Not much else for me to say, really.
I’ve confirmed 11,721,300 people who have selected Qualified Health Plans (QHPs) via the various ACA exchanges to date. Some data is still missing, though, so the actual number is likely closer to 12 million. There’s still 11 days left for people to enroll before the end of the 2017 Open Enrollment Period.
I’ve already dropped my final projection once. It started out at 13.8 million prior to the election, but I recently dropped it down to 13.3 million.
Yesterday I changed this to a wide range because of the unknown Trump/GOP Repeal factor.
On the down side, there’s solid evidence that some people aren’t bothering to sign up because they’re afraid of having their policy terminated in the middle of the year. That’s extremely unlikely to happen, but there’s a ton of confusion out there...and believe it or not, there is a small possibility of this happening.
On the up side, there’s also the possibility of a last-minute panic surge over the final few days of January. There’s typically a final surge anyway as procrastinators get in before the deadline, but it’s possible that this year it’ll be more dramatic than usual. Some people might decide that they’d better get in before the door slams shut to at least guarantee (?) coverage for 2017.
Therefore, my final projection is, for the first time, a wide range: Anywhere from 12.0 million — 13.2 million people. For comparison, last year 12.8 million signed up, so I’m basically assuming it’ll be flat year over year.
If Hillary was being sworn in tomorrow, I’d consider that disappointing. Under the circumstances, however, this is actually pretty damned good. Bear in mind that on Nov. 9th, I was afraid enrollments would flatline at less than 2 million:
Tonight I gave my 10-year old son a hug and kissed my wife goodnight. In a few minutes I’ll be cleaning up the kitchen and joining her in bed.
Tomorrow I will work and try to pretend it’s a normal day. It won’t be, of course, but I’ll try.
Saturday my whole family will be attending the Women’s March on Lansing here in Michigan.
#Resist
So, what will I be doing after tomorrow?
I embedded this song into a blog post back on April 30, 2014, after the dust had settled from the first Open Enrollment Period.
I posted it again on May 4, 2015, after the second enrollment period...and then a third time on June 29, 2015, right after the King v. Burwell Supreme Court decision was announced.
I was debating whether to hold off on doing so yet again until after January 31st, since that's the last day of the 2017 Open Enrollment Period...but upon further reflection, today is really more appropriate.
I've committed to keeping ACASignups.net operating through at least April 30, 2017...which is also around the point that pretty much all of the final reports from HHS, CMS, ASPE and so forth documenting the OE4 numbers should have been released. I'm also assuming that we'll have some idea about just where the hell the ACA repeal/replacement direction is at that point...although who the hell knows?
Anyway, the answer to the question "Where do we go from here?" is, quite simply...beats the fuck out of me.
To everyone who has donated in the past...or submitted data, or offered suggestions, or reposted/retweeted links to the site over the past 3 1/2 years...thank you.
I'm not closing up shop or anything (yet)...but if anyone's in a position to pony up a few bucks to help keep the site going for as long as possible, this is as good a time as any to do so.
It takes an awful lot of time and effort to maintain the ACA Signups website. If anyone’s in a position to help support the ACA Signups project, it would be tremendously appreciated.