HYPOTHETICAL SEQUENCE OF EVENTS NEXT MONTH
July 21, 2016 — Donald Trump’s acceptance speech tonight at the RNC convention in Cleveland was largely overshadowed by the breaking news that Hillary Clinton has selected Elizabeth Warren as her choice for Vice President. Just a few minutes after Trump began speaking, the news broke out online and soon most of the television networks had added a scrolling banner at the bottom of the screen confirming the news. While unprecedented, this clear attempt to draw the attention away from the Republican nominee was largely successful, and several Democrats were quick to draw the analogy to John McCain, who announced his Vice Presidential pick in 2008 just hours after Barack Obama’s acceptance speech in Denver that year. In a statement released during his speech, Senator Warren announced that she had spoken to Hillary on Wednesday night and accepted her offer for the post, shortly after learning who the Republicans had selected as their own Vice Presidential candidate. The two candidates are expected to appear together Friday afternoon at a rally held in Unity, NH. The campaign stated they invited Bernie Sanders to attend, but he politely declined.
Warren said she was honored to have the chance to prove to America that our country’s values are Democratic values and show the working people of America the Democratic party is their home, by bringing both the progressive wing and moderate wing of the party together against Donald Trump. While some progressives have advocated changing their voter registration and leaving the party, she told them her leading role in the Senate, and now on to the White House, is proof they are welcome. Meanwhile, the RNC released a statement calling the choice “Cynical pandering by Crooked Hillary, who plans to use the Presidency as a personal hedge fund to repay her Socialist Wall Street donors”. When Trump coincidentally mentioned Warren in his speech, delegates erupted in a mock war cry. John McCain, when reached for comment, mentioned that he will run as an Independent next time.
Earlier today, Warren submitted a letter of resignation to the Secretary of State of Massachusetts, William Galvin, to inform him that she will have to leave her seat in the Senate as of the end of the 2016 session, effective as of December 19, 2016. According to Massachusetts state law, a special election must be held not less than 145 but not more than 160 days after this notification is made, although in a twist that might not have been lost on the Massachusetts Senator, the special election can not be held before the effective date listed in the resignation letter. Since 145 days from today is December 13, 2016 and 160 days from today is December 28, 2016 the only possible dates for the special election would be December 20, 2016 or December 27, 2016 but choosing the 27th is unlikely and choosing the 20th would mean the primary six weeks prior would actually be held on the same day as the general election, November 8, 2016. While such a dual election is unusual, it’s likely MA voters would simply be able to fill out two ballots, one for the general and then one for the primary, assuming there is a primary. In 2013, Congressman Stephen Lynch was one of two Dem candidates.
One advantage of a December 20th special election is that the winner would likely be certified by the governor in around two weeks, like Scott Brown was certified in two weeks by Deval Patrick in 2013, so the special election winner will likely be sworn in along with the rest of the Senate on January 6th. That only leaves two weeks for Republican Governor Charlie Baker to provide an interim appointee, and during those two weeks the Senate will be out of session, barring any unexpected budget crisis. It’s not clear if that brief interim appointee would even bother taking a trip to Washington for a visit, and whoever Baker chooses will be ineligible to run against the Democratic candidate for the post.
The challenge for both parties will be getting their voters back to the polls for the special election in the days before Christmas, however Democrats may already have a candidate, Stephen Lynch, who lost the special Senate election primary in 2013 to Ed Markey but ran a strong campaign showing his likely interest in the job. Other names mentioned include Deval Patrick and Joe Kennedy III, but the former governor has previously indicated he is happy where here is, in the private sector where he works now at Bain Capital in Boston, and Kennedy has only been in Congress for three years so far. Either way, it’s shaping up to be an interesting election season. Now to news about Trump’s speech.