This is not a long one.
It appears that a trend may be emerging.
Clinton has solidly outperformed polls in the South & Nevada. By 20+ in some cases.
|
Polling |
Actual |
Swing |
MS |
44 |
66.1 |
22.1 |
AL |
38 |
58.6 |
20.6 |
SC |
27.5 |
47.5 |
20 |
LA |
39 |
47.9 |
8.9 |
AR |
28.5 |
36.6 |
8.1 |
TN |
26 |
33.7 |
7.7 |
VA |
21.5 |
29.1 |
7.6 |
GA |
37 |
42.9 |
5.9 |
NV |
2.4 |
5.5 |
3.1 |
TX |
30.3 |
32 |
1.7 |
Sanders has outperformed polls everywhere else. The only caveat is that polling in the caucus states was quite spotty.
|
Polling |
Actual |
Swing |
MN |
-34 |
23.2 |
57.2 |
CO |
-28 |
18 |
46 |
KS |
-10 |
35 |
45 |
MI |
-21.4 |
1.5 |
22.9 |
OK |
-2 |
10.2 |
12.2 |
NH |
13.3 |
22.4 |
9.1 |
MA |
-6.7 |
-1.4 |
5.3 |
IA |
-4 |
-0.2 |
3.8 |
ME |
|
|
0 |
NE |
|
|
0 |
VT |
75 |
72.5 |
-2.5 |
Sanders also underwhelmed compared to his polling in Vermont. Sad!