On Tuesday, the Indiana Republican Party’s 22-member central committee met and selected Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb as the GOP’s new gubernatorial nominee. Holcomb had the support of Gov. Mike Pence, who dropped his re-election campaign in order to become Donald Trump’s running mate, as well as Sen. Dan Coats and state Senate President David Long. Holcomb defeated Reps. Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita, as well as state Sen. Jim Tomes; according to Brian Howey, the first ballot was a close fight between Holcomb and Brooks, with Rokita taking very little support and Tomes none.
Holcomb will now face Democrat John Gregg, the former speaker of the Indiana state House. Gregg had been running against Pence for over a year, and he had $5.8 million in his campaign war chest at the end of June. Holcomb starts out the race with little money, but that may change quickly: Pence is permitted to transfer his $7 million warchest to Holcomb, and Holcomb has hinted the governor will end up doing just that.
Update: However, Politico’s Kevin Robillard reports that Pence may not be able to transfer much of his warchest to Holcomb. According to legal experts, Pence is subject to new FEC regulations now that he’s a federal candidate. Robillard writes that “[f]ederal campaign finance laws impose limits on political giving by federal candidates and officeholders, and FEC opinions from 2003 and 2007 made clear to two state-turned-federal candidates that they could not make unlimited campaign contributions from their old state accounts, even though it was usually permitted under state law.”
Pence could send up to $2,700 per donor (the federal donation limit) to Holcomb, and the new GOP nominee likely can inherit the $1.5 million donation the Republican Governors Association gave Pence. (The RGA can also send even more money to Holcomb to help him hit the ground running.) However, much of Pence’s campaign account may be out of reach for him.
Holcomb’s victory can be traced in large part to his pedigree: He was a state party chair and a top staffer for Coats, and his win on Tuesday demonstrates that he has a strong relationship with the GOP establishment. However, Holcomb ran for his old boss’s Senate seat earlier this cycle and it went poorly. He entered the race early, but that did nothing to scare off Rep. Todd Young, who was competing for the same type of establishment voters and donors.
Holcomb wound up raising very little cash during his campaign and could gain no traction against Young; he eventually dropped out after Lt. Gov. Sue Ellsperman resigned and Pence offered him the job. Maybe Holcomb will have better luck now that he’s the GOP nominee instead of just another primary candidate, but his forgettable Senate adventure does not demonstrate that he’s a strong campaigner—at least, outside of races where 100 percent of the electorate knows him.
As for November, the outlook is unclear. Indiana is usually a reliably red state in presidential elections, and Hillary Clinton and her allies have made no moves to flip its 11 electoral votes. However, many Hoosiers have shown a willingness to split their ballots: Mitt Romney carried the state 54-44 in 2012, but Pence only beat Gregg 50-47 that same year. Indeed, an internal poll from Brooks showed Gregg beating Holcomb 42-34 even as Trump was carrying Indiana by a strong 50-36 margin. And while Gregg has been on the campaign trail all cycle long, the largely unknown Holcomb still has to introduce himself to the state.
While Pence’s serious flaws made this race competitive, Holcomb’s own weaknesses, while different, mean that the GOP has definitely not locked this race down. Daily Kos Elections is maintaining our rating of Lean Republican thanks to Indiana’s traditional partisan tilt, but a Democratic victory is by all means possible.
P.S: Both Rokita and Brooks have pledged to seek re-election to the House now that they won’t be running for governor. In both congressional races, new GOP nominees will be chosen by a caucus of local precinct chairs, and while some Republicans sounded interested in running if Rokita or Brooks had gotten bumped up to the gubernatorial race, no one sounds likely to challenge them now that they’re turning around and seeking re-election. Both districts (the 4th and the 5th) are safely red.