Latest news out of Virginia today courtesy of Quinnipiac University’s latest poll:
With strong support from women and non-white voters and a double-digit lead among independent voters, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 53 - 39 percent likely voter lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 2 percent.
Today's result compares to a 51 - 41 percent likely voter lead for Northam in a September 19 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
From October 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,088 Virginia likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
Women likely voters back Northam 61 - 31 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. Men are divided as 47 percent back Gillespie and 44 percent back Northam, with 2 percent for Hyra.
Independent voters back the Democrat 53 - 39 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 93 - 2 percent, with 2 percent for Hyra. Republicans back Gillespie 92 - 5 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra.
White likely voters are divided with 48 percent for Gillespie, 47 percent for Northam and 2 percent for Hyra. Non-white voters go to Northam 71 - 15 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra.
The economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor, 25 percent of Virginia voters say, while 23 percent say health care and 11 percent cite education.
"One number says it all. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's 14-point lead among independent voters is all you need to know about the race to be Virginia's next governor," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The two major-party candidates do about the same among their respective party bases, but a candidate who carries independent voters by double-digits is almost always a winner.
Virginia likely voters give Northam a 51 - 30 percent favorability rating.
Gillespie gets a negative 39 - 45 percent favorability rating.
For Hyra, 85 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. President Trump's Approval
Virginia likely voters disapprove 62 - 35 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 81 - 15 percent and white voters with no college degree approve 55 - 41 percent. White men are divided 49 - 49 percent. Every other party, gender, education and racial group disapproves.
If a candidate for governor supports President Trump, 51 percent of Virginia likely voters say they are less likely to vote for that candidate, as 18 percent say more likely and 30 percent say Trump support makes no difference in their vote.
Virginia likely voters disagree 61 - 23 percent with Trump's tweet that Northam is fighting for MS-13 gangs and for sanctuary cities.
"The drag from President Donald Trump's unpopularity on Republican Gillespie is gigantic. President Trump has a 35 percent approval rating in the Old Dominion - a very low number by historical standards," Brown added.
Now this poll seems like an outlier for sure but given Virginia’s blue trend, it makes a little more sense than Monmouth University’s poll yesterday. However, it’s no secret that the race is close:
Virginians will head to the polls to choose a new governor in less than a month, and as three new surveys show, the race is shaping up to be a close one.
Two surveys released Tuesday give the Democratic candidate, Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, a modest edge over Ed Gillespie, the Republican former chair of the Republican National Committee. One poll, from Christopher Newport University, puts Northam up by 4 points ― the first time, the pollsters note, that they’ve found his lead within the margin of error. The other, from Roanoke College, gives him a 6-point advantage. Both are in keeping with previous surveys of the race, which have largely found Northam ahead, but far from comfortably so.
A third poll, from Monmouth University, shows Northam taking 47 percent to Gillespie’s 48 percent. That the poll shows Northam underwater for the first time isn’t in itself especially significant, beyond indicating that the race is indeed tight. Several previous surveys, including a July Monmouth poll, found the two men tied. But the new results represent a downturn for Northam from the outlet’s previous poll, which gave him a 5-point edge.
“This has never been more than a five point race in Monmouth’s polling, and that means either candidate has a very real shot at winning this thing,” Patrick Murray, Monmouth’s polling director, said in a statement. “We have seen lots of little movement that has either helped or hurt each candidate but with neither one being able to break out.”
Murray credited the shift in part to Gillespie’s controversial ad campaign painting his opponent as soft on crime, and accusing him of enabling the MS-13 gang.
And while Quinnipiac might be painting a rosier picture here, their poll does make me have faith that Gillespie’s MS-13 strategy isn’t a winning strategy for the GOP:
“If something were to happen and we were to lose that governor’s race, shit, Republicans are going to want to make every race in the country a referendum on MS-13,” said one Democratic strategist working on a number of races around the country. “We’re getting full Donald Trump primal scream racism up on the air right now. We’d better be able to beat it. … We don’t want these guys to learn the way to win a race is to turn it into a white power argument.”
While Democrats see Gillespie’s decision to pivot hard right on hot-button cultural issues like immigration as one way to shore up his weak base, they admit that they better be able to defeat him in Virginia if they hope to hold Senate seats in even tougher territory next year and make a real play for winning back the House.
Virginia has long been a harbinger of future elections. Big wins by Govs. George Allen (R) in 1993, Tim Kaine (D) in 2005 and Bob McDonnell (R) in 2009 all were early signs that their parties would have huge success at the ballot box the next year. Even current Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s (D) closer-than-expected 2013 win against hardline conservative Ken Cuccinelli (R) was an early sign that all was not well for the Democratic Party heading into a disastrous 2014 midterm cycle.
A trio of public polls released Tuesday found Gillespie within the margin of error, including one that showed Gillespie with a lead for the first time in the campaign.
A loss in a state President Obama and Hillary Clinton carried could also deal a major psychic blow to Democrats looking to bounce back in the age of Trump — especially after a disappointing loss in an open House seat in Georgia and near misses in a number of other heavily Republican House seats across the country.
“The history is really clear that Virginia is the early warning system,” said Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson, a Virginia native who’s a veteran of the Clinton campaign and dozens of others in the state and nationally. “No one should expect this to be anything but close and no one should downplay how important it is that Democrats win. You can write off a special election in a congressional district we had no business competing in in the first place as an aberration. Virginia will be not an aberration but an indication of where we are in our efforts to claw back from 2016.”
And don’t forget, you know who is coming to Richmond tomorrow to rile up the base:
Former President Barack Obama’s rally on Thursday evening with Ralph Northam, the Democratic nominee for governor, is set for the Richmond Convention Center.
The campaign said Thursday’s rally will be free and open to the public.
Northam’s campaign announced Tuesday night that a limited number of tickets to the rally will be made available to the general public at 10 a.m. Wednesday. They will be distributed on a first-come, first-served basis at the Richmond Coliseum Ticket Office at the 5th Street entrance, 601 E. Leigh St.
Earlier Tuesday tickets were made available on a first-come, first-served basis to those who had pre-registered for the event at Northam’s campaign website.
Those who pre-registered were told to line up at the Coliseum on Tuesday for a chance to claim a ticket to the rally, leading to a long line that snaked around the arena.
On Thursday, the doors will open at 5 p.m. for the rally at the convention center at 403 N. 3rd St.
But let’s not wait until then and let’s take nothing for granted. Click below to donate and get involved with Northam, the Democratic Ticket and the state party to bring in a Democratic majority:
Ralph Northam for Governor
Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate
Justin Fairfax for Lt. Governor
Mark Herring for Attorney General
Virginia Democratic Party