He has Florida, North Carolina and Nevada leaning Trump. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
That seems insane given early voting information. To be clear, I think Hillary won the presidency last night with the numbers coming out of Nevada. She will comfortably win Nevada which will put her over the top.
But the same is also true for Florida. Record/historic Hispanic numbers in Florida early voting. More than double 2012. The voters are more disverse than ever. Many are considered “low propensity” voters with no party affiliation, which means virtually all of them will be voting for Hillary. We will be surprised by how much Hillary wins Florida.
In North Carolina, despite disgusting efforts by the state Republican Party to suppress the vote, Blacks are turning out and once again the Hispanic vote is up. I think Hillary wins North Carolina too but it likely will be closer than Florida and Nevada.
Nate, you need to incorporate early voting data into your model. It’s a new world.