Two new polls out of Virginia today. FIrst one is from Roanoke College:
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie by six percentage points (50%-44%), while Libertarian Cliff Hyra garners two percent of likely voters, and only four percent remain undecided, according to The Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 607 likely voters in Virginia between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 and the poll has a margin of error of +4 percent.
Democrat Justin Fairfax leads Republican Jill Vogel (45%-42%) in the race for lieutenant governor, and incumbent Democrat Mark Herring leads Republican John Adams (47%-42%) in Virginia's attorney general contest.
Both Northam (38%-28%) and Gillespie (38%-33%) are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by voters. While 20 percent still don't know enough about Gillespie to have an opinion about him, and 27 percent don't know enough about Northam, both figures continue to decline. Cliff Hyra remains largely unknown with 87 percent of respondents not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
The economy and health care continue to dominate as the most important issues in the campaign. Economic issues (jobs, growth, etc.) are seen as most important by 18 percent of respondents with another four percent saying taxes and two percent referencing debt. Health care was named as the most important issue by 16 percent of likely voters, while education was thought to be most important by eight percent and seven percent named immigration.
Among two important groups, Northam leads among ideological moderates (61%-28%), and holds an insignificant lead among political Independents (45%-42%). Northam has the support of 94 percent of Democrats, while Gillespie is supported by 93 percent of Republicans. Liberals favor Northam (89%-3%) while Conservatives prefer Gillespie (81%-15%).
Trump has a lousy 58% disapproval rating in this poll.
The second one comes from CNU’s Wason Center:
Three weeks before Virginians choose their next governor, current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam maintains a lead in a tightening race with former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie. Northam’s lead stands at 4% (48% to 44%), according to a Wason Center survey of likely voters. Libertarian Cliff Hyra polled at 3%, with 5% undecided. This is the first poll in the Wason Center’s tracking series in which Northam’s lead is within the survey’s margin of error. In the benchmark poll, released September 25, Northam’s lead stood at 6% (47% to 41%), and it grew to 7% (49% to 42%) in the first tracking poll, released October 9. The current survey is also the first in which Northam’s share shrank as Gillespie’s increased. “With even a weak third-party candidate on the ballot, the winner may not cross the 50% mark,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “But there’s plenty of room and time left for Northam to close the deal or for Gillespie to close the gap.”
Monmouth University will have their poll out later today. Also, it's not just polling Northam is leading Gillespie in:
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam maintained his commanding financial lead over Republican Ed Gillespie through September, new campaign finance filings show.
Northam, the current lieutenant governor, ended the month with $5.7 million on hand after raising $7.2 million in September, according to data compiled Tuesday by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.
Republican contender Ed Gillespie had $2.5 million as of Sept. 30 after raising $4.4 million.
In the down-ballot races, Attorney General Mark Herring (D) went head-to-head with his Republican challenger John Adams in September: Each raised about $1.6 million and spent more than $1.9 million. But Herring had $2.5 million in campaign accounts as of Sept. 30, 10 times the size of Adams’s remaining war chest.
Democratic lieutenant governor nominee Justin Fairfax in September raised $600,000, twice as much as his Republican rival, Jill Holtzman Vogel. He ended the month with $568,000 on hand to Vogel’s $168,000.
Democrats are hoping to make gains in the House of Delegates, where Republicans have a 66-to-34 majority and all 100 seats are on the ballot.
Overall, Democratic incumbents, challengers and leadership PACs raised $5.7 million while Republicans raised $3.6 million.
But Republicans are sitting on an enormous treasury built up over years: They had $8.4 million in accounts heading into October, while Democratic House candidates had $5.1 million.
Let’s seal the deal and bring in the big blue wave. Click below to donate and get involved with Northam’s campaign, the Democratic Ticket, and the state party to help bring in a Democratic majority:
Ralph Northam for Governor
Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate
Justin Fairfax for Lt. Governor
Mark Herring for Attorney General
Virginia Democratic Party