On Tuesday, Bernie Sanders endorsed eight Democrats running for state legislatures around the country. Sanders had previously helped four U.S. House candidates raise large sums, and many activists had clamored for the senator to use his massive email list to boost other downballot Democrats. This latest octet is likely to benefit handsomely from Bernie's intervention. They’re an array of committed progressives, many with compelling stories. Seven of the eight picks are women and/or people of color. But unfortunately, Sanders has picked a very low-leverage set of races to get involved in.
What do we mean by leverage? When talking about legislative endorsements, we have a few interconnected questions in mind. First, does the endorsed candidate have a chance to either beat a Republican incumbent, pick up a Republican-held open seat, or hold a potentially vulnerable Democratic seat? And if that's the case, then will that candidate’s victory help us get closer to taking over a chamber currently controlled by Republicans, or help us protect a chamber that's at risk of falling to the GOP? Alternatively, if the seat in question is safely blue, is the endorsed candidate clearly more progressive than his or her opponents in the Democratic primary?
These are crucial factors because Democrats can only enact progressive change when we’re in charge, whether that’s in Congress or at the state legislative level. But at most, just two of Sanders' eight picks meet these criteria. Let’s run through each of them one by one.
● State Rep. Carol Ammons (Illinois HD-103): Ammons is the first African American to represent the college town of Champaign in the legislature, and she won a surprise victory in the 2014 Democratic primary over a better-funded opponent backed by state House speaker Mike Madigan. But Democrats hold a huge 71-41 majority in the state House, and Ammons' seat voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a 68-28 margin in 2012, making it safely Democratic. What's more, the Illinois primary took place in March, and Ammons doesn't even face a Republican opponent this fall.
● State Rep. Justin Bamberg (South Carolina HD-90): Bamberg first attracted national attention as the attorney representing the family of North Charleston police shooting victim Walter Scott, and gained further attention in January when he switched his endorsement from Hillary Clinton to Sanders. In South Carolina, though, Democrats face a massive 77-46 deficit in the state House. That scenario's not going to change any time soon, but even if it could, helping Bamberg wouldn't close the gap, since he's an incumbent. However, Bamberg did only prevail 51-49 in the general election two years ago, and his seat is the most marginal on this list (Obama won it 53-47).
● State Rep. Terry Alexander (South Carolina HD-59): Alexander, another incumbent, presents the same issue as Bamberg, and like Ammons, he represents a safely Democratic seat and has no GOP opposition in November.
● State Rep. David Bowen (Wisconsin AD-10): The GOP holds a strong 63-36 majority in Wisconsin's state Assembly, though it’s possible Team Blue could make massive gains in a wave year (Democrats held the chamber as recently as 2010). But again, Bowen's an incumbent, and he, too, represents a rock-solid Democratic seat: It went 90-10 for Obama, so no Republican could ever win it.
● State Rep. Joe Salazar (Colorado HD-31): Salazar is probably the best pick on this list, since Democrats only have a narrow 34-31 lead in the chamber, and Salazar won an extremely tight 51-49 victory in 2014. However, the closeness of his prior race had much more to do with the GOP wave that year than the lean of his district, which Obama carried 58-40. Republicans might try to make a play here, but with presidential-year turnout, Salazar is favored to win another term.
● Clara Hart (South Dakota HD-06): Hart (and the two others that follow on this list) are non-incumbents, and Hart is also the only candidate who is directly going after a GOP-held seat. But unsurprisingly, Democrats are in a deep hole in South Dakota and have no realistic shot at taking over the chamber anytime soon. And this district is dark red: Romney won in 60-38, so Hart's chances are slim. Hart has a remarkable story, though: Born in Mozambique, she spent three years living as a refugee in Tanzania. One of her Republican opponents, Isaac Latterell, was a sponsor of anti-refugee legislation.
● Jane Kim (California SD-11): Kim is running in an open, dark blue seat in San Francisco that is guaranteed to stay in Democratic hands. However, Kim does face a competitive race with fellow Democrat Scott Wiener. Both candidates are liberal by national standards, but Kim identifies with the progressive wing in San Fransisco politics, while Wiener is closer to the local moderates; Wiener has also a large financial advantage over Kim, and Sanders’ followers' money can help close that gap. While this contest won’t affect the Democrats’ 26-14 majority in the Senate, a Kim victory could help move the chamber’s Democratic caucus to the left, making this the one other race that fits any of our criteria above. (Interestingly, Kim serves on the national leadership committee of Korean Americans for Hillary. UPDATE: Kim’s name has since been removed from that site. It’s not clear whether she was incorrectly listed in the first place or if someone’s mind changed.)
● Chris Pearson (Vermont SD-Chittenden-1): This multi-member district elects six senators, so the picture here is a bit cloudy. Only one of those six is a Republican, though, and she's retiring. This district voted for Obama 71-28, so Democrats are likely to sweep all six spots. And on top of that, Democrats and their Progressive Party allies hold 21 of the 30 seats in the chamber.
Bernie’s heart is in the right place in wanting to assist Democratic candidates, but to truly help progressives move the ball down the field, his next set of endorsements should focus on GOP-held seats in chambers where Republican majorities are at risk, like the state Senates in Colorado, Nevada, or New York. There are plenty of opportunities. We just need to seize them.
Jeff Singer and David Jarman contributed to this piece.