Leading Off:
● OH-Sen, NC-Sen, MO-Sen: Ruh-roh. According to Politico, Karl Rove's One Nation just cancelled a $3 million reservation in Ohio, apparently on account of GOP Sen. Rob Portman's lead in the polls. If Republicans are already feeling so chuffed about Portman's chances of holding on that they're diverting resource elsewhere, that's a very worrisome sign for Democrat Ted Strickland. The "good" news, such as it is, is that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce also just announced that it would launch a "seven-figure" buy for a new TV ad against Strickland, attacking him for leaving just 89 cents in the state's rainy-day fund. So it's possible that these moves just represent some reshuffling of Republican money … but that's not the kind of hope you want to find yourself clinging to.
And there's at least one reason to think this actually is a strategic redeployment: One Nation is simultaneously returning to Missouri (with a reported $1 million expenditure) and kicking off a campaign in North Carolina. In fact, this foray represents the first major spending activity by any outside organization in the Tar Heel State's Senate race-and that is legitimately good news for Democrats.
That might seem paradoxical, but when you're dealing with a contest as high-profile as a Senate race, the last thing you want is for your opponents to ignore you because they don't think you're a serious threat. Sometimes, of course, a disregarded challenger can slip through and win a House seat, but for the Senate, that's all but unheard of. For the same reason Strickland should be worried that the GOP might no longer care about him, Deborah Ross should be thrilled that it finally does.
But Democrats have to respond accordingly to have any shot, and their lack of interest so far has been baffling. Polling averages show GOP Sen. Richard Burr with just a 40-37 edge on Ross, putting him well below the 50 percent mark. And with Hillary Clinton's burgeoning fortunes, North Carolina looks increasingly at risk for Republicans. So why wouldn't Democrats at least want to take a flyer on Ross? Indeed, if Strickland continues to fade, they'll need to find somewhere else to compete, and this race is the obvious choice. What's the holdup?
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: A Republican firm called Data Orbital has released a new poll of the Aug. 30 GOP primary that finds Sen. John McCain with a wide 50-29 lead on his challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward. Data Orbital says it did not conduct the survey on behalf of any particular client, but the firm's president, former state GOP political director George Khalaf, included a very laudatory statement about McCain, so we know where his preferences lie.
Ward responded by dismissing the poll, claiming instead, "We are winning on the ground"—loserspeak, more or less. And it's especially hard to wave away the results when a late June poll from NMB Research for Arizona Grassroots Action, a super PAC supporting McCain, found a very similar 47-22 lead for the incumbent. Interestingly, NMB mentions some previously unreleased numbers from January that had McCain up just 47-40, which suggests his attacks on Ward have been effective.
● CO-Sen, FL-Sen, NC-Sen: Marist released a second batch of swing state polls on Friday, and boy are they gaudy for Democrats. Here's how the Senate races shape up, along with trendlines and presidential results:
CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc): 53, Darryl Glenn (R): 38 (July: 53-38) (41-29 Clinton)
FL-Sen: Marco Rubio (R-inc): 49, Patrick Murphy (D): 43 (July: 47-44) (41-36 Clinton)
NC-Sen: Deborah Ross (D): 46, Richard Burr (R): 44 (July: 48-41) (45-36 Clinton)
Marist also put Hillary Clinton up 43-31 in Virginia, capping off just how eye-popping these results are. But the one that really stands out is North Carolina. You could believe that Colorado and Virginia, where the Clinton campaign has (at least for now) stopped advertising, are turning into routs. But a 9-point advantage in the Tar Heel State? That seems impossible. It would also represent the first independent poll to give Ross a lead; aside from a late June survey from Democratic pollster GQR that also found Ross up 2, Burr has always been in front. That doesn't mean things haven't changed, but it does mean we should await further confirmation.
Florida's Senate race is the one dark spot for Democrats, but just as it's hard to credit those North Carolina numbers, it's likewise difficult to imagine that Rubio will run 11 points ahead of the ticket, especially since other polls don't show anywhere near that kind of separation. While you may be sick of hearing us say this, this is all a good reminder of why you should always check out the averages of all available polling, rather than rely on one single data point.
● CO-Sen: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's newest ad features a corn farmer praising the senator for working with Republicans to pass a farm bill.
● IN-Sen: The other day, the Senate Leadership Fund said it would soon launch a $1 million campaign against Democrat Evan Bayh, and now we have a copy of their ad. The message is exactly the same as the one deployed by the NRSC in a recent spot: Bayh only pretends to be bipartisan; in fact, he's an Obama stooge who "cast the deciding vote for Obamacare." It's probably the right line of attack, but the question is whether it can actually overcome Bayh's considerable reputation.
● NV-Sen: The NRSC is running another ad attacking Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto over her support for the Iran nuclear deal. The committee ran an ad on the same topic last year. Meanwhile, AFSCME is tossing a new ad into their reported $1.4 million buy targeting GOP Rep. Joe Heck. Like their prior spot, it goes after Heck for wanting to privatize Social Security.
Gubernatorial:
● MO-Gov: In his second TV ad, Democrat Chris Koster talks about how he prosecuted "crooked Wall Street banks and Medicaid fraud" as attorney general, "returning over $500 million" to Missourians.
● NC-Gov: A new RGA ad whales on Democrat Roy Cooper for failures at a state crime lab, which it says fell under his purview as attorney general and led to "wrongful convictions and criminals going unpunished." It might be the first time we've ever seen Republicans worry about anyone getting wrongfully convicted.
● NH-Gov: Executive Councilor Chris Sununu rolled out his first ad of the GOP primary just the other day, but it turns out that it's backed by a piddly $14,000 buy. By contrast, Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, who also released an introductory spot, claims he's going to spend $500,000, but we'll see. No other Republicans appear to have started advertising yet, Meanwhile, Democrat Colin Van Ostern, who also serves on the Executive Council, has reserved $212,000 in airtime ahead of the Sept. 13 primary.
House:
● FL-10: Michael Bloomberg's super PAC, Independence USA, is running a new ad on behalf of Val Demings, featuring footage of her speaking at the Democratic National Convention last month where she described her background as Orlando's first female police chief.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.