GOP pollster, OH Predictive Insights, released their poll on the upcoming U.S. Senate race in Arizona. First, the GOP primary:
Moving on, before we get into the head-to-head matchups for the Arizona U.S. Senate Primary and General election, let’s see where the main contenders sit regarding name ID and favorability.
The key findings were among the two Republican challengers regarding party affiliation and geographic location.
· Kelli Ward has 85% name ID among Republicans; with 59% favorable and 26% unfavorable.
· Martha McSally has 60% name ID among Republicans; with 48% favorable and 13% unfavorable.
· Among Independents Kelli Ward has 80% name ID; with 36% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
· Martha McSally has 56% name ID among Independents with 29% favorable and 27% unfavorable.
Based on geographic location Martha McSally has 97% name ID in Pima county where much of her current congressional district covers although she is far less known in Maricopa county (57%) and rural Arizona (44%).
Arizona’s Maricopa county has almost 2/3rd’s of the 2018 General Election vote but that is also where Kelli Ward is underwater with a 34% favorable / 47% unfavorable rating. Although she performs much stronger in rural Arizona with 45% favorable / 31% unfavorable.
Continuing with the subject of Kelli Ward and Martha McSally, if the election were held today, who would likely Republican primary voters vote for? Don’t worry, we have the answer.
Currently, Ward has an advantage of +7-points over McSally where Ward’s most notable strength derives from males, high school or less education level, rural Arizona, and self-identified “very conservative” voters – basically, Trump’s base. McSally’s strength lies in self-identified “somewhat conservative” and “moderate” voters and a +30-point advantage in Pima County.
Now the general election:
Republicans hold a +12 Republican likely voter advantage in the 2018 General Election, and that’s how we conducted this poll, with a +12 Republican advantage. But in both matchups the Democrat is winning by a very slim margin. McSally has the best chance being 1-point behind Sinema with Ward close by trailing by 3-points, but they’re both in the margin of error.
So, why is a Democrat leading when Republicans hold a +12 point advantage? The answer is slopes.
Whether it was Ward or McSally against Sinema, support based on political ideology was almost identical for either potential GOP nominee. This chart probably looks familiar because it basically mirrors Trump’s numbers in this lens.
This is going to be one tough race but it’s one seat we can flip blue. Click here to donate and get involved with Sinema’s campaign.