Leading Off:
● OH-Sen: This always happens with Koch brothers ads: Their supposed third-party "validators" inevitably turn out to be frauds. Often, it's some alleged Obamacare victim whose claims completely fall apart under scrutiny. Other times, a purportedly neutral figure winds up being a Republican activist with a dull axe to grind. So, too, with Freedom Partners' latest spot in Ohio, which featured a self-described businessman named only "Keith" complaining about his state's plunging economic fortunes back when Democrat Ted Strickland was governor.
But as the Dayton Daily News has discovered, Keith didn't always feel this way. Back in 2011, in a piece about how it was growing hard to find workers to fill job openings (!), one Keith Kingrey, a vice-president of a precision-machined components company, had a very different story to tell:
"It seems like things are starting to pick up a little bit. It started picking up in 2010 pretty good. Last year was a pretty decent year. This year every quarter, it continues to get better and better."
2010—in other words, when Strickland was still governor. Yet now Kingrey claims in his Koch ad that Strickland "had to be doing something wrong for all these jobs to leave Ohio." But it sure sounds like the problem was quite the opposite: not too few job listings but too few machinists. And maybe, you know, none of this was Strickland's fault, considering the entire global economy went into free-fall following the banking crisis in the late aughts.
Oh, and one final detail: Kingrey, as it happens, has donated to Republican campaigns, including the NRCC and John Boehner. You were super surprised to learn that, weren't you?
Senate:
● CA-Sen: Several prominent state and national Democrats have endorsed Attorney General Kamala Harris over Rep. Loretta Sanchez, and Harris also earned Gov. Jerry Brown's backing on Monday. However, while Sanchez doesn't have the money or internal support that Harris brings to the table, it looks like the congresswoman will at least live to fight on until November. Polls have consistently shown Harris and Sanchez grabbing the two general election spots in the June 7 top-two primary, and a new SurveyUSA poll does nothing to go against the grain. SurveyUSA gives Harris and Sanchez 31 and 22 percent respectively, with ex-state GOP chairs Tom Del Beccaro and Duf Sundheim taking 9 each.
None of the Republicans have much money or name recognition, and early voting has been going on for a little while. Wealthy GOP donor Charles Munger Jr. is helping Sundheim, but the $50,000 he's spent for him so far won't go very far in this ultra-expensive state. Unless all the polls are wrong or wealthy Republicans go all-out for one Republican in the next two weeks, this is almost certainly going to be an all-Democratic general election.
● FL-Sen: The Senate Majority PAC just reserved $10.5 million in fall TV time in Florida, a state that will be absolutely inundated by political ads at the top of the ticket. Reservations can, of course, be broken, but this suggests that SMP either thinks Rep. Patrick Murphy will win the Democratic primary—or that Rep. Alan Grayson would somehow not prove unelectably toxic in a general election. It's probably not the latter.
● PA-Sen, WI-Sen : The U.S. Chamber of Commerce's new ad attacking Democrat Katie McGinty claims McGinty was "so polarizing, her departure from budget negotiations was heralded as a 'good thing.'" The cited source, though, is a pretty mild Philadelphia Daily News op-ed from columnist John Baer on the occasion of McGinty's resignation as Gov. Tom Wolf's chief of staff to run for Senate last year; nowhere in the piece did he use the word "polarizing."
Meanwhile, the Chamber's new spot in Wisconsin is just downright goofy, featuring cheapo fake animation that you might find in some random corner of the Internet where imagination outstrips Photoshop skills. The takeaway seems to be that you want to high-five GOP Sen. Ron Johnson on an assembly line, while Democrat Russ Feingold will steal your bags of money in a wheelbarrow.
The ads are both part of a reported $10 million, six-state buy. Supposedly the Wisconsin buy is for six figures, but maybe next time, they should try spending more of that on the ad itself.
Gubernatorial:
● IL-Gov: Unnamed Democratic operatives and labor leaders are talking up Sen. Dick Durbin as their preferred candidate to take on GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner in 2018, and Durbin is doing nothing to quash the speculation. It's very possible Durbin wants out: Last year, when Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced his retirement, Durbin, the number two-ranking Democrat in the chamber, was leapfrogged by Chuck Schumer to succeed Reid. What's more, while Durbin publicly backed Schumer's bid for the top spot, Schumer denied saying he'd support Durbin to stay in his current position, so remaining in the Senate might not look so appealing.
Durbin would indeed be a strong option to take on the wealthy Rauner, and he'd undoubtedly clear the field, though at age 71, he'd be embracing a bruising campaign instead of a smooth re-election in 2020 or a comfortable retirement. But with this fall's elections occupying everyone's attention, it's unlikely we'll hear anything from Durbin until some time after November.
● MO-Gov: Rich guy John Brunner is taking to the airwaves a full 10 weeks ahead of the Aug. 2 GOP primary. Brunner talks to the camera and brags about successfully fighting government regulators, which he says allowed him to create "good-paying Missouri jobs." Brunner then pledges to bring jobs to Missouri "because I know how to do it, and I've done it. And unlike politicians, I can't be bought." Dude, this is your second run for statewide office in four years. You're a politician.
● NJ-Gov: State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., the son of well-regarded former Gov. Tom Kean, made a credible run for Senate against Democrat Bob Menendez in 2006, and he's been a potential contender for all sorts of offices in a state where Team Red doesn't have much of a bench. But like Jerry Seinfeld, Kean's response to Republicans eagerly awaiting his next big race had always been "I choose not to run." However, in a recent radio interview, Kean insisted that he will seek statewide office again one day, though he says he's undecided about a 2017 gubernatorial campaign.
If Kean gets in, he's likely to face Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who appears to be getting ready to run. Termed-out Gov. Chris Christie once tried to oust Kean from his leadership post in the legislature, though Kean did later appear at a fundraiser for Christie's failed presidential campaign.
Of course, given how unpopular Christie is in the Garden State these days, Republicans may benefit from having a candidate who can convincingly distance himself from the governor. It's also possible that Kean will wait longer still and challenge his old nemesis Menendez, who sounds intent on seeking another term in 2018 even as he awaits trial on corruption charges. (Hat-tip: Zach C. Cohen)
● VA-Gov: According to CNN, Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is under investigation by the FBI regarding donations to his 2013 gubernatorial campaign that may have violated election laws. However, there are virtually no details in CNN's report that allege any specific wrongdoing, and McAuliffe's staff says he hasn't been contacted by investigators. More, we suppose, to come.
● WA-Gov: Republicans haven't won a gubernatorial race in Washington since 1980, and it looks like the Democratic winning streak will last a little longer. Gov. Jay Inslee has usually posted only so-so approval ratings during his tenure, but Team Red hasn't made unseating him much of a priority. While several Republicans mulled bids, Port of Seattle Commissioner Bill Bryant was the only one to enter the fray when last week's filing deadline closed (aside from the usual Some Dudes, including perennial contender Goodspaceguy).
Bryant does have some connections to influential business-oriented conservatives in Seattle, but his fundraising hasn't kept pace: As of April, Inslee held a $2.5 million to $626,000 cash-on-hand edge. While the DGA and the RGA have been airing ads or making fall TV reservations in several other states, they've passed over Washington so far. Elway Research is the only pollster to release any data here in the last few months, and their April survey gave Inslee a 48-36 lead.
Washington has become a reliably blue state in presidential years, which has helped Democrats hang on to the governorship for so long. While Inslee's predecessor, Democrat Christine Gregoire, was never incredibly popular, she still won a second term in 2008 by a 53-47 margin, thanks in part to Obama's decisive win in the state. In 2012, Gregoire's unpopularity and a strong campaign from Attorney General Rob McKenna gave Team Red a good shot to take the governor's mansion, but Obama's second dominant performance helped Inslee pull off a 52-48 victory.
A similar set of circumstances is likely to occur this year, especially with Donald Trump acting as more of a burden than a boon to Evergreen State Republicans. Inslee isn't a lock, but he's the clear favorite. Daily Kos Elections is therefore changing our rating from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
House:
● FL-18: On Monday, the crowded GOP primary for this competitive open seat mercifully got a little smaller, as farm owner Rick Roth announced that he would run for the state House instead. Roth never raised much cash, so his exit probably won't have a huge impact on this race. The frontrunners in the late August primary look like self-funding physician Mark Freeman (aka the guy who claimed that President Obama was trying to "drive a wedge between the races" by giving black people "free stuff") and Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron, the wife of incoming state Senate President Joe Negron. Several other candidates, however, are also running, including Brian Mast, a veteran who lost both his legs in Afghanistan and was recently the subject of a New York Times profile.
● FL-19: On Monday, former Vatican ambassador Francis Rooney entered the August primary for this safely red open seat. Rooney is not related to 17th District Rep. Tom Rooney, but he is wealthy and well-connected in GOP politics. However, Rooney's establishment credentials (he was a major donor to Jeb Bush's failed presidential bid) aren't exactly very appealing to primary voters in this day and age.
Rooney joins attorney and 2012 candidate Chauncey Goss in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Curt Clawson, though Goss, the son of former Rep. Porter Goss and a former aide to Paul Ryan, also has the dreaded mark of the establishment on him. Unsurprisingly, several other Cape Coral-area Republicans are considering getting in before the June 24 filing deadline. In recent days, Naples City Councilman Sam Saad said he was considering, and state Rep. Matt Caldwell said he'd decide by Wednesday. However, while State Board of Education member Tom Grady and state Rep. Dane Eagle both initially expressed interest, they took their names out of contention on Monday.
● FL-23: Law professor Tim Canova was already raising plenty of money for his primary challenge against Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and that was even before Bernie Sanders endorsed him over the weekend. Canova, a former Sanders advisor, said on Monday morning that he'd brought in an additional $250,000 since Sanders made his announcement.
However, Canova still has a tough task ahead of him if he wants to unseat Wasserman Schultz, who is also a strong fundraiser, in the late August primary for this safely blue South Florida seat. While Sanders, Canova, and their allies argue that Wasserman Schultz has unfairly favored Hillary Clinton in the presidential primary, that's unlikely to be a winning message in a district where Clinton defeated Sanders by a 69-30 margin. Maybe angry Sanders voters will show up in disproportionate numbers in the dog days of summer, but Canova will still have to find a message that will appeal to at least a significant minority of Clinton's supporters. Wasserman Schultz, meanwhile, has Barack Obama in her corner, something she isn't going hesitate to broadcast.
● NY-03: Retiring Rep. Steve Israel recently endorsed Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern in the four-way June 28 Democratic primary for this swing seat, and he's starring in Stern's new TV spot. Israel tells the audience that Stern will "stand up to tea party Republicans who try to defund Planned Parenthood and shut down the government" and pledges that Stern will protect Medicare and Social Security and make sure college is affordable.
● NC-13: The June 7 GOP primary pits 17 (!) candidates against one another, and there won't be a runoff to winnow the field. Roll Call's Simone Pathé deserves serious props for investigating this beyond-insane race, and local Republican operatives don't have any idea what will happen.
Gun range owner Ted Budd started this contest as an unknown, but the influential Club for Growth quickly took a liking to him. The Club has spent $285,000 on a spot for Budd, making him the only candidate to have any TV presence so far. However, Budd has never run for office before, and he's competing with several current or former local elected officials.
State Sen. Andrew Brock represents about 20 percent of the 13th in the legislature, and he's raised a decent amount of cash so far. State Rep. Julia Howard only represents a small portion of the seat, but she may benefit from being one of the few women in the contest; her role in passing the infamous anti-LGBT law known as HB2 should, sadly, also help her in a GOP primary. Local operatives also put Iredell County Register of Deeds Matt McCall and Guilford County Commissioner Hank Henning in the top tier.
Perennial candidate Vernon Robinson doesn't have many influential allies, but he has a following with the far-right from his past campaigns, and he could pull off a win in a crowded race. State Reps. John Blust and Harry Warren, Davie County Commissioner Dan Barrett, and eight other people are also competing. Romney won this open seat by 7 points, which makes it the bluest seat in North Carolina not already held by a Democrat—but still a very tough one for Democrats to pick up.
● NY-19: Businessman Andrew Heaney was recently hit by $500,000 worth of negative ads from New York Wins, a super PAC financed by hedge-fund manager and GOP donor Robert Mercer. Now ex-Assembly Minority Leader John Faso, Heaney's rival in the GOP primary for this swingy Hudson Valley seat, is getting in on the act. Faso has been running positive TV spots until now, but his new commercial echoes New York Wins' offering by characterizing Heaney as "a New York City millionaire." The Faso ad then does what so many negative ads do and gets all self-righteous by arguing that Heaney has been flinging "false attacks" before featuring a clip of Heaney admitting he donated to Barack Obama.
● VA-07: Over the weekend, freshman Rep. Dave Brat won the GOP nominating convention without any opposition, an accomplishment that was almost remarkable for being so unremarkable. Brat was, of course, the little-known college professor who shockingly unseated then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 Republican primary. Right after Brat's win, plenty of Richmond-area GOP politicians started getting mentioned as potential 2016 challengers.
However, Brat got to seek renomination at a party convention rather than needing to go through a primary. Such conventions tend to be dominated by ideological activists who are more friendly to tea partying politicians like Brat than to the sort of establishment figures who might have wanted to avenge Cantor's loss. Indeed, while Henrico Sheriff Mike Wade initially challenged Brat, he soon changed his plans when he learned he'd need to go through a convention. Brat won't have much trouble in November in this 56-44 Romney seat, and as long as he keeps his base happy, he should be secure for some time to come.
● VA-10: GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock, who faces an expensive race with real estate executive LuAnn Bennett in November, has reserved $1 million in TV time for the fall. House Majority PAC and the DCCC have reserved a total of $2.8 million for Team Blue in this 50-49 Romney seat.
● VA Redistricting: On Monday, the Supreme Court rejected a Republican challenge to Virginia's new court-ordered congressional map, finding that the GOP congressmen who brought the suit lacked standing to sue. As a result, the new map will remain in place for this year's elections, and likely the rest of the decade. The revised lines all but guarantee a Democratic pickup in the redrawn 4th District, where black voters, who had illegally been dispersed across surrounding seats, will now have the opportunity to elect a candidate of their choice.
● WA-03: Candidate filing closed in Washington on Friday, and the state has a list of contenders here. All of the candidates will compete on one ballot in the Aug. 2 top-two primary, and the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election.
Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler has been safe ever since she won this Vancouver-area seat in 2010. However, Romney only carried the 3rd 50-48, and this district could be competitive if it's a good year for Team Blue. State Rep. Jim Moeller kicked off a campaign here days before the filing deadline. Herrera Beutler has about $1 million in the bank, and she won't be easy to unseat. Daily Kos Elections currently rates this as Safe Republican, but we'll keep an eye out to see if Moeller is raising the type of money he'll need to win here, and if national Democrats wind up taking an interest in this contest.
● WA-04: Last cycle, Dan Newhouse defeated fellow Republican Clint Didier 51-49 in the general election for what was then an open seat. In a bit of a surprise, Didier kicked off another campaign here just before candidate filing closed. Didier, a former NFL player, has also unsuccessfully run for office in 2010 and 2012. Newhouse only had $285,000 in the bank at the end of March, so Didier may have caught him off guard.
However, Newhouse outspent Didier in 2014, and he should be able to do so again now that he has incumbency on his side. Newhouse also doesn't appear to have done anything to upset voters in this conservative seat, and he should have an easier time winning over Democrats than the tea partying Didier. One other Republican and two Democrats are running in the August top-two primary, but Romney won this inland seat 60-38, and there's a good chance that both Newhouse and Didier will advance to the general election again.
● WA-07: Longtime Rep. Jim McDermott's retirement has set off a competitive race in his safely blue Seattle seat. State Rep. Brady Walkinshaw started running even before McDermott announced his departure, which gave him a fundraising head start. Several local power players are also in Walkinshaw's corner.
However, state Sen. Pramila Jayapal's fundraising spiked after she received an endorsement from Bernie Sanders. Jayapal also has earned a few major labor endorsements, with the United Food and Commercial Workers backing her in February and the Washington State Labor Council supporting her over the weekend. Most of Jayapal's legislative seat is in the nearby 9th Congressional District, though, which means most of the people who've voted for her in the past can't do so now.
The third major Democratic candidate is King County Commissioner Joe McDermott. McDermott has the backing of a few notable establishment figures, most prominently King County Executive Dow Constantine. However, while McDermott is not related to the retiring congressman, he may actually benefit from voters who think they're actually the same guy. Joe McDermott's campaign recently released a poll showing him with significantly more name recognition than Walkinshaw or Jayapal; while his pollster argued that voters knew that Joe was not the incumbent, there's still a good chance that the commissioner will pick up some votes thanks to this happy coincidence.
Ex-Burien Mayor Arun Jhaveri and one other minor Democrat are also running, as are two Republicans. Obama carried this seat 79-18, and odds are that Democrats will grab both general election spots in the August top-two primary.
● WA-08: The 2012 round of redistricting made Republican Rep. Dave Reichert's seat much redder than before, though Obama still won here 50-48. Longtime TV sports anchor Tony Ventrella is running for Team Blue, and he does bring some good name recognition to the table. However, Ventrella says he doesn't plan to raise much cash, which is troubling. If there's a wave, this seat could come into play, but Daily Kos Elections currently rates the general as Safe Republican.
Mayoral:
● New York, NY Mayor: New York City's mayoral races always take place in odd-numbered years, which means that "off-year" developments are always overshadowed by presidential elections, but next year's contest is already quietly getting underway. The central question is just what sort of challenge incumbent Mayor Bill de Blasio will face in the Democratic primary. De Blasio won office in 2013 riding a wave of progressive hopes and dreams, but his tenure has been marred by continual stumbles that have angered both allies on the left and critics on the right. He's also engaged in a never-ending feud with Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has always seemed to get the better of the mayor.
De Blasio's latest blunder involves his efforts to help Democrats take back the state Senate in 2014, allegedly by using large donations to local party committees that were then transferred to candidates in an effort to evade contribution limits. His political operation is now under investigation, and it appears that Cuomo himself had a hand in bringing this inquiry about. Making matters worse, de Blasio's poll numbers are at record lows.
But despite all this, as a report this month in the Wall Street Journal explained, de Blasio won't necessarily be easy to beat, thanks to his strong support from organized labor and from black voters. (You may recall his famous campaign ad three years ago featuring his biracial son, Dante.) One of de Blasio's most prominent potential intra-party challengers is Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who is a supporter of the charter school movement, which de Blasio has opposed. But Jeffries now claims that he was always "very unlikely to run for mayor" and adds that "if anything, the chances have decreased in recent weeks."
Others, though, may be more interested. Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. has been accepting contributions at the citywide (rather than the lower borough-wide) limit and recently held a fundraiser with Cuomo. Meanwhile, says the Journal, City Comptroller Scott Stringer has been privately suggesting he might run, though he's apparently also said he won't make any announcement until after the presidential election. DNAinfo runs through a number of other Democratic names as well, ranging from the plausible (wealthy real estate developer Don Peebles) to the amusing (Jimmy McMillan, the "Rent Is Too Damn High" guy).
And while Republicans dominated New York's mayoralty for 20 years (starting with Rudy Giuliani in 1993, then giving way to Michael Bloomberg, who later became an independent), the GOP probably doesn't have much hope unless they nominate someone with a lot of money and the Democratic candidate winds up badly damaged. But at least one office-holder is thinking about trying: Eric Ulrich, one of just three Republicans on the 51-member city council, has formed an exploratory committee.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.