One more wild theory coming at you in 4… 3… 2… 1…
For the last week or so, I’ve been trying to figure just what the differences between the Obama/McCain campaign and the Clinton/Trump campaign were, to see if I could point to any simple possibility. I had to start with the thesis that the overall makeup of the country hasn’t changed much over the last few years; the bigots and the saints are both there in about the same proportions that they were, and people haven’t changed their basic makeup in that time. Media coverage sucked about as much. So, then, wotthehell went on?
After a couple of days of this, while I was working on something else, a little voice from the back of my head said “We had Will I Am”. Lightbulb.
Barack Obama is a compelling, charismatic speaker. Add to that, that his campaign slogans were instantly memorable. John McCain had only Sarah Palin to offer for entertainment; otherwise his campaign was pretty much somnolence inducing. Better circuses: advantage Democrats
This time? I think Hillary Clinton may have been exactly the person we need in the office of President, but you had to think about what she said. Donald Trump — well, you couldn’t think about what he said, because it never made much sense, but you couldn’t look away from the train wreck. Better circuses: advantage Republicans.
Someone with a better memory of past campaigns will have to see if this applies to previous elections, but it feels right. I’d be interested in discussion of those in the comments.
So, the farther we get into information overload in all areas, the more it takes for a candidate to worm their way past the automatic barrier that most people have thrown up against having to learn One. More. Thing. that isn’t immediately relevant to survival.
Does this mean that GOTV isn’t relevant? That policy isn’t relevant? That bigotry and misogyny aren’t factors? I doubt it. I suspect that without an incredibly strong performance in every other category, this election would have been even more biased in Trump’s favor. This does suggest, though, that when voters are dealing with an information flood every day, week in and week out, that simply getting and keeping their attention is going to be more of a problem in every ensuing election.
And let’s quit talking about “low-information voters.” The majority of the electorate is neither stupid nor lazy; they’re simply not focused on politics, and can’t afford to take the time to learn enough to make an informed choice unless they see an immediate, personally threatening outcome as the alternative. It’s not laziness, it’s survival in all the other necessary arenas besides politics, where the information flow rate is overwhelming already.