Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/26

Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news.

Please note: This is a 2016 Democratic presidential primary-free zone.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 3:50:00 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

ME-02: On behalf of Democrat Emily Cain, Normington Petts is out with a poll showing her tied with Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin 45-45. Back in June, Normington Petts also showed an identical 45-45 tie. However, this survey gives Donald Trump a 44-40 lead in Maine’s 2nd District, while the last poll did not include presidential numbers.

A few weeks ago, a SurveyUSA poll gave Poliquin a 50-45 edge, while Trump held a 47-37 lead in the 2nd. Aside from a UNH poll that had a tiny sample size of 231, which is below the 300-person threshold that we consider minimally acceptable, there have not been any other recent surveys of this contest. However, a poll from the Maine People’s Resource Center also had Trump ahead 47-42 in this district. The NRCC’s commercials have also tied Cain to Hillary Clinton, while Cain has not used Trump against Poliquin; in fact, a Cain spot even touted that she worked with GOP Gov. Paul LePage, a prominent Trump ally.

Obama won this seat 53-44, but both the polls and the messaging from both sides suggest that, at the very least, Trump will not be a liability for Poliquin. It wouldn’t have been easy for Cain to unseat the well-funded Poliquin even if we were certain Clinton was winning here, especially since Mainers have been more than willing to vote Democratic for president while backing their Republican incumbents downballot. It’s going to be even tougher if Cain needs to convince a significant number of Trump voters to also back her over Poliquin. The good news at least is that both this poll and the SurveyUSA one find that Cain is doing better than Clinton. Daily Kos Elections rates this seat as Lean Republican.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 4:14:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

LA-Sen: On behalf of GOP Rep. John Fleming, JMC Analytics takes a look at the November jungle primary, and they’re the first pollster to release a survey showing GOP state Treasurer John Kennedy not taking one of the top two spots he needs to reach the December runoff. Their release also includes numbers from a July poll they didn’t release until now. (Frustratingly, the memo doesn’t say that the poll was done for Fleming, and that information is only contained in JMC’s url.)

Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell (D): 17 (15)

Rep. Charles Boustany (R): 17 (16)

Rep. John Fleming (R): 15 (8)

State Treasurer John Kennedy (R): 13 (18)

Attorney Caroline Fayard (D): 12 (8)

2014 Senate candidate Rob Maness (R): 4 (5)

Ex-Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke (R): 4 (N/A)

Some early polls showed Kennedy far ahead of his many opponents, though nowhere close to taking the majority of the vote he’d need to win without a runoff. A few recent polls do show Kennedy still in first, but not in a dominant position. However, this is the first poll that’s shown Fleming, a favorite of anti-establishment Republicans like the Club for Growth, anywhere close to first or second place, much less ahead of Kennedy. However, we still don’t have many polls to work with, and in a race this crowded, we may just have no idea where things really stand until November.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 6:05:18 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

VA-10: On behalf of Democrat LuAnn Bennet, Expedition Strategies released a survey on Saturday giving Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock a small 47-45 lead. An unreleased May poll had Comstock up 50-40. This sample shows Hillary Clinton defeating Donald Trump 49-35. Romney carried this district 51-49, but this very affluent and very well-educated Northern Virginia seat is full of the exact type of voters who would reject Trump.

Comstock’s team dismissed this poll by noting that, in late September of 2014, Team Blue released a poll showing Comstock with just a 41-39 lead over Democrat John Foust, yet Comstock went on win 56-40. However, Comstock’s allies at Congressional Leadership Fund almost immediately released their own poll two years ago that showed her up 46-34, but Team Red hasn’t responded accordingly yet. (The NRCC did conduct a poll here around Sept. 13, so it’s not like they don’t have data.)

However, this Bennet poll does still acknowledge that Comstock has the edge. In 2013, while she was serving in the state House of Delegates, Comstock did win re-election 51-49 while Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe was carrying her district 52-42, so she does have practice running far ahead of the top of the ticket. Comstock is also likely to have a clear financial edge. At the end of June, Comstock held a huge $2.26 million to $872,000 cash-on-hand lead against Bennet, and national Republicans have also reserved $3.7 million here to the Democrats’ $2.7 million. The state AFL-CIO also decided not to back Bennet, which could cause her problems in November. Daily Kos Elections rates this seat as Lean Republican.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 6:40:44 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

WV-Gov: Democratic attorney general nominee Doug Reynolds is out with a Garin-Hart-Yang poll, and it also contains a question on the gubernatorial race. GHY gives Democrat Jim Justice a 46-33 lead over Republican Bill Cole, with Mountain Party candidate and 1996 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlotte Pitt taking 7. There haven’t been many polls here, but even a recent survey for the state GOP gave Justice a 44-42 lead. This sample gives Donald Trump a 60-28 lead in West Virginia, which is actually larger than the 57-30 edge the GOP’s poll found. The poll finds Reynolds trailing Attorney General Patrick Morrissey, a potential 2018 Senate candidate, 37-36.

Justice is the richest man in West Virginia, so he doesn’t need any outside help. However, Cole’s allies reportedly have been reluctant to air ads for him. The Charleston Gazette-Mail's Phil Kabler recently wrote that the after months of silence, the RGA spent just $12,000 on an ad in August only to disappear from the airwaves again. However, the RGA is back with a commercial tying Justice to Hillary Clinton and other national Democrats, while promoting Cole as someone who will “make us great again.” (Presumably, they mean that Cole will make West Virginia great again, not the Republican Governors Association.) There’s no word on the size of the buy, so we can’t tell if this is a serious ad campaign against Justice, or if the RGA is still pinching pennies here.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 7:15:21 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

IA-03: Republican Rep. David Young is out with a Tarrance Group poll giving him a strong 52-37 lead over Democrat Jim Mowrer; presidential numbers were not included in this release. We have seen a few other polls here and unfortunately, the news hasn’t been any better for Team Blue. A July survey from WPA Opinion Research on behalf of American Wind Action had Young up 45-32, while earlier this month, a RABA Research poll for Simpson College had Young leading 50-35. Mowrer and his allies have yet to release any contradictory data.

National Democrats have reserved at least $2 million in this Des Moines seat, while the GOP has reserved $2.4 million, so both parties are at least acting like this is much closer than the polls show. However, if Donald Trump continues to poll well in Iowa, then this 51-47 Obama seat may be a fridge too far for the blue team. Daily Kos Elections currently rates the general as a Tossup.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 8:01:02 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

IL-Sen: National Republicans have almost completely avoided spending to help the very endangered Sen. Mark Kirk, and the DSCC reserved just $2 million to aid Democrat Tammy Duckworth months ago. However, the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the NRSC will launch a $750,000 buy to boost Kirk.

Lynn Sweet cites an anonymous source who says that the buy “will show that the NRSC, the Senate GOP political operation, believes that Kirk has a chance to win in Illinois,” even though Hillary Clinton is expected to do well here. Of course, $750,000 isn’t a massive amount in a Senate race, especially in a state as expensive as Illinois. If the GOP truly believes that Kirk can pull off an upset, they’ll need to put their money where their mouth is.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 9:26:43 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer

Polls: If you stack all of today’s polls on top of one another, you can climb to the Moon.

• CO-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R) for Breitbart: Darryl Glenn (R) 45, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43 (41-37 Trump)

• CO-Sen: CNN/ORC: Bennet (R-inc): 53, Glenn (R) 43 (42-41 Trump)

• FL-Sen: Cherry Communications (R) for Florida Chamber of Commerce: Marco Rubio (R-inc) 46, Patrick Murphy (D) 42 (43-41 Clinton) 

• IA-Sen: Loras College: Chuck Grassley (R-inc) 54, Patty Judge (D) 37 (38-38 presidential tie) (June: 46-45 Grassley)

• NC-Sen: High Point University: Richard Burr (R-inc) 45, Deborah Ross (D) 43 (43-42 Clinton)

• NC-Sen: Meredith College: Ross (D) 38, Burr (R-inc) 35 (38-35 Clinton)

• NC-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D): Burr (R-inc) 46, Ross (D) 30 (44-41 Clinton) (June: 38-36 Ross)

• NC-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R) for Breitbart: Ross (D) 48, Burr (R-inc) 39 (44-43 Clinton)

• NC-Gov: High Point University: Roy Cooper (D) 50, Pat McCrory (R-inc) 41 (43-42 Clinton)

• NC-Gov: Meredith College: McCrory (R-inc) 41, Cooper (D) 39 (43-42 Clinton)

• NH-Sen: ARG: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) 47, Maggie Hassan (D) 47 (46-42 Clinton) (June: 51-42 Ayotte)

• NH-Gov: ARG: Chris Sununu (R) 45, Colin Van Ostern (D) 44 (46-42 Clinton)

• NV-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D): Joe Heck (R) 47, Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 41 (44-43 Clinton) (Sept.: 49-47 Masto)

• OH-Sen: TargetSmart for William & Mary: Rob Portman (R-inc) 47, Ted Strickland (D) 32 (43-40 Clinton)

• OH-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D): Portman (R-inc) 51, Strickland (D) 34 (41-39 Trump) (June: 43-40 Strickland)

• PA-Sen: CNN/ORC: Katie McGinty (D) 49, Pat Toomey (R-inc) 46 (45-44 Clinton)

• PA-Sen: Muhlenberg: Toomey (R-inc) 41, McGinty (D) 40 (40-38 Clinton) (Sept.: 43-38 McGinty)

• PA-Sen: Harper Polling (R): Toomey (R-inc) 42, McGinty (D) 42 (45-43 Clinton) (March: 48-34 Toomey)

• PA-Sen: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D): Toomey (R-inc) 45, McGinty (D) 43 (46-38 Clinton) (June: 46-38 Toomey)

•PA-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R) McGinty (D) 43, Toomey (R-inc) 39 (46-43 Clinton)

Weirdly, while some of Team Blue’s better numbers came from GOP pollster Cherry Communications, the Democratic group Greenberg Quinlan Rosner left Senate Democrats with a big old shit sandwich. But predictably, Gravis still seems to be calling into a strange alternate universe that does not remotely resemble our own.

Florida Democrat Patrick Murphy’s 46-42 deficit to Sen. Marco Rubio in the Cherry Communions poll isn’t going to have him jumping for joy, but it’s one of his better results lately. The HuffPost Pollster average gives Rubio a 48-42 edge.

It’s not clear why the Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner is releasing such awful numbers for their own party, especially since their presidential numbers aren’t even that good for Hillary Clinton. It’s even stranger that GQR has North Carolina Senate Democrat Deborah Ross losing to Sen. Richard Burr by a massive 46-30 margin, a result like no one else has found. Even stranger still, GQR themselves found Ross ahead in June at a time when Burr constantly led.

It’s extremely hard to believe that Ross is trailing this badly and no one else is seeing it, especially since both parties are spending millions in this contest; it’s even tougher to believe that Ross just utterly collapsed in the last few months. As we always say when confronted with a weird poll, throw it in the pile, look at the averages (in this case, Burr leads 45-43), and move on.

Monday, Sep 26, 2016 · 10:47:39 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf

Ad Roundup:

• FL-Sen: The NRSC continues to hit Democrat Patrick Murphy over the controversy regarding his résumé. In this spot, an actor auditioning to play Murphy reads lines about Murphy’s background before the judges interject to assert that they are false.

• IA-Sen: Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley touts his record of not having missed a Senate vote in the last 23 of his nearly 36 years in office before hammering Democrat Patty Judge over her attendance records from various stints in public service. While Grassley’s record-breaking attendance streak is remarkable, what’s noteworthy about this ad itself is that he even bothers attacking his challenger at all, given that the overwhelming consensus is that he’s comfortably ahead.

• IN-Sen: Democratic ex-Sen. Evan Bayh touts a college scholarship program created during his tenure as governor, noting that Republican Gov. Mike Pence even had the program named for Bayh.

• NV-Sen: Republican Joe Heck is out with two spots featuring several testimonials from Nevadans about how he saved people’s homes during the foreclosure crisis. Although they’re otherwise identical, one version features shots of Las Vegas and the other one Reno.

Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto released two ads in English (here and here), the first of which showcases a woman talking about how Cortez Masto helped her stay in her home during the housing crisis. It also briefly flashes text of a news story clip about how the former attorney general “played an important role in mortgage settlements totaling at least $1.9 billion that held banks accountable and helped Nevada homeowners hurt by the foreclosure crisis.” However, that’s the sort of message that would likely be much more effective if spoken instead of relying on viewers to quickly read it while the woman tells her story.

Cortez Masto’s second ad lambasts Heck for supporting Donald Trump, smartly playing several clips of Trump saying offensive things and Heck’s statements of support for him, something more candidates should do. One particularly memorable instance features Trump saying, “I would bomb the shit out of them,” after which a reporter is shown asking Heck, “You trust him having his finger on the nuclear button?” Heck responds, “I do … Why wouldn’t I?” Cortez Masto has a different ad in Spanish tying Heck to Trump, which of course can’t benefit from playing clips of either one speak and has to rely on translated quotes.

• MT-Gov: Republican Greg Gianforte is airing two new spots (here and here). His first one has the father of Republican Sen. Steve Daines vouch for his Montana ties, playing up Gianforte’s love of hunting and the outdoors. The second spot features Gianforte fly fishing, where he uses cringeworthy puns to bemoan all the negative attacks against him, saying he’ll keep trying to bring high-wage jobs to Montana. In both ads, Gianforte tries to play up his image as “one of us,” but of course doesn’t mention that he’s a billionaire who had claimed retirement wasn’t biblical.

• CA-49: Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is out with his initial two new ads (here and here), which will air during Monday’s presidential debate. The first one features various people praising Issa’s work during his time in office. The second attacks Democrat Doug Applegate over taxes and health care, saying he passes Nancy Pelosi’s litmus test.